Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05HALIFAX119
2005-05-25 12:13:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Halifax
Cable title:  

FEDERAL LIBERALS SURVIVE CRITICAL TEST IN LABRADOR

Tags:  PGOV MARR MCAP CA 
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UNCLAS HALIFAX 000119 

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR MCAP CA
SUBJECT: FEDERAL LIBERALS SURVIVE CRITICAL TEST IN LABRADOR
BY-ELECTION

REF: 04 HALIFAX 210

UNCLAS HALIFAX 000119

SIPDIS

FOR WHA/CAN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV MARR MCAP CA
SUBJECT: FEDERAL LIBERALS SURVIVE CRITICAL TEST IN LABRADOR
BY-ELECTION

REF: 04 HALIFAX 210


1. Summary: Prime Minister Paul Martin and the governing
Liberals have added one more seat to their ranks in the House of
Commons with their win in a federal by-election. A key issue in
the Labrador campaign, which saw a string of national political
figures on the stump in the huge but sparsely-populated riding,
was the future of the airbase at Goose Bay. END SUMMARY


2. In one of the most closely watched contests in recent years,
the Martin government got a shot in the arm with a decisive
victory (51.5% of approximately 11,000 votes cast) in the May 24
federal by-election in the riding of Labrador. The win by
Liberal candidate Todd Russell was vitally important to the
minority government that is dependent upon every single vote to
ensure its survival in the House of Commons. The victory was
not, however, unexpected: Liberals have only lost the Labrador
riding once, in 1968. Russell's victory means a new
configuration in the House of Commons so that with the continued
support of the NDP the Martin government now has more assurance
of survival in the coming months.


3. The prospect that the political scene could have been much
different if Russell's closest rival, Conservative Graham Letto,
had won the by-election meant that an inordinate amount of
attention focused on the riding and its 25,000 inhabitants.
Given the high stakes, as one of our Labrador contacts quipped:
"there was no hand left unshaken, no baby un-kissed nor any
favors un-promised," as a steady stream of political
heavyweights turned up on the campaign trail. On the Liberal
side Tory-turned-Liberal Belinda Stronach was one of several
cabinet ministers who showed up to support Russell's campaign,
while Conservative leader Stephen Harper and deputy leader Peter
MacKay were both on hand to campaign for Letto. There was also
no shortage of issues, chief among them the revitalization of
the Goose Bay Air Base, which the Liberals and Conservatives
both pledged to support.


4. COMMENT: While Russell's victory has prompted the Ottawa
pundits and strategists to begin a new round of scenario
building for the future of the Liberals, for the voters of
Labrador the future is focused on one key issue: what becomes of
the Goose Bay Air Force Base, which Ambassador Cellucci visited
in August 2004 (reftel). With unemployment near 20% in the
riding, there will be no danger of the issue fading away,
especially since the provincial government has been campaigning
aggressively for Ottawa to invest in the base's future. END
COMMENT.

HILL

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