GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS COME UP SHORT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 000533

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EC
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL PROTESTS COME UP SHORT

REF: A) QUITO 852 B) GUAYAQUIL 132


1. Summary: Guayaquil joined the ranks of protesting Ecuadorian
cities when on April 18 approximately 25,000 residents turned
out for mayor Jamie Nebot's (Social Christian Party - PSC) anti-
government/pro-Guayaquil march, and a much smaller number joined
presidential cousin Renan Borbua and Guayas governor Efren Rocas
in a rally to support president Gutierrez. Lacking the fervor
of Quito protests (Reftel A),both demonstrations took on a
festive rather than confrontational atmosphere, with no major
incidents reported and no anti-US sentiment displayed. Overall,
the afternoon's events were short-lived and received limited
media coverage, contrasting greatly with the large, extended
protests that have plagued the capital for the past week. End
summary.

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OPPOSITION MARCH PEACEFUL AND UNEVENTFUL
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2. Following days of ambiguity surrounding Guayaquil mayor and
opposition party member Jaime Nebot's planned response to the
country's political unrest, on Saturday April 16 he declared he
would lead a motorized caravan through the city streets on April

18. Initially, the purpose of the mobilization was to demand
the lifting of the state of emergency and for a resolution to
Gutierrez' decree dissolving the Supreme Court (Ref A).
However, after both issues were resolved prior to his protest,
Nebot changed the focus to support the creation of a new, non-
political Supreme Court and a general petition to the central
government to comply with its obligations to the city of
Guayaquil (Ref B).


3. Though fewer in number, participants represented a greater
cross-section of society than in Nebot's January "Marcha
Blanca," where the elite of Guayaquil were much in evidence.
(Reftel B) The lack of a clearly defined goal and message from
the protest's leader resulted in a more subdued crowd that
looked more to be participating in a civic parade than in a
demonstration against the government. Nebot walked the route,
accompanied by Guayas prefect Nicolas Lapentti, and upon
reaching the riverfront destination, offered a few words to
congregated press, but refused calls from the crowd to give a
speech.


4. Besides Lapentti, few luminaries joined in Nebot's
opposition march. A few of the lesser-known chamber of
production heads participated, but the presidents of the large
and influential chambers of industry and commerce did not.
Despite his presence in Guayaquil, former president, current
congressman, and PSC leader Leon Febres Cordero avoided the
protest, telling the press he did not agree with Nebot's
handling of the march, and expressing his desire for a more
aggressive anti-Gutierrez position from Guayaquil.

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PRO GOVERNMENT CAMP HAS LITTLE IMPACT
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5. Soon after Nebot called for a mobilization in Guayaquil and
neighboring cities, leaders of the president's political party
(Sociedad Patriotica - SP) revealed that they would hold a rally
to support the administration. This was followed by reports
that Bucaram's PRE party would organize a counter march to
Nebot's assembly, to start and end in the same points as the
mayor's. The PRE was able to rally some support in its January
counter march to Nebot's "Marcha Blanca," but in the end did not
produce on April 18.


6. The rally organized by the SP gathered several thousand
followers, though overall it was unable to demonstrate a large
outpouring of support for the president. Led by former
congressman Renan Borbua, who in addition to being a first
cousin of Gutierrez is the SP party director for the Guayas
province, the march was intended to demonstrate the president's
backing outside of Quito. With Guayas governor Efren Rocas by
his side, Borbua intended to make his way across the city to the
government offices downtown. However, police blocked their
route to prevent the crowd from crossing Nebot's march. Media
coverage focused on Nebot's march, leaving the SP with very
little in terms of achieving their goal.

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NON-POLITICAL ORGANIZERS FAIL TO DELIVER
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7. Press reports indicated that as many as five separate
marches were scheduled to take place in Guayaquil on April 18.
For the anti-government camp, in addition to the widely
publicized motorized caravan headed by the mayor, the left-
leaning and at times violent national teacher and university
student unions were to have organized groups to take to the
streets. These two groups were politically active in the 1980s
and 1990s, but have been largely dormant in the past few years.
Thus, there was some anticipation that the current political
situation would be the catalyst to bring them out. However, the
teacher union's calls for protest amounted to nothing, and the
university student organization turned out only 50 students.

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COMMENT
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8. The incessant honking of horns made the April 18 protest in
Guayaquil noisier than its predecessor in January, but it lacked
the same level of energy in every other sense. Rather than
being born out of a strong consensus for the need to effect
change, the demonstrations seemed more to be about not wanting
to be left out of the fray. Nebot has shown himself to be the
more moderate mayor, avoiding the bombast of his Quito
counterpart. Leading this protest he seemed more restrained
than usual and it did not appear as if his heart was in the
Guayaquil demonstration. Whether that was because of Febres
Cordero's criticisms of his choice of action, the lack of a
cause resonant with Guayaquilenos, or his preference to maintain
a measured stance, the result was that his organized protest
appeared half-hearted, undermining its likely effect on the
central government. End comment.

HERBERT