PSC,S LEGACY THWARTING IT'S PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GUAYAQUIL 001090

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR EC
SUBJECT: PSC,S LEGACY THWARTING IT'S PRESIDENTIAL PROSPECTS?


CLASSIFIED BY: CONSUL GENERAL KEVIN HERBERT, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B&D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: OPERATING FORCEFULLY FROM THE SHADOWS,
ECUADOR,S SOCIAL CHRISTIAN PARTY (PSC) AND ITS ENTRENCHED
LEADER, FORMER PRESIDENT LEON FEBRES CORDERO (LFC),HAVE
PROVEN THE COAST,S MOST FORMIDABLE PARTY AND INTEREST GROUP.
LFC,S DOMINEERING PRESENCE MAY ALSO BE THE ROOT CAUSE OF
THE PARTY'S LACK OF SUCCESS WINNING THE PRESIDENCY SINCE HE
LAST PRESIDED (1984-88). A GENERATIONAL SHIFT SHAKING LFC,S
TIGHTFISTED REIGN IS NEEDED TO IMPROVE THE PSC'S PRESIDENTIAL
PROSPECTS IN 2006. END SUMMARY.

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FIRST-ROUND VICTOR, SECOND-ROUND VANQUISHED
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2. (SBU) IN A FRAGMENTED SYSTEM WITH 17 REGISTERED PARTIES
AND A FICKLE PUBLIC, THE PSC RANKS CLOSEST TO A POLITICAL
DYNASTY IN THIS COUNTRY, AT LEAST IN ITS BASE ON THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT PUT FORWARD A WINNING PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE SINCE LFC (NO OTHER PARTY HAS BEEN ELECTED TWICE TO
THE PRESIDENCY SINCE THE RETURN TO DEMOCRACY 25 YEARS AGO,
EITHER),IT HAS MAINTAINED THE LARGEST BLOCK IN CONGRESS OVER
THE PAST TWENTY YEARS, WINNING AN AVERAGE 20 PERCENT OF
CONGRESSIONAL SEATS (IT CURRENTLY HAS 25%). THE PSC,S
HABITUAL FAILURE TO CAPTURE THE EXECUTIVE OFFICE HAS PROVEN
TO BE A MIXED BLESSING.


3. (SBU) FIRST-ROUND PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF AND CONGRESSIONAL
ELECTIONS TAKE PLACE SIMULTANEOUSLY AND THE PSC USES THIS
TIMING TO ITS ADVANTAGE, CAPITALIZING ON PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATES WITH STRONG COASTAL APPEAL TO BOOST ITS
CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATES. AS A RESULT, THE PSC HAS
MAINTAINED ITS INFLUENCE IN CONGRESS AND WIELDS ITS
CONGRESSIONAL INFLUENCE TO WIN CONCESSIONS FROM THE EXECUTIVE
BRANCH.


4. (SBU) IN THE TWO-ROUND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PROCESS, THE
PSC CANDIDATE MADE IT TO THE SECOND ROUND IN FIVE OUT OF THE
LAST EIGHT ELECTIONS; WINNING THE FINAL ROUND ONLY ONCE.
OTHER PARTIES HAVE FARED EVEN WORSE, WITH TWO (DP, URP)
VIRTUALLY DISAPPEARING AFTER ELECTING A PRESIDENT. IN
ECUADOR'S NOTORIOUSLY UNSTABLE DEMOCRACY, THE PSC,S FAILURE
TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY HAS ONE ADVANTAGE FOR THE PARTY, SINCE
IT HAS PROVEN MARKEDLY EASIER TO BRING DOWN PRESIDENTS THAN
TO MAINTAIN THEM IN POWER.


5. (SBU) THE CORE PSC SUPPORT COMES FROM THE COAST, CENTERED
IN ECUADOR'S LARGEST CITY OF GUAYAQUIL. THIS SUPPORT IS
SOLID, BASED ON A DECADE OF MUNICIPAL ACHIEVEMENT AND THE
BOOSTING OF CIVIC PRIDE UNDER LFC AND CURRENT GUAYAQUIL MAYOR
JAIME NEBOT; THE PERSONAL CHARISMA OF THESE TWO LEADERS; AND
THEIR ABILITY TO DELIVER BENEFITS FOR CRONIES AND
CONSTITUENTS. THIS BASE OF SUPPORT ENSURES THE PSC'S STAYING
POWER IN CONGRESS, DESPITE HAVING LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE OTHER
MAJOR POPULATION CENTER, THE HIGHLANDS "SIERRA," WHICH IS
DOMINATED BY SECOND-LARGEST PARTY, THE DEMOCRATIC LEFT.

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GOVERNING FROM THE SHADOWS
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6. (SBU) THE PSC HAS SURVIVED WITHIN ECUADOR'S HIGHLY
FRAGMENTED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT BY ACTING FROM THE WINGS
INSTEAD OF CENTER-STAGE. PSC BOSSES LFC AND NEBOT PULL
STRINGS OR TAKE TO THE STREETS TO ORCHESTRATE CONGRESSIONAL,
JUDICIAL AND EXECUTIVE DECISIONS. BOTH LEADERS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY VOCAL AND DEMANDING, WINNING SIGNIFICANT EXTRA
BENEFITS FROM THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT APPARATUS FOR THEIR CITY
OR THEIR SUPPORTERS.


7. (C) THE PSC,S DEXTERITY AT BACK-ROOM GOVERNANCE WAS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE FALL OF FORMER PRESIDENT LUCIO GUTIERREZ.
GUTIERREZ FIRST COURTED AND WON PSC SUPPORT AFTER LOSING THE
BACKING OF THE LEFTIST COALITION THAT BROUGHT HIM INTO
OFFICE. HOWEVER, CONCESSIONS TO THE PSC ULTIMATELY FAILED TO
SECURE HIS SURVIVAL, WHEN LFC OBJECTED TO GUTIERREZ' EFFORTS
TO BUILD HIS OWN PARTY'S SUPPORT BASE IN THE COASTAL REGION
DURING CONFLICTIVE SECTIONAL ELECTIONS IN OCTOBER 2004.
LFC'S DECISION TO PURSUE IMPEACHMENT CHARGES RESULTED IN A
CONCERTED, AND INITIALLY SUCCESSFUL, ATTEMPT BY GUTIERREZ TO
REDUCE LFC,S INFLUENCE, INCLUDING REMOVING THE HEAVILY
LFC-INFLUENCED SUPREME COURT. ALTHOUGH THESE MOVES WERE
POPULAR AMONG THE GENERAL POPULATION, RESULTING IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN GUTIERREZ,S POPULARITY, THEY
OFFENDED UPPER-CLASS QUITENOS AND ULTIMATELY CONTRIBUTED TO
HIS OUSTER.


8. (C) AS HIS POLITICAL INFLUENCE INCREASES, LFC SEEMS TO
RETREAT DEEPER INTO THE SHADOWS. POLITICS ARE STILL HIS
LIFE, AND MORE THAN EVER HE SEES HIMSELF AND HIS BRAND OF
CONSERVATIVE POLITICS AS THE SAVIOR OF THE COUNTRY. BUT HE
NO LONGER HAS TO RELY ON OCCUPYING VISIBLE PUBLIC POSITIONS
SUCH AS PRESIDENT OR MAYOR TO WIELD HIS POWER. OVER THE
YEARS HE HAS BUILT UP A LARGE RESERVE OF FAITHFUL FOLLOWERS
IN KEY POSITIONS THROUGHOUT THE JUDICIARY, PARASTATAL
ENTERPRISES SUCH AS PACIFICTEL, CONGRESS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.
NAME THE ISSUE, AND HELP IS ONLY A PHONE CALL AWAY, AS
ANYONE KNOWS WHO HAS BEEN INVITED TO THE DEN OF HIS MODEST
HOME IN GUAYAQUIL, WHERE THE PHONES THAT LINE HIS DESK NEVER
STOP RINGING.


9. (SBU) EVEN AT AGE 74, THE SALTY POLITICAL WARRIOR SHOWS
NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN. THOUGH A SITTING DEPUTY IN
CONGRESS, FEBRES CORDERO AVOIDS SPENDING TIME IN QUITO FOR
UNSPECIFIED HEALTH REASONS, ) AND IN FACT HAS NOT BEEN TO
THE CAPITAL FOR ALMOST TWO YEARS. HOWEVER, NEITHER CANCER
NOR THE REMOVAL OF ONE EYE HAS SEEMED TO AFFECT HIS POLITICAL
FACULTIES. UNTIL THE AGING LEADER PASSES FROM THE SCENE, THE
PSC IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE.


10. (C) MORE AND MORE WE HEAR THAT LFC,S TRUSTY SIDEKICK
AND SON-IN-LAW MIGUEL ORELLANA NOT ONLY ACTS AS THE PARTY
BOSS, ENFORCER,, BUT THAT HE HAS USED HIS RELATIONSHIP
WITH LFC AND THE ACCESS THAT AFFORDS HIM TO ENGAGE IN SERIOUS
CORRUPTION. THOUGH NO ONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO PROVE CORRUPTION
CHARGES, RUMORS OF HIS INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONSTANT SACKING OF
THE STATE TELECOMMUNICATIONS COMPANY, PACIFICTEL, AND DIRTY
OIL DEALS ARE WIDESPREAD. REGARDLESS OF THE LACK OF PROOF,
THE PERCEPTION OF CORRUPTION EXISTS, AND SEEMS TO BE SERVING
TO ALIENATE MANY IN THE PSC.


11. (C) LFC IS NOT PERSONALLY ABOVE USING HIS INFLUENCE TO
HIS OWN ECONOMIC BENEFIT. MOST NOTABLE AMONG MANY RUMORED
ECONOMIC INTERESTS IS HIS ECUASAL SALT MONOPOLY, MAINTAINED
VIA THE MANIPULATION OF GOE REGULATORS.

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WINDS OF GENERATIONAL CHANGE?
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12. (SBU) WHILE THE PSC THRIVES ON THE COAST, THE
OVERBEARING MANNER OF LFC HAS BECOME A LIABILITY ELSEWHERE.
EX-PRESIDENT GUTIERREZ CAPITALIZED ON ANTI-LFC SENTIMENT FOR
MANY MONTHS AFTER BEATING BACK LFC'S IMPEACHMENT ATTEMPT.


13. (SBU) LFC'S DOMINATION OF THE PSC HAS ALSO LED TO A
MARKED DETERIORATION OF HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH NEBOT,
DESCRIBED BY PARTY MEMBERS AS VIRTUAL ESTRANGEMENT OF THE TWO
FORMERLY CLOSE LEADERS. THE BREACH WAS EXACERBATED BY LFC'S
PRECIPITOUS DECISION TO CHALLENGE GUTIERREZ WITHOUT THE VOTES
TO GUARANTEE IMPEACHMENT. LFC PUBLICLY CRITICIZED HIS FORMER
PROTEGE'S TACTICS ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS. DURING THE SHOWDOWN
WITH GUTIERREZ, WE HEARD FROM NEBOT'S SUPPORTERS THAT A SPLIT
WAS POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY, GIVEN NEBOT'S RELUCTANCE TO BREAK
WITH HIS FORMER MENTOR WHILE LFC IS ALIVE. WHILE ON THE DAY
OF GUTIERREZ, DOWNFALL NEBOT TURNED DOWN A REQUEST FROM LFC
TO PUT PEOPLE INTO THE GUAYAQUIL STREETS TO PROTEST THE
FLAGGING PRESIDENT, HE DID AGREE TO JOIN THE DETERMINED LFC
IN MAKING CALLS TO MILITARY LEADERS URGING THEIR PUBLIC
SUPPORT OF PALACIO.


14. (SBU) WITH THE PARTY DIVIDED, AND NEBOT APPARENTLY NOT
PRESENTLY INTERESTED IN A THIRD ATTEMPT AT THE PRESIDENCY,
THE PSC HAS NOT YET NAMED A CANDIDATE FOR THE 2006 ELECTIONS.
LFC-ALLY AND PSC CONGRESS MEMBER CYNTHIA VITERI HAS BEEN
INFORMALLY FLOATED AS A POSSIBILITY, AS HAS GUAYAS PREFECT
(U.S. GOVERNOR-EQUIVALENT),NICOLAS LAPENTTI. THE PUBLIC
VIVIDLY RECALLS THE STILL-FRESH AND ICONIC IMAGE OF VITERI
SWEARING IN ALFREDO PALACIO IMMEDIATELY AFTER REMOVING
GUTIERREZ FROM OFFICE. THOUGH NOT CONSIDERED A POLITICAL
HEAVYWEIGHT, LAPENTTI'S BACKGROUND AND NAME RECOGNITION ADD
TO HIS CREDIBILITY. HE HAS BEEN REELECTED PREFECT THREE
TIMES, IS TALL AND HANDSOME, HAS A FORMER ECUADORIAN BEAUTY
QUEEN WIFE, AND IS THE FATHER OF TWO SONS PLAYING ON THE
INTERNATIONAL PROFESSIONAL TENNIS CIRCUIT.


15. (SBU) REGARDLESS, BOTH WOULD FACE A CHALLENGE OUTSIDE
THEIR PARTY'S TRADITIONAL STRONGHOLDS AS PARTY LEADERS
CONTINUE TO EVINCE LITTLE INTEREST IN BROADENING THEIR BASE
BY APPEALING TO MORE NATIONAL SENTIMENTS. AFTER LFC AND
NEBOT, NO PSC LEADER HAS STRONG COUNTRYWIDE RECOGNITION.


16. (SBU) COMMENT: WITH OTHER PARTIES LOOKING TO THE
YOUNGER GENERATION FOR NEW LEADERS WITH NATIONAL VISION, LFC
HAS PROVEN UNWILLING TO CEDE REAL POWER TO ANY PARTY
"UPSTARTS." INSTEAD, HE SEEMS CONTENT TO RULE FROM THE
SHADOWS, USING HIS FOOTHOLD IN GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS
(CONGRESS, JUDICIARY, PARASTATALS) TO INFLUENCE POLICY.
THOSE ACTIONS BRING BENEFITS TO HIS COASTAL BASE, WHICH VOTES
PSC FOR CONGRESS AND LOCAL POSITIONS, BUT NOT TO THE REST OF
THE COUNTRY, WHICH RESENTS HIS CONTROL.


17. (C) AT THE SAME TIME, LFC HAS SO TIGHTLY MOLDED THE
PSC'S WORKINGS AND SPOILS TO HIS OWN WILL THAT HIS DEMISE
WOULD CREATE A POWER VACUUM, WHICH ONLY NEBOT IS IN A
POSITION TO FILL. NEVERTHELESS, NEBOT, THE PSC'S MOST VIABLE
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL NOT RUN FOR
THAT OFFICE UNTIL LFC'S INFLUENCE IN THE PSC IS DIMINISHED.
END COMMENT.
HERBERT