GUAYAQUIL'S LATEST PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUAYAQUIL 001039

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR EC
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL'S LATEST PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDER

REF: 04 GUAYAQUIL 01514


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Having all but faded away after years of
existence, the Concentration of Popular Forces party (CFP) is
making a last-ditch effort to save itself by naming Jaime
Damerval as its candidate for the 2006 presidential
elections. An outspoken Minister of Government under Lucio
Gutierrez, Damerval is respected but resented in Guayaquil.
Memories (and grudges) are long here, and his much-publicized
confrontation with Mayor Jaime Nebot over the city's handling
of security (reftel) will likely hurt him in the city.
Nonetheless, the CFP hopes to increase his chances by
courting the support of the Ecuadorian Roldosista Party of
exiled ex-president Abdala Bucaram (PRE). In a conversation
with PolOff, Damerval expressed concern that the Bolivarian
movement may present some obstacles, particularly if leaders
tap former MinFin Rafael Correa as their candidate. End
summary.

THE CFP'S RENAISSANCE
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2. (U) Founded in the early 1940's, the CFP's real heyday
began under the leadership of Asaad Bucaram (uncle of PRE's
leader Abdala). An immigrant from Lebanon, Asaad rose to
legendary status in local politics in the 1970s. He posed
such a threat to the traditional ruling classes that they
blocked his run at the presidency by passing a law preventing
foreign-born citizens from attaining president's office.
Soon after, the party's power peaked and the final blow came
when a faction of Roldosista supporters broke off in the
early 1980s to support the younger Bucaram. Though but a
sliver of their former incarnation, the CFP has managed to
stay on the electoral rolls and currently has one member in
Congress (Jorge Montero from Loja). Despite their poor
standing, in many circles along the coast, the CFP still
benefits from Asaad's relatively untarnished reputation.

"I'M JUST WHAT ECUADOR NEEDS"
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3. (SBU) In a recent meeting with PolOff, Damerval expounded
on the party's strategy to recoup its former prominence and
avoid political extinction. He claimed he accepted the CFP's
invitation because he believes himself to be an ideal
candidate, with an upstanding reputation and unattachment to
any formal political affiliations. Perhaps even more
compelling, he said, was his proven track record as a vocal
opponent of the PSC. Unlike former VP Leon Roldos, ("so
timid that if he does make it to Carondelet it will be
without ever having spoken out about anything or anyone"),
Damerval said he would take stands on even the most
contentious issues.


4. (SBU) Although he does not plan to truly campaign for
another six months, he has begun working with the CFP on an
overall strategy. Their plan is to revive the party from the
ashes by bringing PRE followers back in to the fold. As the
"mother of the PRE," the CFP is already attracting
disillusioned PRE followers who have given up on Abdala
Bucaram ever returning, he said. PRE leaders themselves seem
to be of the same opinion. They recently approached the CFP
and offered a vice presidential candidate, sealing the two
party's alliance. Damerval said his early announcement was
an effort to break the cycle wherein only two coastal
candidates were discussed: Roldos and banana king Alvaro
Noboa.

POSSIBLE BOLIVARIAN MOVEMENT CANDIDATE?
--------------


5. (SBU) Damerval is not concerned about either Roldos or
Noboa as competitors. However, he said he was troubled about
the rise of the "Bolivarian" movement in Guayaquil. While
the movement's leader Rene Vargas is based in Manabi, he is
really stirring things up in Guayaquil, with plenty of help
from Carlos Solorzano (former Supreme Court justice who was
one of the coup-plotting triumvirate that overthrew former
president Jamil Mahuad in 2000). According to Damerval, the
Bolivarians have already approached Correa--whom he also sees
as heavily involved in the movement--about running for
president. Vargas and Solorzano do not necessarily think
that Correa would win, he added. However, they believe
Correa would generate a lot of attention to the Bolivarian
movement and their agenda, perhaps even disrupting the free
trade agreement with the U.S. Damerval had participated in a
panel discussion with Correa last week and called Correa's
speech "totally Chavista."

COMMENT
--------------


6. (SBU) The CFP's strategy to pick off PRE supporters could
give it the boost they need to stave off oblivion. Its
populist platform will likely resonate with some coastal
Ecuadorians, dividing the vote there. Damerval retains his
well deserved reputation as a fierce critic of the PSC and
its ossified leader, Leon Febres Cordero, which was enhanced
since he locked horns with Febres Cordero's erstwhile
protg, Guayaquil mayor Nebot. The PSC will seek to exploit
Damerval's move to quash Nebot's plans to arm private
security forces in the city, which provoked the popular
`Marcha Blanca,' in which Nebot declared himself the defender
of Guayaquil's historic independence. While a force to be
reckoned with, Damerval lacks the charisma to connect with
the common man.


7. (SBU) Thus far, the only other coastal pre-candidate is
Alvaro Noboa, whom Damerval dismissed as nothing more than a
"screeching novelty." For his part, Roldos seems to be
backing away from his own candidacy, cloaking his pre-
candidacy in the guise of a national reform project. We
certainly expect many more coastal candidates will eventually
enter the fray before this is over (the campaign period does
not formally begin until the latter half of 2006).

JOHNSON
N