GUYANA ELECTION PREVIEW #2: CALL FOR LONG-TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GEORGETOWN 001350

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION PREVIEW #2: CALL FOR LONG-TERM
OBSERVERS, DIFFICULTIES WITH REGISTRATION AND BIOMETRICS

REF: GEORGETOWN 1271

Classified By: Political Officer Benjamin Canavan
For reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) SUMMARY. While progress continues on some fronts,
three major problems loom with preparations for the 2006
elections: a) the urgent need to secure long-term observers
to monitor the registration process that began in October; b)
hiccups in the plan to scan and cross-match all registered
voters' fingerprints; c) some citizens' inability to obtain
birth certificates needed to register. The next donor
meeting will take place on January 5. END SUMMARY.

Donor Consensus that Long-Term Observers are Critical
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2. (C) The Commonwealth, European Union, and CARICOM all have
preliminary plan to send short-term observers to monitor the
July/August polling-day mechanics. However, the process of
casting and counting votes is not/not the chief concern for
the upcoming elections and the blessing of short-term
poll-watchers who were not in Guyana for the registration
process will not convince disgruntled losing parties that the
election was free and fair. The ABCEU donor group members
(America, Britain, Canada, European Union, United Nations)
all agree that a long-term Election Observation Mission (EOM)
should monitor the voter registration process that began in
October and the creation of the 2006 voter list. These are
the two most contentious issues for the Guyanese electorate.


3. (C) The focus of post-election violence in the last three
elections has been the PNC's loss in polls declared free and
fair by all observers. With reason or not, the PNC has
blamed its losses on failures in the registration process and
compilation of the voters list. In the run-up to the 2006
election, PNC leaders are making very clear in private
conversations that they dispute the legitimacy of the
registration process and that the elections should be
postponed two years so they can be held "properly". In the
meantime, they propose an interim power-sharing government
for two years. (Note: The PNC concerns are interesting given
that all GECOM decisions regarding the 2006 elections so far
have been made by unanimous votes, including the
PNC-nominated commissioners.)


4. (C) The worrisome difference for the 2006 election is that
this time some PNC leaders are suggesting that "certain
elements", who are always "unnamed" and "uncontrollable",
will use pre-election violence to prevent/postpone the
elections while the international community forces President
Jagdeo to let the PNC into an interim power-sharing
government. Ambassador, EmbOffs, and other donor missions
reiterate the unacceptability and folly of this strategy at
every official and private opportunity. An independent,
credible, expert evaluation of the registration process by a
long-term EOM could significantly affect Guyanese perceptions
of the registration process and could reduce the potential
for pre-election violence. The opportunity to do this will
be gone by the time short-term election observers arrive.

Fishing for Long-term Observers:
5 Lines in Water, No Catches Yet
--------------

5. (SBU) Guyana's 2006 general elections began with the
opening of continuous registration in October 2005. Speaking
with international donors in June 2005, President Jagdeo made
clear that he wanted as many observers as possible for as
long as possible. Unfortunately, his office did not send the
invitation letters to potential observer organizations until
September 2005, only a month before the registration process
began. The Commonwealth, EU and Carter Center have already
begun discussions with the GoG regarding plans for observer
missions.


6. (C) The Commonwealth sent an Observer Assessment Mission
in early December. The Commonwealth's Special Advisor for
the Caribbean shares donors' view that long-term observers
are critical, but says it is unlikely the Commonwealth can
invest the resources necessary for long-term observers. As
an alternative she will make frequent short trips to Guyana
to observe the registration process and prepare for the two
Commonwealth observer teams that will arrive one month and
one week prior to elections.


7. (C) The EU is due to send an election observer assessment
mission in January. The EC delegate and UK High Commissioner
are both pressing the EU to include long-term observers in
their plans, but even if the EU acts rapidly after its
assessment mission, it would be difficult to get an EU team
in place before the continuous registration exercise
concludes in mid-March.


8. (C) Minister of Public Service Jennifer Westford told
Charge on December 21 that she had just returned from
discussions with Jason Calder and President Carter in Atlanta
regarding the Carter Center sending observers. She said the
Carter Center "will send a team in two or three weeks to look
around". Post's USAID mission has also encouraged the Carter
Center to send long-term observers and has offered funding,
but has not yet received any feedback.

9 (C) The Canadian High Commissioner appears to have given up
on getting an OAS long-term observer in place. He reported
that Canada is now seeking to fund a long-term observer via
the UN. Canada hopes that the UN might be able to react
quickly enough to get an observer on the ground soon enough
to be here during the critical registration period.


10. (C) OAS A/SYG Ramdin separately told Ambassador and other
donor chiefs that he seeks to invigorate long-term
involvement of OAS in strengthening democracy and governance
in Guyana. The OAS mission in Guyana is moribund at best and
apparently unaware (and seemingly uninterested in) OAS plans
for involvement in the upcoming election.

Problems with Voter Registration
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11. (C) The donor community remains concerned that the
requirement--new for the 2006 election--that new registrants
show a birth certificate or passport as proof of
age/citizenship may disenfranchise many potential voters.
More importantly, even if the absolute numbers affected are
relatively small, this problem is tailor-made for forces that
seek to disparage the electoral process. Canadian High
Commissioner Picard met with Minister of Home Affairs Gail
Teixiera on December 9 to discuss the issue and briefed the
donor community the next day. According to Picard, Teixeira
acknowledges the urgent need to implement measures to correct
this problem. However, Teixeira warned that other senior
government officials may not share this sense of urgency and
are reluctant to take the necessary steps to address the
problem. The donors agreed to press the birth certificate
issue further. To that end, Picard sent a letter to Teixeira
on December 16 with copies to Head of the Presidential
Secretariat Roger Luncheon a

SIPDIS
nd the Chairman of GECOM Steve Surujbally. The letter
states: "Given the importance to ensure that all citizens who
are entitled to vote can exercise that right, the Donor
community would like to know what measures the Government of
Guyana plans to take in order to ensure that information
about late birth registration is widely available and that
applications are processed in an efficient and timely manner
so as to enable voters to register with GECOM as soon as
possible." The letter also requests a briefing by the
responsible GoG officials. The donors hope that the letter
will put the issue on the cabinet's agenda for action.


12. (C) On December 23, Teixeira informed Charge that she had
met with GECOM, the General Register Office (GRO),the
Ministry of Local Government, and the Ministry of Amerindian
Affairs (MAA) to address the registration issue. She said
that in 2004 the GoG had undertaken a birth registration
drive in the interior with MAA Community Development Officers
(CDOs) and GRO personnel collaborating to late register 4,000
people. The GoG plans to leverage this experience by sending
the CDOs out to find others who still need to register, help
them prepare their affidavits and documents, and then present
them to GRO.


13. (C) Although Teixeira felt that the bulk of unregistered
births are in the interior, she said the elderly who do not
have birth certificates face problems, too. They may have
voted in the past when registration rules were enforced less
strictly. However, if they have since moved or lost their ID
card, they will not be able to re-register. Teixeira
complained that people are confused over the voter
registration process and that she does not understand why
GECOM will not accept baptismal certificates as adequate
proof of citizenship, even joking that these are probably
more reliable than GRO-issued birth certificates. Teixeira
encouraged Charge to bring future concerns with voter
registration to her attention, as the GoG does not want to
disenfranchise anyone.

Despite Fingerprint Analysis, Voter List to be Contentious
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14. (C) GECOM is moving ahead with a plan to scan and
cross-match fingerprints to eliminate any multiple voter
registrations. A team from the Electoral Office of Jamaican
(EOJ) is scheduled to arrive in January to scan approximately
450,000 sets of fingerprints from the 2001 final voters list
(2001 OLE) and an anticipated 60,000 from newly registered
voters. EOJ will then cross-match all the prints to look for
duplicate registrations. The project is scheduled to take
three months. Donors are skeptical about the EOJ project for
several reasons, primarily GECOM's inability to provide the
results of 500 sample fingerprint scans EOJ took during an
exploratory visit in November; also GECOM's doubtful ability
to negotiate a sound contract with EOJ; and GECOM's
expatriate IT manager's reservations about the project.


15. (SBU) The PNC continues to insist on house-to-house
verification to delete from the voters list any persons who
have died or migrated. This is already a source of serious
dispute between the PNC and GECOM and could trigger future
conflict. Regardless of whether their complaints are valid,
opposition members are exasperated and angry that GECOM, in
almost five years, has taken no action to rid the 2001 OLE of
persons not qualified to vote. The detailed timeline for
GECOM's election preparations lists house-to-house
verification of the 2001 OLE as an activity yet to be
completed (verification of newly registered voters is
ongoing). However, the GECOM Chairman told donors he has no
intention to do this verification.

Broken Server
--------------

16. (C) GECOM has tried and failed to switch on the
long-dormant server that contains the official 2001 OLE. The
Joint International Technical Assessor (JITA) said that GECOM
is waiting for parts to repair the server. News of this
technical difficulty surfaced three weeks ago. Opposition
members have latched onto it as an example of GECOM's
ineptitude and as further justification for their
condemnation of GECOM's Chairman.

ID Cards behind Schedule
--------------

17. (U) Production of ID cards is two months behind schedule
as GECOM is waiting for necessary equipment to arrive. The
JITA told the donor community that the earliest ID card
production will begin is late February or March. This would
still leave three to four months to print and distribute the
cards and is not cause for concern at this time.
THOMAS