BOTSWANA ASSESSES POST-ELECTION ZIMBABWE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000561

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ZI BC IBB
SUBJECT: BOTSWANA ASSESSES POST-ELECTION ZIMBABWE


1. (U) Summary: During a meeting between AF/S Director
Dan Mozena and Botswana's MFA PermSec Mpofu on April 7,
the latter was frank in airing the frustration the GOB
feels regarding Zimbabwe. The deterioration of trade
and the dislocations border jumpers cause for Botswana
are two major problems. Albeit reluctantly, GOB
continues to allow VOA's transmission via medium-wave
of broadcasts into Zimbabwe. Impatience with Zimbabwe's
political and economic crises was the tone of the
discussion. End summary.


2. (U) AF/S Director Dan Mozena met with GOB's MFA
Permanent Secretary, Ernest Mpofu, on April 7, at the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation. Also attending: Lois Aroian, Deputy
Chief of Mission, U.S. Embassy, Gaborone, Julian
Mokgathle, MFA, Americas and Europe Desk. Pol/Econ
chief took notes.

--------------
The Zimbabwe Election
--------------

3. (U) The meeting opened with mutual pleasantries, and
talk of regional rain, which led into talk of regional
food security. Without prompting, PermSec Mpofu stated
that food was used as a political weapon in Zimbabwe.
The recently held Zimbabwe elections then came under
review. DCM noted that election observers from the
region should have gone to Zimbabwe earlier than they
did and alluded to U.S. Embassy Harare's deploying at
least 35 observers, who witnessed election
irregularities and concluded that there was in fact
massive rigging. PermSec Mpofu responded by saying
that the world now needed to hear from the Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC). "It is a pity the MDC didn't
get its act together," he said. He stated that SADC
(Southern African Development Community) had delayed
its own pronouncement on the election-it had waited a
day -- in order to give the MDC a chance to produce
evidence of election rigging, but such evidence had not
then been forthcoming. It was only now-a week later --
that the MDC alleged irregularities happening in at
least 36 constituencies, and that the voters tallied
were not consonant with the announced result. Director
Mozena agreed: the MDC should have done this
immediately, and should have done a parallel vote
count.

--------------
Troublesome Neighbor
--------------

4. (SBU)PermSec Mpofu continued: he did not blame the
MDC-it was not able to mobilize quickly. "In any
case," he continued, "an election is only part of the
picture. What I said to the Zimbabwe ambassador was,
`You are obviously very excited about the election; you
are happy-but what is your way forward?'" Mpofu said
that it was very difficult for Botswana, as neighboring
country, to continue as if nothing has changed. He
would like to discuss relations between the two
countries at some length with the Zimbabwean
ambassador, but there was no responsiveness. Mozena
asked what the Zimbabwean ambassador had said to that,
and Mpofu said there had been no response whatsoever.
He chuckled, and said, "Don't tell Washington, since if
word got back to Zimbabwe, we would once again be
accused of being on the side of the Americans- but we
have our problems with Zimbabwe." Mpofu said of
Zimbabwe, "It is a burden we have to bear." The
Botswana people are becoming very hostile to
Zimbabweans, and that is not a desirable situation."


5. (SBU) Mpofu elaborated. Foremost is the fact that
bilateral trade has gone down in the last few years.
Whereas up to five years ago, 33 percent of Botswana's
external trade was with Zimbabwe, that is now less than
an estimated 2 percent - mostly imports, according to
Mpofu. In the past, Selebi-Phikwe and Francistown, as
Botswana's manufacturing hubs, depended on Zimbabwe as
their primary market outlet. That has vanished.
Bulawayo used to be the industrial center of Zimbabwe.
Manufacturing enterprises often had dual factory
locations--one in Francistown, and one in Bulawayo,
where a division of labor in the manufacturing
processes, especially in textiles, was shared. Goods
made with 25 percent local input were considered
domestic. The more sophisticated products would go
back to Zimbabwe for finishing. This arrangement
benefited both Zimbabwe and Botswana. That has now
changed drastically. Factories have closed on both
sides of the border, increasing unemployment in
Botswana, and Bulawayo, according to Mpofu, is a `ghost
town'.


6. (SBU) Mpofu then described the adverse effect of the
Beitbridge railway line on Botswana Railways since

2000. Goods that transit Zimbabwe from RSA to Botswana
are now considered subject to duties. Mpofu said,
"Well, we don't think this is only Zimbabwe's doing; we
suspect RSA is colluding; they want to kill Botswana
Railways and take it over." He said that GOB had
several times discussed the tardiness of delivery of
goods and the inefficiencies of the Beitbridge railway
with Zimbabwe: "We thought they understood- but nothing
happened."

--------------
The Border Fence
--------------

7. (SBU) Mozena asked about the construction of the
border fence between Botswana and Zimbabwe. Mpofu
embarked on a lengthy explanation. In the past, he
said, animals that came over the border were destroyed.
That was no solution; people also bring in meat, and
this has the potential to carry animal disease.
Furthermore, elephants, which can be vectors of
livestock diseases, rarely were deterred by a fence,
nor were kudu, which can also be affected by foot and
mouth disease. "So Botswana decided to build a
stronger fence- electrified." Foot and mouth disease
is endemic in Zimbabwe and the country does not have
the resources to combat it. Botswana had offered to
send vaccine, but with no success, at least not until
the situation got desperate. "Zimbabweans are not
easy," said Mpofu.


8. (SBU) Mozena asked what effect the electrified
fence would have on the migration of people. Mpofu
said that the electrified fence will be perceived as
being erected primarily as a deterrent to people
migration, although that was not the case. He cited
the increased number of border crossing points, so that
persons intent on legally entering Botswana from
Zimbabwe would not have to walk far. But the majority
of Zimbabweans cross illegally, and are here. Mpofu
suggested that Mozena have a look around Kaunda Road,
one of Gaborone's major thoroughfares, where illegal
Zimbabweans sit along the sidewalks, hoping to be
selected for odd jobs and piecework. He said they were
everywhere: a friend of his, on the road to Shakawe in
the extreme northwest of the country, was accosted by
Zimbabweans begging for work: "In remote cattleposts,
you will find English-speaking Zimbabweans."


9. (SBU) Mozena asked what Batswana think of this
state of affairs. Mpofu said, "People are becoming
hostile." All crime is attributed to Zimbabweans.
Mpofu said, "I come from the northeast of the country,
where people are ethnically the same as across the
border-Kalanga, Ndebele. We used to travel back and
forth, and help each other during Zimbabwe's liberation
struggle. But even there now, people are very hostile.
They are the first victims of crimes committed by
desperate Zimbabweans who have no money, no food --
nothing."


10. (SBU) Mozena asked what could be done. Mpofu
responded by saying that Zimbabwe's situation is a
problem for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He
recited what he had asked the Zimbabwean ambassador:
what is the way forward? Mpofu stated that he had
advised the Zimbabwean ambassador to normalize
relations with the West, and with the rest of the
world. To rehabilitate the Zimbabwean economy, funding
from western sources, the World Bank, and even from
the African Development Bank would be needed, and that
implied Zimbabwe would have to take a different
international stance. When Mozena asked about his
reaction, Mpofu said, with little attempt at disguising
his bemusement, "The Zimbabwean ambassador is not very
sophisticated."

--------------
VOA Broadcasts
--------------

11. (SBU) Mozena thanked Mpofu for Botswana's allowing
the VOA transmitter in Selebi-Phikwe to broadcast
programs into Zimbabwe. "And the people of Zimbabwe
thank you, also," he said, "as it is often their only
source of news. Almost everyone listens to the
programs." Mpofu responded by saying there was a lot
of pressure on Botswana; Zimbabwe views Botswana as
being engaged in a conspiracy. Mpofu made a pitch once
again for shortwave, rather than medium-wave
broadcasts. He disagreed when Mozena pointed out medium-
wave broadcasts were more accessible to Zimbabweans.

--------------
Perennial Problem: Zimbabwe
--------------

12. (SBU) Mpofu turned philosophical, and reflective.
He stated that he would retire next year. He recalled
that when he started in the foreign ministry in 1975,
Zimbabwe was the issue; the only place the region could
meet to discuss it was Lusaka. Thirty years later, he
said, "I'm still dealing with Zimbabwe. What
contribution has Zimbabwe made to the region?
Nothing."


13. (SBU) Comment: Perhaps because he is soon going
into retirement, PermSec Mpofu was extremely forthright
in his comments on Botswana's neighboring country,
Zimbabwe. Mpofu, a Kalanga-speaker whose parents came
to Botswana from then-Southern Rhodesia, decades ago,
clearly has strong feelings about events in Zimbabwe,
and frankly expressed them to a sympathetic
interlocutor like Mozena. Nonetheless, Botswana's
government is unlikely to progress from frustration to
a plan of action on addressing its neighbor's crisis.
End comment.
HUGGINS