PORTRAIT OF THE VICE PRESIDENT AS AN AUTOCRAT:

C O N F I D E N T I A L GABORONE 000056

SIPDIS


DEPT FOR AF/S DIFFILY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/13/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM BC
SUBJECT: PORTRAIT OF THE VICE PRESIDENT AS AN AUTOCRAT:
CRITICS QUESTION KHAMA'S DEMOCRATIC CREDENTIALS

REF: A. (A) GABORONE 1873


B. (B) GABORONE 1950

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOSEPH HUGGINS FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary: As next in line to inherit the presidency,
Botswana,s Vice President Ian Khama remains an enigma. Many
participants in Botswana's public life such as academics,
journalists, and NGO leaders, express ambiguity and
skepticism regarding the Vice President's credentials as a
politician and worry about his views on issues such as human
rights and press freedom. Khama is perceived, and frequently
portrayed in local newspapers, as an autocrat:
intolerant of criticism and eager to bring opponents to heel.
The broad powers Botswana's constitution accords to the
presidency and a tradition of strong centralization
administered by a ruling elite that fully exploits these
powers suggest that Khama,s ascendancy will not shock the
political system. While Khama's assumption of the presidency
might not facilitate the further development of democratic
institutions and practices in Botswana, it is unlikely to
significantly reverse the progress democracy has made here.
Nonetheless, in the wake of the October 2004 election, the
Botswana atmospherics are full of
speculation as to what an Ian Khama presidency would bring.
End Summary.

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STRAINED RELATIONSHIP WITH THE MEDIA
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2. (U) A major theme in the public discussion is that the
Vice President has done little to cultivate a favorable image
with the press. Journalists generally depict Khama as their
antagonist. His alleged distrust of the media is reflected
in his infrequent interviews or comments to the press. While
the low professional standards that dominate Botswana's
media sector would make any public figure wary of speaking
out, his reticence arguably intensifies his
misrepresentation in the media. Journalists defend their
reporting of hearsay about Khama as fact due to the dearth of
reliable information and his inaccessibility to the press.
Consequently, apart from photo-ops, coverage of the Vice
President tends to be one-sided, with journalists frequently
attributing the worst motives to his actions and not
articulating his side of a story. In response, Khama has
accused the media of bias against the ruling Botswana
Democratic Party (BDP). The Office of the President has
pitched in, issuing statements designed to clarify incidents
involving the Vice President partially reported in the
private media, and pointedly questioning the intentions and
integrity of the concerned publications. But, in short, the
Vice President has a public relations problem, which is not
being effectively addressed.


3. (C) Multiple contacts described the Vice President as
opposed to an independent, critical media. They attribute
the change of stance by former Minister of Communications,
Science and Technology, Boyce Sebetela, toward the media as
due to the Vice President,s influence. When Sebetela took
office in 2002, they said he demonstrated a willingness to
listen to and accommodate journalists' concerns. Almost
overnight he reversed course, allegedly after being reined in
by the Office of the President, with Vice President Khama as
the driving force. Sebetela has attempted to disassociate
himself with some controversial decisions, asserting that he
simply implemented the will of the
cabinet. Nor did our interlocutors expect a change of
direction with the appointment of the new minister, Ms.
Pelonomi Venson. They expect that free press skeptics in the
cabinet, led by the Vice President, will align her against
the media as well.


4. (C) Past attempts by the Government to manipulate the
press have contributed to Khama's unfavorable media image.
In 2001, the Office of the President instructed all
government departments and parastatals to discontinue the
purchase of advertising space in the privately-owned Botswana
Guardian and Midweek Sun newspapers. Vice President Khama
reportedly inspired this decision, which was prompted by the
papers' criticisms of the Government. (The
High Court later overruled the prohibition.) That same year,
he was also reported to have intervened to prevent Botswana
Television from airing a documentary on a murderer executed
in Botswana. These incidents suggest a
willingness to employ heavy-handed measures to silence voices
of dissent in the media.

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A SOLDIER, NOT A HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVIST


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5. (C) Vice President Khama's views on human rights are
unclear. When asked their perception of his attitude toward
these issues, three interlocutors at University of Botswana's
Department of Government and Public Administration were left
bemused. The reaction of the leader of Botswana's main human
rights organization was that Khama just "is not a human
rights person." While he has
never dismissed the importance of human rights, and while he
is patron of a number of charitable organizations, the Vice
President thus far has not come out as a strong proponent.
It may be too much to expect him to speak out about human
rights abuses taking place in neighboring Zimbabwe, specially
in view of the GOB,s almost total silence with regard to
this issue. As a former Botswana Defense Force commander,
Khama is known to have strong sympathies with
his Zimbabwean army counterparts, which may inhibit him from
facing up to the wretched realities across the border.


6. (C) The Vice President has made several clumsy remarks
concerning women, which at least raise questions regarding
his commitment or sensitivity to gender equality -- and of
the capabilities of his public relations staff. On at least
three separate occasions during the 2004 electoral campaign,
Khama made speeches in which he dismissed or denigrated women
and their role in politics. Dr. Gloria Somolekae, a former
professor of politics, who now heads Botswana,s Vision 2016
Commission and who is well connected within the ruling elite,
characterized these as lapses of judgment in which Khama used
humor appropriate for private settings in public fora. She
did not believe, however, that these incidents necessarily
boded ill for the role of women in a Khama administration.
The head of Botswana Women's NGO Coalition was similarly
ambiguous, telling PolOff that Khama had not made it clear
what priority he assigns to women's rights.

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BROUGHT IN TO UNIFY THE BDP: LOW TOLERANCE FOR DISSENT
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Vice President Khama apparently has little patience
for dissent or criticism. One interlocutor reported to
PolOff a conversation with Minister of Communications,
Science and Technology Pelonomi Venson in which she remarked
that no one in the cabinet dared voice disagreement with the
Vice President except for President Mogae himself. Members
of the BDP -- primarily from the Kedikilwe faction -- have
echoed this sentiment, suggesting that party members already
fear crossing the Vice President and doubt whether they will
retain the ability to speak freely in a post-Mogae scenario.
This may well be due to the fact that the Vice President was
brought into BDP politics from the military in 1998 with the
specific dual mandate of lending the Khama luster to the
party and of being the enforcer: ensuring that ministries got
their deliverables out in time. Khama,s career experience
can be described as long on commanding;
short on the give-and-take of political accommodation.


8. (C) Dr. Somolekae, a sympathetic observer, confirmed
Khama's dual mandate. She opined that Khama has had
difficulty transitioning from a military to a political mode.
She saw him as focused on delivering desired outcomes more
than on building and maintaining consensus. While this
approach could increase productivity in Botswana's lethargic
bureaucracy, it could also short-circuit constructive
dialogue and undermine checks on government power.

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RIVALS SIDELINED -- FOR NOW
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9. (C) The 2004 general election process confirmed to many
observers Khama's intolerance of dissent in any form. The
BDP's primary election process was troubled, and in several
constituencies re-runs resulted in an altered outcome. Dr.
Somolekae's close ties to President Mogae and other BDP
leaders notwithstanding, she described the primaries as "Moi
elections," blatantly stolen, in her opinion, by members of
the Mogae/Khama faction. News reports alleging that ballots
were only cast a second time in constituencies where a
candidate from the Khama faction had lost, confirm that this
impression -- of sham primaries -- is commonly shared.


10. (U) After the October 30 2004 general election, members
of the rival faction led by MP Ponatshego Kedikilwe were
almost entirely excluded from cabinet and council
nominations, despite the group's considerable numbers in
parliament (Ref A). Despite gaining 48 percent of the
popular vote, opposition parties accounted for only 3 of 101


nominated seats in local councils, which are appointed by the
central government. The independent press interpreted the
appointment of three novice politicians with military
backgrounds to the cabinet as an indication that Khama places
a premium on obedience and loyalty over experience and
talent. It should be noted that the three new cabinet
officials come to their jobs with considerable private sector
experience. Reports that the Vice President is looking into
abolishing the long-standing caucus of BDP backbench MPs,
which have been among his most outspoken critics of late,
reinforced perceptions that Khama's top priority is a BDP
that speaks with one voice, and, thus, silences dissent.

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ARBITRARY PRIVILEGES: ABOVE THE LAW?
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11. (U) Critics accuse Vice President Khama of acting as
though he were above the law. The incident that rankles most
is the GOB aircraft saga. In April 2001, the Ombudsman
advised President Mogae that Vice President Khama should not
pilot Botswana Defense Force (BDF) aircraft because, as a
civilian, the BDF could not hold him accountable for loss or
damage. Instead, Mogae praised Khama's skills as an airman
and the Vice President continued to fly himself around the
country, including campaign events in BDF aircraft. As much
to the point was that Khama,s airborne mobility gave him an
instant advantage over opposition parties, campaigning. GOB
personnel continued to accompany him to political party
events despite complaints about that practice as well.


12. (U) In the press, the continuing controversy regarding
the location of the prospective second university is
unfolding as a commentary on the governing style of the Vice
President (Ref B). On December 10, MPs from the Mogae/Khama
faction of the BDP rallied to defeat a motion to investigate
the determination to locate the institution in
Serowe-Palapye, arguing that the legislature had no right to
revisit the executive's decision. (The commission appointed
to recommend the location of the second university had
selected the town of Selebi-Phikwe, but was overruled by
cabinet). Members of the rival BDP faction led by Ponatshego
Kedikilwe, along with the opposition sponsor of the motion,
walked out in protest. In subsequent press reports,
Kedikilwe and MP Daniel Kwelagobe articulated apprehension at
the implications for a balance of power
between the executive and legislature. One BDP member
asserted in frustration that the dominant Mogae/Khama faction
was "killing democracy."

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COMMENT
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13. (C) None of the speculations about Khama,s inflexibility
should be interpreted as a threat to Botswana,s democratic
institutions. Indeed, the current, very public, discussion
about the Vice President's nature, talents, and inclinations,
is testimony to the vibrancy of Botswana,s democracy -- and
of the country's talent for planning ahead. As son of the
first president of the country, Vice President Khama is
heaped to the point of overload with expectations, and is
bound in consequence to disappoint at least a part of
the public. The contitution provides for a powerful chief
executiveand the country's political culture has tolerated
decisive, not to say autocratic, tendencies in it
presidents. Botswana prides itself on the stablity of its
democratic institutions, but most of hem are dominated by a
small elite. If Khama is perceived as more autocratic than
his predecessors, the difference is one of degree, not of
substance. Consequently, it is most unlikely that Khama's
ascendance will derail democracy in Botswana. It may well
enhance it, as Botswana's political parties, parliament, and
other institutions will have to reassess their role and
define themselves against a more assertive personality.

HUGGINS


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