Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05GABORONE1040
2005-07-27 11:48:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Gaborone
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION PARTIES INCH TOWARD COOPERATION

Tags:  PGOV BC 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

271148Z Jul 05

ACTION AF-00 

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 INL-00 DODE-00 DS-00 
 UTED-00 VC-00 H-00 TEDE-00 INR-00 LAB-01 L-00 
 VCE-00 AC-00 NSAE-00 OMB-00 NIMA-00 PA-00 PM-00 
 GIWI-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 IRM-00 SSO-00 
 SS-00 TRSE-00 FMP-00 R-00 IIP-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 
 PRM-00 DRL-00 G-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /001W
 ------------------1C5F4E 271320Z /38 
FM AMEMBASSY GABORONE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2300
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
WHITE HOUSE NSC WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS GABORONE 001040 

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR MUNCY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BC
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES INCH TOWARD COOPERATION

Ref: Gaborone 1038

UNCLAS GABORONE 001040

SIPDIS

AF/S FOR MUNCY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BC
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PARTIES INCH TOWARD COOPERATION

Ref: Gaborone 1038


1. SUMMARY: Botswana's two largest opposition parties, the
Botswana National Front (BNF) and the Botswana Congress Party
(BCP),intend to cooperate to oust the ruling Botswana
Democratic Party (BDP) in the next election. Although they
pledged to pursue this strategy at their national congresses
July 16-19, the acrimonious split which produced the BCP as an
offshoot of the BNF in 1998 has left a significant trust-
deficit between the two parties. While these personal
differences will slow the process of agreeing to a specific
plan, the BDP's falling share of the popular vote has created
a definite sentiment in favor of cooperation among supporters
of the opposition. This approach, coupled with factionalism
within the BDP (reftel),could lead the opposition to its best
showing yet in the 2009 election. END SUMMARY.

BNF HANGS HOPES ON OPPOSITION COOPERATION


2. Addressing the BNF biennial national congress, party
President "Comrade" Otsweletse Moupo said that BNF's success
in the next election hinged on effective opposition
cooperation. Moupo called on the assembled delegates to
deliberate carefully on which manner of collaboration - a
pact, a new umbrella body - would best serve the party's
interests. He argued that a well-crafted plan of cooperation
could capitalize on the infighting in the BDP by presenting
the opposition, in contrast to the BDP, as organized,
disciplined and fit to govern.


3. The BNF's zeal for cooperation notwithstanding, its own
fractious history and poor relationship with the BCP will
complicate these efforts. As Moupo acknowledged, the BNF has
suffered from internal disruptions based, he said, on self-
aggrandizement. Moupo and other BNF leaders, such as Gaborone
Mayor Nelson Ramaotwana, indicated to PolOff that the party
leadership had taken steps to eliminate these divisions and
was confident of overcoming them. Moupo and his comrades will
find it more challenging to settle differences with the BCP,
particularly with its newly elected President Gilson
Saleshando. Although Saleshando had once warned Moupo that it
would take "twenty years" before the BCP and BNF could
cooperate, Moupo told PolOff that he was still hopeful that
the two parties would reach a viable understanding.

REVOLUTIONARY RHETORIC, EVOLUTIONARY POLICIES


4. Although Moupo's remarks at the BNF congress were
characterized by Marxist rhetoric, the BNF is unlikely to

match its words with actions were it to take power. He
praised the Venezuelan and Cuban revolutions and denounced the
conditions attached to the G-8 debt forgiveness plan as a
mechanism by which capitalist powers plunder the resources of
developing countries. For all this ideological bluster,
however, Moupo advocated less than revolutionary policies. A
BNF government, he said, would do more to diversify Botswana's
economy, increase investment in public housing, and replace
the House of Chiefs with a body to represent various entities
in civil society including ethnic groups, trade unions,
women's organizations, and youth movements. Since the
departure of former party President Kenneth Koma, a staunch
Marxist, the BNF has slowly been moving toward more pragmatic
policies.

BNF SLAMS ZANU(PF)


5. Interestingly, Moupo also criticized Zimbabwe's ZANU-PF as
an example of an erstwhile progressive regime that had
abandoned its agenda for "brutal repression and dictatorship".
Citing the recent demolition of shops and homes of the urban
poor in Zimbabwe, Moupo declared that the BNF could not remain
silent just because these "hideous atrocities" were committed
by a supposedly revolutionary movement. Following his speech,
PolOff pursued this theme with Moupo. Having heard that some
younger Members of Parliament from both the ruling and
opposition parties planned to raise this issue, PolOff
impressed upon Moupo that now is the time to speak out.

BCP ENDORSES OPPOSITION COOPERATION


6. At its own biennial congress earlier this month, the BCP
resolved to unite with other opposition parties in the runup
to the 2009 general election. The loss of ten parliamentary
seats to the BDP due to vote splitting between the BNF and BCP
galvanized consensus on the need for coordinated campaigns.
It mandated the BCP Central Committee to negotiate with other
opposition parties a viable form of cooperation by the end of

2006. Members of the BCP rejected, however, the notion of
dissolving the existing parties into a new, larger body.

BCP ELECTS FIESTY NEW PRESIDENT


7. In a signal to the BNF that it cannot expect to dictate
terms to the smaller BCP, the latter revamped its Central
Committee by electing a new President, Gilson Saleshando, and
Secretary General, Taolo Lucas. Both had lobbied against

SIPDIS
cooperation with the BNF but conceded defeat after a majority
at the congress voted in favor of that strategy. In contrast
to his unassuming predecessor, Saleshando is an outspoken and
charismatic politician. Although he had spurned the BNF's
calls for unity, likening them to "Satan inviting Christians
to revise the Bible," BCP Chairman Batisani Maswabilili told
Political Assistant that he was confident that Saleshando
would adhere to the evident will of the party.

PRIVATE SECTOR ENDORSEMENT FOR OPPOSITION


8. Interestingly, the former Permanent Secretary for Foreign
Affairs turned businessman Samuel Mpuchane delivered the
opening address at the BCP congress. He urged the BCP to work
with other opposition parties to defeat the BDP. Since no
ideological differences divided the opposition parties, he
argued, only the will to cooperate is needed to successfully
challenge the BDP. His presence also suggested that the
opposition parties enjoy some support in the private sector,
their leftist slogans notwithstanding.

COMMENT


9. Botswana's opposition parties have been struggling to
unite their energies against the ruling BDP for years. The
primary obstacle has been the ambition of individual activists
for positions of influence either in a party or as a candidate
for public office. That obstacle will endure in the runup to
the 2009 elections. The BDP's shrinking popular support,
however, appears to have brought closer the possibility of
change and with it a new commitment to cooperation as a means
to realize that change. Recent agreements between the BNF and
BCP not to compete in parliamentary and council by-elections
where one party had a clear advantage over the other testify
to this commitment.


10. Despite the revolutionary rhetoric of the BNF, the
opposition parties likely would not institute sweeping
economic reforms that would reverse Botswana's record of
growth and development. Most opposition supporters are simply
frustrated with unequal distribution of the benefits of
growth, for which they blame the BDP. The BNF's radical
vocabulary is meant to excite and mobilize that
dissatisfaction. Although most opposition politicians oppose
privatization of public utilities, they have not called for
restrictions on trade or nationalization of private
industries. Opposition parties certainly bring a more
populist perspective to governance but are unlikely to
fundamentally alter Botswana's largely liberal economy.
AROIAN


NNNN