Lafontaine - a Man to Watch in Home State of

UNCLAS FRANKFURT 006748

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: Lafontaine - a Man to Watch in Home State of
Saarland


Sensitive but unclassified; not for Internet distribution

REF: A) Berlin 3011, B) Berlin 2988 and Previous, C) Leipzig
30


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Polls suggest that Germany's new Left
Party (Linkspartei) could post a breakthrough performance in
Saarland -- the home of party Co-Chairman (and former
Minister-President) Oskar Lafontaine -- further compounding
the SPD's decline in a former stronghold. By splitting the
Social-Democratic/SPD vote, Left Party candidates including
Lafontaine (who is running in hometown Saarbruecken) could
throw one or more seats to Christian Democrats (CDU).
Having lost the 2004 state elections, a poor showing on
September 18 could put SPD state chairman Heiko Maas'
position in jeopardy. State Finance Minister Peter Jacoby
(CDU) appears the favorite to succeed Saarland Minister-
President Peter Mueller (CDU) should Mueller take a cabinet
position in Berlin. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Founded in July, the Linkspartei/Left Party (reftels)
combines elements of the Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS
-- successor to the east German communist party) and the
much smaller WASG (Election Alternative for Work and Social
Justice) based in western Germany. With the alliance, the
party has gained a foothold in western Germany and appeals
to disenchanted and protest voters (including some who
traditionally favor conservatives).


3. (SBU) Polls and party insiders in Saarland predict the
Linkspartei will receive over 10% of the state vote (earlier
polls put the party as high as 20 percent),posing a threat
to SPD candidates who won all four Saar Bundestag electoral
districts in 2002. SPD party manager Stephan Schweizer told
us the SPD was unlikely to match its 2002 showing in the
state. Saarbruecken, usually a safe SPD seat, is in play
this year since Oskar Lafontaine is running against SPD
incumbent Elke Ferner. Although Consulate contacts believe
that Lafontaine is unlikely to win the seat outright, he is
likely to split the left vote and throw the seat to the CDU.
Schweizer notes that SPD candidates avoid attacking
Lafontaine directly because of his continuing hometown
popularity and because many SPD members sympathize
ideologically with their former party chairman.

SPD Chairman Rejects Coalition, Future Uncertain
-------------- ---


4. (SBU) SPD State Chairman Heiko Maas, who has ruled out a
coalition with the Linkspartei in media statements, could
lose his job if the SPD showing in Saarland (a former
stronghold) falls significantly below the national average.
On the other hand, Maas remains personally popular and
Saarland insiders tell us he remains a strong potential
challenger to any successor of CDU Minister-President Peter
Mueller, should Mueller take a position in a Merkel cabinet.
(NOTE: Sources in Saarland speculate that state Finance
Minister Peter Jacoby is the strong favorite to succeed
Mueller at this point. END NOTE).

Grassroots Success
--------------


5. (SBU) SPD representatives are concerned that the
Linkspartei is gaining grassroots support within labor and
civil society. Schweizer pointed out that at companies like
Ford (which has a large facility in Saarlouis) the
Linkspartei recently gained works council majorities. The
Linkspartei has also done well in recruiting disenchanted
SPD members in Saarland. Schweizer and others have
conjectured that the Linkspartei might also poll well in
areas (such as Voelklingen) where the far-right National
Democratic Party (NPD) has had success. (NOTE: The NPD
received 4% of the vote in 2004 Saarland state elections.
END NOTE). The SPD still enjoys the largest membership of
any party in Saarland and (according to Schweizer) has
reportedly stopped the erosion of its membership base there.

COMMENT
--------------


6. (SBU) In sum, the enduring popularity of Oskar Lafontaine
in Saarland may well give the Left Party its best showing in
western Germany, hurting SPD candidates. Although the newly
formed party may not win a direct seat, a strong showing in
western Germany as a whole would boost the party in its neck-
and-neck race with the Greens and the FDP -- and potentially
give Lafontaine added clout within a new Bundestag caucus.
END COMMENT.

BODDE