BACK IN THE USSR? TAJIKISTAN'S SECURITY WONKS UNDECIDED

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 002097

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TI PHUM ENRG
SUBJECT: BACK IN THE USSR? TAJIKISTAN'S SECURITY WONKS UNDECIDED

CLASSIFIED BY: Thomas Armbruster, Charge d Affaires, US Embassy
Dushanbe, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (SBU) Tajikistan understands the economic and security
benefits of globalization, but Russia remains Central Asia's
most important global partner. These two themes dominated the
papers at a conference on "Globalization: National Interests
and National Security for Central Asian Countries" sponsored by
the Russian-Tajiki (Slavonic) University in Dushanbe December

22.


2. (SBU) Many speakers' key points mirrored U.S. policy in
Tajikistan: narcotics trafficking remains the scourge of Central
Asia and threatens regional stability; hydropower has enormous
potential to link Tajikistan and its neighbors; China,
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India could all be potential trading
partners; the war on terror has demonstrated that every
country-even the United States-must be vigilant in its national
security efforts.


3. (SBU) In the opening remarks, Deputy Foreign Minister
Nasredinov called social-economic security a top priority and
noted drug trafficking and poverty impeded economic development.
Hydro energy projects with Russia, Iran, Pakistan and China
were vital to Tajikistan's growth. Only a few papers resorted
to Soviet-style propaganda, blaming the United States for
globalization, or cautioning against Western involvement in the
region.


4. (C) Although the Russian Ambassador was slated to speak
second, DCM Svetlichniy represented him, as has become the norm
at public events in Dushanbe. Svetlichniy noted that Russia had
underestimated the importance of Central Asia in the 1990s but
was now trying to strengthen its ties to the region. He
acknowledged the United States, China and the EU had strategic
interests in Central Asia. He suggested Russia and CIS states
should follow the American NGO model but create their own NGOs
to "better address" the specific problems of the former Soviet
Union.


5. (SBU) PolOff's remarks highlighted how Tajikistan already
benefits from globalization in everyday life, from cell phones
and product choices to fast money wire transfers from Tajik
workers in Russia. She underscored that Tajiks should not fear
the openness that comes from global trade and communication and
cautioned that the only way Tajikistan would attract foreign
investment-a theme highlighted by the Foreign Minister and
others-is to ensure a transparent investment climate.


6. (SBU) Other speakers represented various Tajik ministries
and academic institutions, as well as the Russian and U.S.
Embassies. At least eight Russian diplomats dutifully attended,
as did the Uzbek Ambassador, and representatives of the Afghan
and Iranian Embassies. When the German Ambassador left after
the third paper and the Turkish Ambassador failed to show,
PolOff was the sole Westerner, left to defend everything from
the Nizhniy Pyanj bridge to the "threat" of the English language
and the Internet to Tajikistan's security. PolOff's speech
garnered the most responses and questions, some predictably
accusatory ("Globalization means Americanization!") but many
sincere.


7. (SBU) While a number of papers highlighted the United
States' role in Central Asia, noting the U.S.-financed bridge
construction on the Tajik-Afghan border at Nizhniy Pyanj would
open up trade possibilities, the "special relationship" with
Russia appeared in almost every paper and question.
Tajikistan's need to balance its historic ties to Russia with
new global and regional challenges remained a key and unresolved
issue, and many speakers cautioned Tajik decisions makers from
too hastily departing from these historical ties.


8. (C) COMMENT: The Russian DCM's pitch for Russian NGOs was a
sly and sophisticated proposal, potentially to sideline American
and Western activities in the region. During the coffee break,
Svetlichniy told PolOff he was pleasantly surprised by the
quality and thoughtfulness of the papers.


9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: This conference was an unusually
frank and open discussion of Tajikistan's needs and future. The
presence of at such a large Russian delegation sent a message
that the Russians pay attention to Tajikistan on high and low
levels. At the same time, most of the discussion was not
neo-Soviet, but a serious conversation about how Tajikistan
should balance its interests to benefit from the global economic
forces. Russia's undeniable influence was felt, but there was
little urging to return to the past dependency.
ARMBRUSTER


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