"WITHOUT THE US, ROGUN WILL NOT BE BUILT": TAJIK ENERGY

1. (C) The United States and AES still have significant roles
to play in Tajikistan's hydropower sector. Tajik Minister of
Energy Jurabek Nurmamatov told PolOff rumors of RusAl dominating
the Rogun project did not reflect the Ministry's position or the
Tajik government's. RusAl had taken only a preliminary step by
committing to a third of the project. He dismissed as
unimportant a recent news report regarding a strictly
Russian-Tajik commission to determine Rogun's cost and
inventory, noting the State Committee for Management of
State-owned property, and not the MoE, was behind the new body.
"As far as we are concerned, without the United States, Rogun
will never be built." MoE has more political clout that the
State Committee.



2. (C) Rogun will be an international project, he emphasized,
involving the World Bank, AES, the European Bank for
Reconstruction and Development and other international partners,
to export electricity to Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nurmamatov
regarded the January 12 meeting in Islamabad to draft a
Memorandum of Understanding (reftel A) as the point to clarify
RusAl and AES's roles in the project. Furthermore, he saw a
role for AES in Sangtuda, likely in the construction the
high-voltage transmission lines.



3. (C) COMMENT: Nurmamatov's comments downplay recent rumors
about Oleg Deripaska and RusAl's involvement in Rogun, and
reinforce President Rahmonov's recent message to the Ambassador
(reftel B) that the United States will be a key player. Whether
the Tajiks are telling the Russians something different about
Rogun remains an open question.



4. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Speaking cheerfully and frankly,
Nurmamatov was all business and no small talk. He answered
PolOff's questions directly and completely, but did not engage
in wider discussions of energy or the economy. Embassy staff
who have met with him previously say he is accessible and open,
but always to the point. END COMMENT.

ARMBRUSTER


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