TAJIKISTAN POLITICAL PARTIES UNDERGO CHANGES TO PREPARE FOR

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 002092

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPAO TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN POLITICAL PARTIES UNDERGO CHANGES TO PREPARE FOR
2006 ELECTIONS


IRPT HOLDS ROUNDTABLE TO DISCUSS REFORMS


1. (U) In a show of possibly implementing major party reforms,
on December 20 the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan (IRPT)
held a roundtable to solicit opinions from political scientists,
government officials and other political parties on the role of
the IRPT in society. The Democratic Party of Tajikistan's (DPT)
Deputy Chairman voiced common criticisms of the IRPT and accused
the IRPT of being useless in government. He blamed the party
for not engaging parliament in a multi-party system, but rather
succumbing to the voting wishes of the ruling People's
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT). Many speakers asked the
IRPT to define more clearly their position.


2. (SBU) COMMENT: The roundtable's intent appeared
progressive-minded, however during a break, IRPT Deputy Chairman
Vohidkhon Qosiddinov casually remarked to PolOff that the IRPT
did not intend to implement any reform suggestions. As it turns
out, the roundtable was a token gesture of reaching out with no
real intent to reform. END COMMENT.


3. (U) The close relationship between the IRPT and PDPT fuel
critics' arguments that the PDPT uses the IRPT to create the
pretense of multi-party support. President Rahmonov visited
IRPT Chairman, Said Nuri, several times and provided financial
support while Nuri was being treated for an undisclosed illness
in Germany. After being ill for several months, Nuri is back in
Tajikistan and has regained daily control over the IRPT from the
moderate First Deputy Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri. Nuri, upon
reevaluation of party officials' loyalty, dismissed several
people and demoted others with more changes to come.

SDPT SCRAMBLES TO BOLSTER WEAKENING PARTY


4. (U) The SDPT, weak from government attacks and persecution,
is trying to recoup their support in order to put forth an
opposition candidate for next fall's presidential election. The
December 17 SDPT congress elected Dilovarsho Jurayev and Dilbar
Samadova deputy heads of the party. The SDPT persuaded Jurayev,
a popular Rasht Valley politician, to join their party after he
failed to register his own party, the Party of the National
Heritage.


5. (U) The congress participants supported a decision to field
a single candidate from opposition political parties in
Tajikistan's November 2006 presidential elections; however, the
IRPT has publicly stated they will not cooperate with the
opposition political parties. The SDPT remains hopeful the IRPT
will change its decision. To date, no parties have named a
candidate because they fear government pressure.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: In an attempt to monopolize the political
space, the government exerts control over political parties in
two ways: luring them into cooperation, like with the IRPT and
Communist Party of Tajikistan or defaming them, like the SDPT
and DPT. The government's effective divide and conquer strategy
has weakened the parties. Even if the parties were willing to
cooperate, they will be unable to garner enough popular support
for any candidate. END COMMENT.

ARMBRUSTER


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