TAJIKISTAN'S NORTHERN REGION WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001950

SIPDIS


CONFIDENTIAL

SIPDIS
EUR FOR CACEN, SA
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/6/2015
TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM KISL KPAO TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S NORTHERN REGION WANTS TO BE INDEPENDENT OF
DUSHANBE'S CLUTCHES

REF: DUSHANBE 1701

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, Dushanbe,
Tajikistan, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Historically, the Sughd region in northern
Tajikistan served as the intellectual and economic hub of
Tajikistan. Its proximity to Uzbekistan still grants it trade,
business and access to media and information outside of
Tajikistan. Although Dushanbe attempts to keep a tight reign on
the north, civil society remains defiant. In the last few
months, authorities arrested several opposition party activists,
including Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan member Fayziniso
Vohidova, who remains imprisoned. Contacts expressed
frustration with Dushanbe's suppression and have started
organizing for change. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PolOff traveled to Khojand and Istaravshan November
28-29 to meet with leaders from local NGOs, political parties,
and business. In the past, government leaders of Tajikistan all
came from Khojand. A good railroad and road system turned the
North into a business and intellectual center. In the last
century, the shift of power to Dushanbe after independence
exacerbated the rift between northerners and southerners.
Notably in Istaravshan in 1998, locals revolted against the
militia when the government appointed Kulobis to local
government from President Rahmonov's home region in the south.
Troops from Dushanbe quelled the protests. Since then, the
government has treated Istaravshan with kid gloves. Istaravshan
has a long revolutionary history, ever since they kicked out
Alexander the Great's troops. Even the Soviet government
watched Istaravshan carefully and viewed it as the "Chechnya of
Tajikistan." The region's historical importance remains
relevant today. The Sughd region is an area to keep an eye on
for political opposition and new economic growth.

THE NORTH IS EAGER FOR CHANGE


3. (C) Located approximately 400 kilometers north over a
series of mountain ranges, impassable by car in winter until the
Anzob Tunnel is completed in 2006, the Sughd region's distance
and relative isolation from Dushanbe afford political leaders,
NGOs, and businesses greater freedom to voice criticism of the
government, albeit with discretion. However, Dushanbe still
subjects opposition political activists and the general
population to the same authoritarian pressure as the rest of the
country.


4. (C) In separate meetings, local leaders criticized
President Rahmonov for his stronghold on power and restrictive
policies, and indicated they were ready for change. Sattor
Asrorov, a retired colonel and brother-in-law of Sayfiddin
Turayev, a popular local politician affiliated with the inactive
Congress of Popular Unity Movement and critical of the
government, made clear Istaravshan is tired of President
Rahmonov's regime. Asrorov, himself, applied several times for
permission to hold public demonstrations, but was rejected. He
noted he would not be surprised if the people were to
demonstrate or rise up against Rahmonov. Bobojon Ikromov,
editor of "Varorud," an independent weekly newspaper, also saw
change in the country's future. He reported that Sughd clan and
business leaders held a series of meetings to discuss whom from
the North should run against Rahmonov in the later 2006
presidential election. Regional leaders view Russia's warming
relationship with Uzbekistan as a sign Russia may not support
Rahmonov in next year's election, given the strained


relationship between Rahmonov and Karimov. Ikromov mentioned
Rashid Olimov, Ambassador to China, as one possible candidate
Russia may support in next year's presidential election. In the
last presidential election, the north supported Abdumalik
Abdullojonov, and they maintain he won the majority of the vote.


5. (C) COMMENT: Political leaders in the North are optimistic
Rahmonov may not be re-elected next year. However, if the north
puts forth a candidate, Tajikistan will split along a
geographical divide and southerners by default will vote for a
southern candidate. END COMMENT.

KHOJAND AUTHORITIES GO OUT OF THEIR WAY TO PLEASE DUSHANBE


6. (C) Knowing the strain in the north-south relationship,
Dushanbe appointed many southerners to local government
positions in the North to maintain power. The local government
is eager to please Dushanbe authorities and employs extreme
tactics to deliver results. Islomhom Bokkosov, Director of the
Institute for Human Rights, a Khojand NGO, emphasized one
example: police brutality is growing. The government provides a
financial reward for every crime solved. Therefore, the
prosecutor's office orders law enforcement personnel to torture
suspects to extract confessions and "solve" cases. They
reportedly have also rounded up the mentally ill and physically
disabled and claimed them as suspects.

TARGETING THE OPPOSITION


7. (C) In the months approaching next year's presidential
election, the government is taking no chances and is increasing
pressure on opposition political parties and NGOs. Local
authorities, on instruction from Dushanbe, singled out political
activists and organizations opposing government policies to
harass and formally prosecute. The government targeted The
Rights of Citizens, NGO lawyers, and Social Democratic Party of
Tajikistan (SDPT) members because they have been successful in
high-profile cases against the prosecutor's office- the majority
pro-bono, defending the rights of women, the poor, and
beleaguered entrepreneurs. The government inspected The Rights
of Citizens three times in the last four months. Dilbar
Samadova, regional Chair of the SDPT, was threatened with
imprisonment and resigned from her position at the local
university. Her husband, also threatened because of her
political affiliations, left her and their three children.


8. (C) Another example is the high profile case of Fayziniso
Vohidova, imprisoned October 12 for falsification of her law
diploma (REFTEL). Vohidova is the latest in a series of
imprisoned political activists. According to her lawyer,
Bakhtiyor Nasrulloyev, she remains in jail with no designated
release date. The prosecutor's office continues the
investigation of the case by inspecting her finances. A video
camera monitors her cell; however, prison guards respect
Vohidova for her service to the community and have been lenient,
allowing visitors and privileges not afforded to other
prisoners. The government will likely continue to intimidate
opponents until it is satisfied there is no one left to
challenge it.

BUSINESS IS BOOMING, BUT FACES COMPETITION FROM CHINA


9. (C) Businesses in the Sughd region must tackle the same
problems as others throughout Tajikistan, mainly corruption, a
high tax rate, and competition from cheaper Chinese goods. Both
of the businesses visited in Istaravshan cited Chinese
competition as a serious impediment to growth. Tajikistan is
trying to move towards a market economy, but economic barriers


and corruption prevent businesses from competing with foreign
companies.


10. (C) Despite these obstacles, many developers are building
and renovating commercial and residential properties, central
markets operate until late hours, and there are plenty of
Mercedes driving around town. The region's largest indoor
market, Hojijayit, opened in September in Istaravshan. In order
to stave off Chinese competition, Chinese vendors will operate
in a separate building outside of this indoor market. In
addition, taxes for Chinese businesses are higher than for Tajik
businesses. Hamid Muminov, the owner, spent $8 million to
construct the market complex and roads leading up to it.
According to Bakhtiyor Nasrulloyev, Muminov's lawyer, he rented
all 400 stalls to wholesale vendors for $100 per month. The day
PolOff visited, the building was vacant. The market is new,
located on the outskirts of Istaravshan, competing with fifteen
other markets in Istaravshan, and construction is not fully
complete. Once the area is more developed, the market is
expected to be a bustling center of business. Muminov intends
to invest in more construction projects in Istaravshan. He is
the richest man in the Sughd region. Originally from
Istaravshan, he founded Hamid Oil, a Kazakh-based company, and
has ties to LukOil.


11. (C) In contrast to Hamid's modern indoor market, the chief
engineer of a knitting factory owned by Sayfiddin Turayev,
Inomgon Mamurova, complained his business faced decline due to
high taxes, corruption and competition from Chinese goods.
Without large sums of financial and capital investment, it is
challenging for a small outfit such as a local knitting factory
to operate, not to mention grow. With increased investment,
businesses could take advantage of the region's external links.
However, most of the financial investment is directed to the
south of Tajikistan.

RELIGION CANNOT BE SUPPRESSED IN SUGHD REGION


12. (C) The influence of Islam is more visible in Khojand and
Istaravshan than in Dushanbe. Newly constructed and renovated
buildings take on distinctly Islamic architectural
characteristics. There are a greater number of mosques and
madrassas than in Dushanbe. The well-maintained mosques show
the financial wealth of the region as well as people's devotion
to Islam. Because of this greater support, religious leaders
can affect change and defend their rights.


13. (C) The Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) is one
such effective organization. Since the Minister of Education
issued a decree banning the Muslim head covering, hijab, in
public education institutions, many girls have been expelled.
Teachers who wear hijab were also forced to resign. Hafiza
Sodiqova, Head of the women's wing of the IRPT in Khojand,
claimed that fifteen incidents were reported to the IRPT, but
many more were unreported. In each case, the IRPT approached
the principal of the school, explained that hijabs are actually
legal and was able to reinstate the student in all but one.
Sodiqova complained the fatwah imposed in August prohibiting
women to pray in mosques and forcing women to remove hijabs when
taking passport photos is a violation of their rights. She
commented that restrictions on religious freedom, whether it is
from the government or Islam itself, would turn young people to
extremist religious organizations.


14. (C) The government sees popular religious leaders as a
threat. Sajid Azamhonzoda, a moderate Imam of the largest
mosque in Istaravshan participated in February in the U.S.
International Visitors Program, "Religion, Politics and


Tolerance in America." In June, he spoke to students about
religious freedom at the American Corner in Khojand. Wary of
his intentions, after the talk, the Ministry of Security
interrogated all the students. Since then, he has not
interacted with the students because he fears harassment from
the Ministry of Security. However, his mosque remains open and
well attended.


15. (C) COMMENT: The Sughd region is more politically active
and defiant than Dushanbe. The government's strict treatment of
the North furthers the historical north-south rift. Instead of
controlling the region, it is ostracizing and agitating the
people. The government, locked in an old-guard control
mind-set, does not seem to understand repression is a dangerous
game. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND


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