TAJIKISTAN: NEW ECON REFORM PARTY CHAIRMAN SAYS TAJIKISTAN

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001855

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, SA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: NEW ECON REFORM PARTY CHAIRMAN SAYS TAJIKISTAN
NEEDS SLOW ECONOMIC REFORM



1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: Tajikistan's new Party of Economic Reform
(PER) calls for gradual economic changes beginning with
agriculture reform, developing industry around farm products,
and creating a financial sector for agro-investment. The party
favors a strong government hand in initiating the reform
process, and criticizes the government for not moving forward
with proposed reforms. PER accuses other parties of being too
economically liberal, but is sympathetic to the ruling People's
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT). PER Chairman Olimzhon
Boboyev praised an "Eastern model" of government and ideally
wished Tajikistan had a monarchy with Rahmonov as the figurehead
king and an elected President and Prime Minister. END SUMMARY.

PER's PLATFORM: TAJIKISTAN NEEDS SLOW BUT REAL ECONOMIC REFORM


3. (U) In the local press, PER Chairman Boboyev stated the
party's goals: to reduce poverty, conduct proper privatization,
and attract foreign investments. In a meeting with PolOff on
November 18, he proposed Tajikistan needs slow and gradual
economic reform, but is not yet ready for a free-market economy.



4. (U) PER's platform is based on a three-step gradual
transition to a market economy. The first step is agrarian
reform. Boboyev argued the party does not favor privatizing
land ownership because privatization could lead to a feudal
system with a few elite able to afford land controlling peasants
who must work the land. He called on private- and state-owned
joint ventures to organize small farm cooperatives to create a
market for the exchange of land use.


5. (U) The second step, directly related to the development of
the agriculture sector, is industrial reform. New industries
would use Tajikistan's agricultural output. Boboyev identified
the need to fund small enterprises to process raw materials such
as cotton into yarn and then, over time, a textiles industry
could develop.


6. (U) The third step would be to create a financial sector
revolving around agro-investment. In Bobyev's opinion, with
industrial support, Tajikistan could build large plants to be
competitive with foreign enterprises, although Tajikistan still
lacks reliable electrical power. Boboyev touted the need for
foreign investment and said Tajikistan can receive large amounts
of aid from the West, but it will not help; Tajikistan needs
investment to develop its economy.


7. (U) The government should prepare each sector for
liberalization. When the government deems a sector is finally
ready for liberalization, it should privatize. The market will
then guide that sector and government influence would naturally
decrease.


8. (U) Unlike leaders of other political parties, Boboyev has a
close working relationship with Parliamentarians and other
government ministries. The Minister of Transport appointed him
head of the Transport Institute in 2003, and he often advises
Parliament on transport legislation. Thus far, he has received
free access to and coverage by both independent and state media.



9. (U) Boboyev has been publicly critical of the government
only in the realm of economic reform. Politically, he agreed
with the current policies and specifically pointed out that
Rahmonov has chosen the best political approach towards
stability and built a positive image of the country. However,


he criticized the government for being ineffective, the
bureaucracy too large, and the ministries not independent, but
rather extensions of the President.

FORMING A NEW POLITICAL PARTY: A 12-MONTH PROCESS


10. (U) The Ministry of Justice officially registered PER on
October 28. Boboyev claimed the Party initiated the
registration process one year ago. It currently has 1,112
members total, from every district, including Gorno Badakhshan.
Ninety percent of their members have advanced degrees and are
considered members of the intelligentsia, being economists,
lawyers, journalists, writers, and other educated professionals.



11. (U) PER's Congress convened representatives from all
districts September 19. According to Tajik law, the Congress
established the party's charter and elected staff members. The
next Congress will meet in three months. Boboyev hoped to have
a PER representative in every village. The party's membership
fees are modest and not enough to meet the party's financial
needs, but PER intends to raise funds by creating local
enterprises. Thus far, none have been established, but will be
set-up during the next few Congresses. Boboyev dodged PolOff's
questions about how the party was initially funded.


12. (SBU) COMMENT: It is difficult to register any kind of
organization in Tajikistan, especially political parties -
unless the powers-that-be want them registered. PER's
registration on its first try suggests the party is 100 percent
government approved, and likely government created. END COMMENT.


13. (U) PER shares few common principles with the seven other
registered political parties. Primarily, Boboyev believes other
parties are economically too liberal in calling for less
government interference in the economy. The party insists
Tajikistan needs the government to stabilize and stimulate the
economy. He accused other parties of abandoning Tajikistan's
Eastern values and being too pro-Western. The one exception,
noted Boboyev, was the People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan,
which shared a similar platform with PER.


14. (U) As next year's presidential election draws closer, PER
will announce its own presidential candidate. Boboyev did not
rule out supporting another party's candidate, because, he
acknowledged, PER is a young party and could not win in the next
presidential election. He hoped to establish a solid base for
the future, and believes the population will respect the party
because of its intelligentsia membership.

KING RAHMONOV


15. (SBU) Boboyev ideally would like Tajikistan's government to
mirror Japan's. He favored a monarchy for Tajikistan with
Rahmonov as king. (COMMENT: No, we are not making this up.
END COMMENT.) Boboyev explained Rahmonov is concerned about his
own financial and political security and has infused his close
government circle with family members and people from the Kulyab
region. If Rahmonov were king, he and his family would be
financed under the government's budget, meaning a smaller group
of people would be living off state money instead of the current
hundreds benefiting from Rahmonov's position. As king, Rahmonov
would still exert influence, but it would not be as overreaching
because there would be an elected President or Prime Minister.
Over time, the monarch would become a figurehead.


16. (SBU) COMMENT: It is likely that PER was formed as a
"pocket party" to give the illusion of "democratic opposition"
as the government cracks down on the parties it does not like.


Boboyev's emphasis on the need for economic development and
reform rather than relying on Western aid is a Rahmonov talking
point. As head of the Transport Institute, Boboyev is a
government-appointed bureaucrat, leaving little question about
the "independence" of his party. His desire for a monarchy with
"King Rahmonov" is something we cannot fathom except to suggest
it may be an atavistic memory about Central Asia's medieval
khans. However, the trend for the last several centuries has
been in the opposite direction -- toward democracy. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND


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