TAJIKISTAN NOT OVERLY PLEASED BY NEW RUSSIA-UZBEKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001839

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, SA, INR, EB
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR EU RS UZ TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN NOT OVERLY PLEASED BY NEW RUSSIA-UZBEKISTAN
ALLIANCE

REF: HILLMEYER E-MAIL DTD 11-18-05

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a meeting with the Ambassador, Foreign
Minister Nazarov did not hide his unease about the November 14
Russia-Uzbekistan Alliance. Tajikistan is concerned that
Tashkent will use it's "new best friend" status with Moscow to
harm Dushanbe's interests. He judged it would be unthinkable
for Russia to establish a military base in Uzbekistan in the
near term. He also criticized the European Union sanctions for
not including "big fish" like President Karimov himself. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) On November 21, Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov told the
Ambassador that only two points in the November 14
Russia-Uzbekistan agreement are serious: mutual assistance in
the event of an invasion, and major military-technical
assistance to the Uzbek military. Nazarov asked sardonically,
"So who's threatening Uzbekistan? Kyrgyzstan? I don't think
they are planning to invade. Tajikistan? We're not planning to
declare war. Afghanistan? Not likely. And how is Russia going
to help reform Uzbekistan's military when it can't even reform
its own?"


3. (C) Nazarov judged the real problem for Tajikistan is such
close relations between Tashkent and Moscow will negatively
influence other issues. "We're especially concerned that
Karimov met [RusAl Chairman Oleg] Deripaska in Moscow. We're
worried about his aims. We have information that Karimov will
do everything possible to convince Deripaska to abandon his
plans to invest in aluminum in Tajikistan and to finish Rogun
dam and hydroelectric station."


4. (C) Nazarov was less than pleased with the briefing memo the
Russian Embassy in Dushanbe had provided the Tajik Government
about the Russia-Uzbekistan agreement. 'There wasn't anything
more than what we'd already seen in the press." He added
sarcastically, "The important stuff must all be secret."


5. (C) In response to a question how Tajikistan would react to
a new Russian military base in Uzbekistan, Nazarov said in the
short term such a development would be "unthinkable," because it
would be especially bad "diplomatic ethics" for the Russians to
move in as soon as the Americans depart from Karshi-Khanabad.


6. (C) Uzbekistan may eventually join the Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CSTO),according to Nazarov, but it cannot
be permitted to emerge as "Moscow's enforcer in Central Asia -
CSTO works by consensus."

EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY


7. (C) Referring to the recent decision to fold the Central
Asia Cooperation Organization into the Eurasian Economic
Community (EEC),Nazarov also expressed caution. He judged if
Uzbekistan is willing to accept and abide by all previous EEC
agreements, especially open borders, then the new arrangement is
positive. "You can imagine that we would welcome Uzbekistan
opening its border with us and facilitating trade, but~," he
trailed off.

EUROPEAN UNION SANCTIONS NOT SERIOUS


8. (C) Nazarov volunteered that the European Union's list of 12


Uzbek officials sanctioned as a result of Andijon is not very
serious "because it should have included the 'big fish' like
Karimov and Foreign Minister Ganiyev."


9. (C) COMMENT: Although philosophical and phlegmatic as
always, Nazarov did not hide his concerns about the new
Russia-Uzbekistan Alliance because he fears Karimov will try to
use it to harm Tajikistan's interests. His comments about
Karimov courting Deripaska were especially telling, because
Rahmonov and his government are putting a whole lot of their
economic eggs in Deripaska's basket. We also were intrigued
that he criticized the Russian Embassy for not being more
forthcoming than the press reports. The bottom line is that
Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry is not especially pleased with
this new development. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND


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