TAJIKISTAN: SERIOUS POLITICIAN ZOYIROV CHARGES RAHMONOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001828

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, EUR/PPD, DRL, S/P
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPAO RS TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: SERIOUS POLITICIAN ZOYIROV CHARGES RAHMONOV
"ILLEGITIMATE" AND TWO NEW PARTIES "ARTIFICIAL"

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan Chairman
Zoyirov continues to be a voice in the Tajik political
wilderness logically and intelligently demanding that the
Government of Tajikistan conform to the laws in its constitution
- at least in part because he was one of the key drafters of the
constitution which he based in large part on the U.S. model. He
asked that the West speak out more forcefully for democracy in
Tajikistan. Although he seems to be clean and honestly
democratic, his constituency is miniscule (less than 2 percent
of the electorate) and is limited mainly to the upper levels of
the urban intelligentsia. Nevertheless, Zoyirov is worth
listening to and cultivating. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) Chairman
Rahmatullo Zoyirov called on the Ambassador November 17,
accompanied by independent journalist Marat Mamadshoyev.
Zoyirov asked the Ambassador to make a public statement to
support Zoyirov's recent press release declaring President
Rahmonov illegitimate by constitutional standards. (NOTE:
Zoyirov was one of the original drafters of Tajikistan's
constitution and served as the President's legal adviser until
he resigned to protest the June 2003 referendum that gave
Rahmonov the possibility of two more seven-year terms that could
keep him in office until 2020. END NOTE.)


3. (C) The Ambassador explained that a diplomat cannot be
partisan in internal political affairs, but affirmed he would
continue to emphasize in public the importance of democratic
process. Zoyirov well understood this, and simply deployed his
request as an opening gambit for a more serious discussion of
democracy, or lack thereof, in Tajikistan.

CONTINUE TO SPEAK OUT FOR DEMOCRACY


4. (C) Zoyirov charged that the U.S. Embassy has gone silent on
democracy issues since mid-2004. The Ambassador refuted this
and said we would send Zoyirov every press statement and
transcript on democracy since June 2004.


5. (C) The Ambassador acknowledged that the Tajik Government
has indeed gone backward on democracy and that the U.S. Embassy
has well documented it for Washington. He explained in detail
that, since mid-2004, the Tajik Government has faced steadily
increasing pressure from Moscow, as a result of the "color
revolutions," to limit the influence and even presence of the
United States and the European Union in Tajikistan. Related to
this, the government has step by step cracked down on anything
and anyone construed to be an agent of influence for change,
including independent political parties and opposition mass
media and even the international Rotary Club. Zoyirov fully
concurred.

PRESIDENTIAL DECISIONS MADE BY EMOTION


6. (C) The Ambassador noted that his explanation of pressure
from Moscow is not meant to exonerate Rahmonov, who is
responsible for his own actions. Zoyirov explained, from his
own experience in the Presidential Apparat, that Rahmonov,
somewhat like Uzbekistan's Karimov, is emotional rather than
analytical and intellectual. When he was in the Apparat,
Zoyirov said that he and his staff would spend six weeks
carefully drafting to meet international standards and then


broadly clearing presidential decrees to improve governance.
But Rahmonov as likely as not, to the staff's great astonishment
and chagrin, rejected them just before he was to sign them,
based on whichever special interest had most recently had his
ear.

TWO NEW PARTIES "ARTIFICIAL"


7. (C) The Ambassador asked whether Zoyirov thought that the
two newly registered political parties - the Agrarian Party of
Tajikistan (APT) and the Party of Economic Reforms (PER) are
legitimate and independent or government-created pocket parties.
He noted the notoriously legalistic Ministry of Justice had
registered them on their first tries. Zoyirov responded that of
course the parties are illegitimate government tools, if for no
other reason than their chairmen are academic rectors who are
government-approved civil servants. (NOTE: Zoyirov released a
press statement on November 18 describing the APT and PER as
"artificial." END NOTE.) He explained these parties will be
allowed to give "soft criticism" of the government to give the
illusion of open political debate for Western consumption.

OBAIDULLOYEV PANTING BUT TOLD TO BACK OFF


8. (C) The Ambassador asked if Chairman of Parliament and Mayor
of Dushanbe Mahmadsaid Obaidulloyev will emerge as a serious
presidential contender for the late 2006 presidential election.
(NOTE: Obaidulloyev - his mafia nickname is "Bini," "the nose"
- has long been fuming because he thought he had a gentleman's
agreement with Rahmonov that 2006 would be his "turn" to be
president before the 2003 referendum overturned his
expectations. END NOTE.) Zoyirov said that Tajiks, especially
Kulyobis, would probably view Obaidulloyev as a legitimate
contender, and that he indeed has a powerful desire to be
president, if only to better pay off his own cronies. However,
Moscow has made clear to both Rahmonov and Obaidulloyev they are
"on the same team" - i.e., pro-Moscow - and cannot be allowed to
tear each other down.

DEMOCRACY SMALL GRANT STYMIED


9. (C) Journalist Mahmadshoyev asked if his U.S. Embassy
Democracy Small Grant to create an independent newspaper,
"Imruz" ("Today"),could be extended beyond its November 30
expiration. He has been unable to register "Imruz" with the
Ministry of Justice, he's been explicitly told, because "Imruz"
has U.S. funding. (COMMENT: The original grant was for a
"consortium of journalists to create an independent newspaper."
In fact, Mahmadshoyev has now allied himself with Zoyirov's
SDPT, and "Imruz" would likely become a party voice. END
COMMENT.) The Ambassador agreed to extend the grant, and
suggested Mahmadshoyev explore an independent web site for his
project, or other creative means, not yet subject to the
knuckle-draggers, of working around the Ministry of Justice
legalisms.


10. (C) COMMENT: Tajikistan is one year away from presidential
elections, which it is universally assumed President Rahmonov
will win. Even without the daily "guidance" from Moscow, he
likely would maneuver to ensure that he has no legitimate
competition. We are impressed that Zoyirov appears to be the
only politician in Tajikistan willing to take public stances
against Rahmonov and his regime. He may calculate, because he
was not corrupt during his government service, unlike the
imprisoned Democratic Party of Tajikistan Chairman Mahmadruzi
Iskandarov, that he can risk confronting the regime because the
West would come to his defense. That said, even though he seems
to be clean and honestly democratic, his constituency is


miniscule, likely no more than two percent of the electorate,
and is limited mainly to the upper levels of the urban
intelligentsia who have had some degree of exposure to the West.
Would he be a good president for Tajikistan? Probably yes.
But he does not have a glimmer of hope of winning a free
election in the current stage of Tajikistan's political
development. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND


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