Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DUSHANBE1814
2005-11-14 08:13:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

TAJIKISTAN: IMAGINED REPORT TO MOSCOW BY THE RUSSIAN

Tags:  PREL PGOV PINR KDEM RS TI 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001814 

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, SA, S/P
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM RS TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: IMAGINED REPORT TO MOSCOW BY THE RUSSIAN
AMBASSADOR

REF: DUSHANBE 1812

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001814

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/CACEN, EUR/RUS, SA, S/P
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM RS TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: IMAGINED REPORT TO MOSCOW BY THE RUSSIAN
AMBASSADOR

REF: DUSHANBE 1812

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) The following is an Embassy Dushanbe exercise to imagine
a report that Russian Ambassador Ramazan Abdulatipov might
submit to the Kremlin. It draws on Post's observations of the
last 18 months, Russian and regional media reports, and other
reporting. This cable should be read as a companion piece to
reftel.


2. (C) BEGIN TEXT:

Respected Vladimir Vladimirovich!

I want to report to you that we can put Tajikistan firmly in the
"stable" column, thanks to the groundwork you've laid since
early last year. In response to the American's stabbing their
"Friend Shevandnadze" in the back at the end of 2003 (not to
mention Kiev and Bishkek!),our consistent message from the
beginning of these "color revolutions" has paid off - that the
U.S. so-called democracy NGOs are really covert intel tools sent
under the guise of "assistance" to plant the seeds of popular
revolution to overthrow legal governments. We picked off
National Democratic Institute early on here because they had set
themselves up by not having registered properly in previous
years. We should never under-estimate the power of Soviet-style
legalism when we need to use it. Even better, at the very same
time we set that particular samovar bubbling, the hapless
Americans sent in Freedom House. Knowing how long any
bureaucracy takes to gear up, it was probably just a
coincidence, but the optic was perfect. I wish you could have
seen Tajik President Emomali Sharifovich Rahmonov's expression
when we laid out the whole scenario for him. We rightly judge
that he has an abundance of street smarts and a dangerous
independent streak that bears close watching, but in the end
he's just like the others we deal with, burning to hang onto
power at any price.

Your first great public triumph in Tajikistan was when you went
to Dushanbe on October 16 last year to initial the agreements on

debt forgiveness, the legal-basis establishment of our permanent
military base, and our tactical withdrawal of the FSB Border
Force. I especially liked the way our clever guys got the word
to Emomali Sharifovich, "Protect our base, or we'll find someone
who can." Yes, we had to bite the bullet to get control of the
essential Nurek Space Object Tracking station, that was ours in
the first place, but you know why it was worth it.

It was well understood in advance part of the debt deal included
Chubais from RAO UES agreeing to sink some non-money into
Emomali Sharifovich's pet hydro-electric projects that the West
had pooh-poohed up until that time. But the real stroke of
genius was including the useful tool Oleg Deripaska and his
RusAl billions in your delegation at the last moment and
throwing stardust in Emomali's eyes for Deripaska to "invest" in
the Tajik Aluminum Plant (TadAZ) and the Rogun Dam. Exactly as
predicted, Rahmonov swallowed without chewing the absurd promise
of a new aluminum plant in his hometown. Of course, that
"little consideration" we put in the Rahmonov family bank
account in exchange for free run at TadAZ didn't hurt!

Your next great landmark was that inconvenient April 2005
meeting with Emomali Sharifovich in Sochi. Yes, I know he
insisted on interrupting your vacation, but you have to admit


now it was well worth it. He arrived blowing smoke out of his
ears because our idiot Prosecutor General had released
Mahmadruzi Iskandarov - the so-called "democrat" - from
detention in Moscow and refused to extradite him. But Rahmonov
left all smiles the next day after you agreed we'd scoop that
rich "chornaya jopa" Iskandarov off the streets and bundle him
bound and gagged back to Dushanbe. You bought great credit with
that one, Vladimir Vladimirovich! We should never
under-estimate the burning desire of new wealth and power to
eliminate the opposition.

Since then, Rahmonov owes you big-time, and he's making his
interest payments with admirable regularity. You have to give
him credit for how he's instituted his stealth attack on the
American NGOs, and I predict we can count on him to
"over-fulfill the plan." The Americans know what's up, but
Washington probably won't do anything while we kill them with a
thousand small cuts.

I can't take credit for any of this. You and the boys had it
all under control before I got here. But I have faithfully
instituted your orders, Vladimir Vladimirovich. Symbols count!
Under my amiable predecessaor, Maksim Aleksandrovich Peshkov,
our embassy seemed fairly benign on the surface, overtly
collegial with the few Western embassies here and pretending
"druzhba narodov" with the Central Asians. As you suggested,
I've changed the tone. No more make-nice. No more schmoozing
at those awful little diplomatic events. What a coincidence
that I'm usually "previously engaged"! It just adds to the new
mystique.

I also have to give credit to our FSB, SVR, and GRU boys. They
know how to wrap up the little brothers in the Presidential
Apparat and the Ministry of Security. I love the way Security
Minister Abdurahimov pisses on the Americans' shoes. One more
thing - keep sending your ministers here every few weeks. The
contrast with the West doesn't go unnoticed, I assure you.

And so, allow me one more time to congratulate you, Vladimir
Vladimirovich. You've almost wrapped up Emomali Sharifovich,
and we don't even have to hold our noses the way we do with that
snake Karimov in Uzbekistan. Well done!

END TEXT.


3. (C) COMMENT: We emphasize once again that this is an
imagined report. In fact, Tajikistan continues to make clear,
and generally implements, its "open-door" multilateral foreign
policy that seeks to balance global and regional interests and
pressures. That said, the creeping campaign against U.S. NGOs
following the "color revolutions" and the marked change in tone
at the Russian Embassy are inescapable. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND


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