IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U)

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001642

SIPDIS


NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/7/2015
TAGS: MCAP TI
SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION (U)

CLASSIFIED BY: Jonathan Edwards, DATT, USDAO Dushanbe, DIA.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b)

CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN

SIPDIS

SERIAL: (U) IIR 6 947 0006 06.

COUNTRIES: (U) TAJIKISTAN (TI),RUSSIA (RU).

IPSP: (U) IFC2500, IFC1913, IFC2510

SUBJECT: IIR 6 947 0006 06/NATIONAL GUARD DEPLOYMENT LIMITATION
(U)

WARNING: (U) THIS IS AN INFORMATION REPORT, NOT FINALLY
EVALUATED INTELLIGENCE. REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO
FOREIGN

-------------- --------------
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
-------------- --------------

DOI: (U) 20051006

REQS: (U) UTCX206000504, DHCD111044, DHCD045058

SOURCE: (C) //6 947 0023 05// HOST NATION FIELD GRADE MILITARY
OFFICER WITH DIRECT AND INDIRECT ACCESS TO THE INFORMATION.
USDAO HAS AN ESTABLISHED RELATIONSHIP WITH SOURCE. CONTEXT
STATEMENT - RO AND SOURCE MEET ON A REGULAR LIAISON BASIS AS A
RESULT OF RO'S AND SOURCE'S OFFICIAL DUTIES. SOURCE APPEARS TO
BE A STRONG SUPPORTER OF INCREASED MILITARY RELATIONS BETWEEN
UNITED STATES AND TAJIKISTAN. SOURCE IS AWARE THAT INFORMATION
WILL REACH U.S. INTELLIGENCE CHANNELS AND COMMENTS MAY BE MEANT
TO INFLUENCE AS MUCH AS TO INFORM.

SUMMARY: (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) THE NATIONAL GUARD IS NOT
CAPABLE OF DEPLOYING TO AREAS IN SOUTHEASTERN TAJIKISTAN. THE
NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGES THERE IS A PERSISTENT THREAT IN THE
REGION.

TEXT: 1. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) ON 6 OCTOBER 2005 RO MET
WITH SOURCE. RO ASKED SOURCE IF THE NATIONAL GUARD HAD ANY
PLANS OF CREATING A PRESENCE IN THE GORNO-BADAKHSHAN REGION
(GBAO),GIVEN THE REGION'S PROXIMITY TO AFGHANISTAN, LIMITED
GOVERNMENT CONTROL IN THE PAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMIST
PRESENCE. RO NOTED THAT THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE AND BORDER
GUARDS ARE PRESENT IN KHOROG, BUT RO WAS UNSURE OF TAJIKISTAN'S
PRESENT COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY THERE. SOURCE RESPONDED
THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD COULD NOT AFFORD TO DEPLOY UNITS SO FAR
FROM DUSHANBE. SOURCE SAID THAT HE WAS AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL
THREAT IN THE REGION, BUT HE HIMSELF HAD NEVER BEEN THERE.


2. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) SOURCE SAID THAT THE NATIONAL
GUARD CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ITS COUNTER-TERRORISM CAPABILITY AND
WAS AT THIS TIME THE GOVERNMENT'S SECOND RESPONSE TO TERRORIST
THREATS, AFTER THE MINISTRY OF SECURITY.

COMMENTS: 1. (C//REL TO USA, GBR AND AUS) FIELD COMMENT: THE
NATIONAL GUARD ACKNOWLEDGING IT LACKS THE CAPABILITY TO DEPLOY
TO THE GBAO REGION WAS A SURPRISE TO RO. SOURCE HAD PREVIOUSLY
TOLD RO THAT THE NATIONAL GUARD PLANNED TO BASE A BATTALION
SOUTHEAST OF DUSHANBE. DURING RO'S RECENT TRIP TO GBAO, RO DID
NOT SEE ANY MILITARY PRESENCE DEDICATED OR TRAINED IN DETERING
EXTREMIST/TERRORIST THREATS IN THE REGION. PREVIOUS POST
REPORTING INDICATES THEIR APPEARS TO BE GOVERNMENT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT AN EXTREMIST PRESENCE EXISTS IN THE REGION,
YET AT THIS TIME NEITHER THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OR THE NATIONAL

GUARD APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING A CAPABILITY TO CONFRONT POTENTIAL
THREATS. IN ADDITION, THE TAJIKS PERSISTENT PROBLEMS WITH
MAINTAINING AND OPERATING ITS ROTARY WING FLEET, MAKES IT
UNLIKELY THE TAJIKS RETAIN A SUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO RAPIDLY
DEPLOY UNITS FROM DUSHANBE TO THE GBAO REGION.


3. (U) SOURCES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER CONTACT.


4. (U) DIRECT ANY QUESTIONS CONCERNING THIS IIR TO DIA/DHO-2 AT
STU III (202) 231-7299, OR DSN 428-7299.

COLL: (U) AB.
INSTR: (U) U.S. NO.
PREP: (U) 6-04708.
ENCL: (U) NONE.
ACQ: (U) DUSHANBE, TAJIKISTAN (20051006)
DISSEM: (U) FIELD: EMBASSY AT DUSHANBE.
WARNING: (U) REPORT CLASSIFIED CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN
DRVD FM: DHS HUMINT SCG OCT 04
DECL ON: 20151006

HOAGLAND


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