SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF SECRETARY RICE TO TAJIKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUSHANBE 001617

SIPDIS


EUR/CACEN
S - SUSAN ELLIOTT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/6/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL TI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF SECRETARY RICE TO TAJIKISTAN

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

Madame Secretary:


1. (U) Embassy Dushanbe welcomes your visit to Tajikistan, the
first-ever by a Secretary of State to Tajikistan as an
independent country. The historical importance is not lost on
Tajikistan's leaders or people. All will have high expectations
of a successful visit leading to closer cooperation.

TAJIKISTAN A KEY REGIONAL PLAYER


2. (U) While it has taken Tajikistan some time to recover from
the civil war of the 1990's, it has taken even longer for the
international community to realize that Tajikistan is now firmly
on the map as a regional player in Central Asia. Tajikistan
remains the poorest post-Soviet state, with many people getting
by on a monthly salary of only $30 a month. However, that is
supplemented by Tajikistan's strong family networks and
remittances from Tajiks working abroad, mainly in Russia.
Tajikistan's leaders hope to break out of this economic dilemma
through an ambitious hydro-energy development effort that would
power not only a growing industrial capability at home, but also
Afghanistan and Pakistan, two countries with growing energy
requirements.


3. (U) Tajikistan's borders are open to trade, despite
Uzbekistan's recalcitrance (Uzbekistan does not even allow
flights between Tashkent and Dushanbe) and there is growing
interest by China, Iran, Pakistan, and the other Central Asian
states in trading with this former Silk Road state.

TAJIK LEADERSHIP AND POLITICS


4. (C) President Emomali Rahmonov is a former collective farm
administrator who has proven to be adept at moving his agenda at
a pace that the public accepts. Polls and our own observations
confirm that he is for now a respected and well-liked leader who
has brought stability to a country that experienced a wrenching
civil war. Rahmonov can be ruthless with opponents, but some of
this opponents are indeed dangerous, such as the former Drug
Control Chief Mirzoyev, who probably would not have hesitated to
plot a coup against Rahmonov. could have threatened Rahmonov
for power. The United States urged Rahmonov to remove Mirzoyev,
and he did. Rahmonov's maneuvering has allowed him to run for
two additional seven-year terms, and potentially be in power
until 2020. In that amount of time, he could certainly wear out
his welcome, especially if his inner circle is seen as corruptly
reaping too many of the benefits of Tajikistan's development.
Tajikistan is a secular, centralized but multi-party state with
most real decisions made by President Rahmonov. Tajikistan
boasts the only legal Islamic Party in Central Asia. The
government continues to improve in terms of delivering services
and accepting international norms.

U.S.-TAJIK RELATIONS


5. (C) There is definitely a reservoir of goodwill for the
United States because of U.S. humanitarian assistance during the
civil war. The United States is still recognized as a major
partner, but Russia's influence is large and pervasive. The
United States can only remain relevant in Tajikistan through
continued engagement - assistance for counternarcotics, border
management, and, increasingly, economic reform. Attracting a
major U.S. company to Tajikistan would bolster the political
relationship enormously. Mining, oil and gas, adventure
tourism, and hydropower are the most promising sectors for
economic development.

TAJIK-AFGHAN RELATIONS


6. (U) While some Central Asian states see Afghanistan as
simply a source of instability and extremism, Tajikistan sees
Afghanistan as a good neighbor and a country whose future is
vitally tied to its own. More than instability, it is drug
trafficking from Afghanistan transiting Tajikistan that
threatens Tajikistan's future. International assistance to help
Tajikistan police its own borders after this year's withdrawal
of Russian border forces is critical to Tajikistan remaining a
state with border integrity and indeed sovereignty. There is a
danger of Tajikistan becoming a narco-state if the flow of drugs
is not limited. President Rahmonov visits with President Karzai
regularly and supports Afghanistan publicly and through the few
means he has at his disposal, including with Drug Control Agents
operating in Afghanistan and cooperating with Afghan

authorities.

DEMOCRACY AND PRESS FREEDOM


7. (C) We're not there yet, but neither is this another
Uzbekistan. Tajikistan is not in danger of a "Color Revolution"
because the government is genuinely popular and respected.
However, the government uses that popularity to deal
aggressively with opponents both in politics and the media. The
Embassy tries to reinforce the message that those means of using
power are not needed and counterproductive. We also emphasize
that greater democracy provides for greater stability, a key
theme of the President, given the country's collective fear of
returning to any sort of turbulence that could upset
Tajikistan's slow and steady progress.


HOAGLAND


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