DOES EVERYONE LOVE A PARTY? TAJIKS ABOUT TO FIND OUT

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001596

SIPDIS


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SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET USE.

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PINR PGOV TI
SUBJECT: DOES EVERYONE LOVE A PARTY? TAJIKS ABOUT TO FIND OUT


1. (SBU) Three new political parties have recently started
the process of registering with Ministry of Justice. Whether
they will be successful depends less on their paperwork and more
on their support of or threat to existing power structures.


2. (U) Party of the Economic Reform of Tajikistan (PERT):
Chairman Olim Boboev, rector of the University of Transport,
former rector of the University of Trade, and 1994 International
Visitor Program alumnus, has gathered support from economists,
social scientists and businessmen, mainly from the Hisor Valley
and Sughd region. The 1119-member party wants to reduce the
power of the president by transferring some presidential
authority to the Prime Minister; it also aims to strengthen
Tajikistan's market economy. The party has no headquarters; the
chairman is currently managing all day-to-day party business.


3. (SBU) Boboev is a pragmatic, strong economist, short on
charisma but long on economic and trade experience. Four years
ago, the government replaced him as rector for the University of
Trade with someone from the President's home region. Boboev is
not particularly pro-government, and feels that existing
political parties cater too strongly to particular regions and
interests.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The PERT represents a quiet movement of
people who want more than just stability from the government and
have become increasingly disenchanted with the Government's slow
pace of reform. Chances of Registration: 1 in 10. (Our "books"
on the chances of registration are all in-house and the odds
purely speculative.) END COMMENT


5. (U) Progressive Youth Party of Tajikistan (PYPT): Not to
be deterred by conventional definitions of youth, 45-year old,
Saidja'far Ismonov founded the Party of the Progressive Youth of
Tajikistan (PYPT). A long-time Communist Youth (Komsomol)
worker, which he turned into the Youth Committee of Tajikistan,
Ismonov teaches at the Agrarian University of Tajikistan. The
party has more than 750 supporters from across the country who
have applied to be members, and convoked its first congress at
the Agrarian University September 12. However, according to
Tajikistan's Law on Political Parties, an educational facility
cannot be used for political activities, so another congress is
planned for October 29 in the building of the State Publishing
House Sharqi Ozod.


6. (U) According to Ismonov, the PYPT goals include
assisting the Government to strengthen democratic institutions
and implement the rights fixed in the Constitution to protect
the peace, security and the public tranquility. The party also
aims to help young people better understand their rights and
improve their status in the society.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: The party is largely thought to be a
spin-off of the ruling PDPT. At the first PYPT meeting, Ismanov
let slip that he already belongs to the PDPT, which marred the
image of the Progressive Youth as a "new" party. Ismanov is
known for being loyal but not particularly articulate. His
platform essentially supports the existing power structure.
Some say government forces are behind the creation of the
Progressive Youth party so that the PDPT will not be the only
pro-government party in the next parliamentary elections.
However, the obvious connections between Ismanov and the
government may now hinder his party's chances for registration
and popularity. Chances of Registration: 1 in 2. END COMMENT


8. (U) Party of Vahdat (Unity) of Tajikistan (PVT):
Chairman Hikmatullo Saidov, 47, is trying for the second year to
get his Vahdat (Unity) party registered. The government last
year denied the party registration after allegedly finding
several false signatures in applications of supporters/members
in the Jirgatol District. Most of the 2000 PVT members come
from the Rasht region, previously an opposition stronghold, and
now live in various districts in the south.


9. (U) Saidov is a former member of the presidium of the
Democratic Party of Tajikistan who broke off after differences
with party leaders. His party represents the interests of the
Gharmi popular people as well as Davlat Usmon, former member and
deputy chairman of the Islamic Renaissance Party (IRPT),and

former Deputy PM and Minister of Economic and Trade. Usmon is
rumored to want to run in the November 2006 presidential
elections, but needs a political party to nominate and support
him during the election. (Note: In previous elections, Usmon
only reluctantly ran as an IRPT candidate.)


10. (SBU) COMMENT: The Government knows that the PVT will
nominate Usmon for the presidential election and may try to
block the party's registration. On the other hand, the
President will need at least one opponent to make it a race.
Chances of registration: 1 in 40. END COMMENT.


HOAGLAND


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