PEACE PROCESS: GOI DISCOURAGED, BUT COMMITTED TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000049

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2014
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EI UK PTER NIPP
SUBJECT: PEACE PROCESS: GOI DISCOURAGED, BUT COMMITTED TO
FORGE AHEAD


Classified By: AMB JAMES C. KENNY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Summary: On January 13, the Ambassador met with
Michael Collins, senior advisor to the prime minister, and
separately with members of parliament. Anger and
discouragement are rampant following the assertion that the
PIRA is likely behind the December 20 robbery of Belfast's
Northern Bank. Nonetheless, the GOI is determined to move
ahead with the peace process, and considers the Good Friday
Agreement (GFA) and the December 8 joint statement by the UK
and Irish PMs to be the starting point. PM Ahern is clearly
sending Gerry Adams a message by deferring a meeting, but
Collins said Ireland would likely oppose sanctioning Sinn
Fein, and would not jeopardize the interests of nationalists,
nor let unionists think their agenda is more possible. At the
same time, Sinn Fein can no longer expect any "brownie
points" from decommissioning. Collins also delivered a
message from PM Ahern to the effect that Ahern urges the U.S.
to continue to facilitate visas for Sinn Fein. Collins said
Ahern believes Members of Congress and some Sinn Fein
supporters in the U.S. have leverage with Sinn Fein and could
set Sinn Fein straight on the need to end paramilitarism and
criminality. Collins also raised March 17 events in
Washington, seemingly wanting to confirm that events were
still on and that decisions about who to include were not
locked in stone, yet. Later, parliamentarians also raised
March 17 with the ambassador, suggesting that we invite some
of them as a counterpoint to what they referred to as the
many Sinn Fein members who usually travel to Washington for
the day. Also on January 13, Justice Minister McDowell
issued a very hard hitting statement (emailed to EUR, S/P,
Belfast and London) against Sinn Fein, in which he said Sinn
Fein and IRA were "two sides of the same coin" and that Sinn
Fein tries to "rewrite history and to baptize the most
brutal, cowardly, blood-soaked, divisive, anti-republican,
sectarian, hate-driven and destructive terror campaign as a
heroic struggle for peace and human rights." End Summary


Ambassador's Meeting with Michael Collins
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2. (C) Michael Collins, advisor to the Prime Minister, said
the GOI is still "trying to get its head around" next steps
in the peace process, following Chief Constable Hugh Orde's
announcement that the Provisional IRA (PIRA) is most likely
behind the December 20 robbery of Belfast's Northern Bank.
Collins said the GOI has no firm strategy, yet, but
underlined that the Good Friday Agreement, and the progress
the PMs announced on December 8, remain the baseline for
future talks. Collins outlined upcoming meetings with UK
officials (FM Ahern-Paul Murphy on January 17; PM Ahern-PM
Blair late January/early February) and said that although
Gerry Adams calls daily seeking a meeting, PM Ahern will not
have time to see him until after his impending trade mission
to China, probably "around January 24." (Ahern leaves over
the weekend.) He also said that Martin Frazier, the Prime
Minister's new director for Northern Ireland (also at the
meeting) would travel to Belfast on Tuesday, January 18 for
what he referred to as talks with UK officials and Sinn Fein.


3. (C) Collins referred to PM Ahern's comments following
Hugh Orde's press conference to confirm that the GOI agrees
PIRA is likely behind the robbery. He said PIRA's likely
involvement puts the Irish government "in a bit of a bind"
and hurts its credibility. At the same time, Collins called
the facts of the robbery "murky," given the lack of evidence,
and said that unionists must understand allegations that PIRA
committed the robbery do not make the unionist agenda "more
possible." The Irish government, he said, "will not
jeopardize the interests of nationalists." He said that PM
Ahern is not likely to favor sanctions against Sinn Fein nor
to favor ending salaries to Stormont MLAs, but might feel
differently after the UK elections expected in May. He also
said that the IRA has lost all its leverage and can no longer
expect massive dividends from decommissioning. Weapons have
become a liability to Sinn Fein, and following the robbery,
Sinn Fein can no longer expect to earn brownie points for
decommissioning.

Robbery Derails Quiet GOI-Sinn Fein talks on Criminality
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4. (C) Turning to criminality, Collins revealed that Justice
Minister McDowell undertook a productive and quiet dialogue
with Sinn Fein following the December 8 statements by the
prime ministers. This came to a full stop after the robbery.

Dinner with parliamentarians
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5. (C) The ambassador also hosted a dinner January 13 for
parliamentarians from the governing Fianna Fail and
Progressive Democrats parties. Like the government, the TDs
believe IRA committed the robbery, citing the sophistication
of the crime, Hugh Orde's integrity, and especially the word
of PM Ahern. At the same time, they favor continuing the
peace process, seeing no alternative and fearing a return to
violence. They also described Sinn Fein's political talents
in the Republic, where their work organizing at the grass
roots level is extensive and effective. The parliamentarians
alleged voting irregularities by Sinn Fein and Sinn Fein's
unfair advantages in having more staff to help in local
offices (implying it was private funds, including from the
U.S., and illicit funds that allowed them to hire staff).
Additionally, they said Sinn Fein is able to intervene on so
many issues at parliament because its supporters in academia
and "high levels of Irish society" research and write
statements for them. Asked why they let Sinn Fein get away
with claiming to be the real republicans, the genuine
advocates of the poor, and the most "honest party," the
parliamentarians essentially shook their heads, noting their
own need to organize better at the grassroots, and Sinn Fein
members' discipline and workaholic habits. "They have no
social life!" lamented one parliamentarian.


Comment
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6. (C) COMMENT: Collins avoided saying that the Taoiseach is
deliberately holding Sinn Fein at arm's length, but Ahern
certainly could have made time to meet with Adams if he had
wanted to. Nonetheless, the Irish government's anger at Sinn
Fein does not alter its interest in resuming the peace
process. To have Sinn Fein weakened in Republic electoral
terms is in PM Ahern's interest as he contemplates 2007
general elections, as is getting Sinn Fein to renounce
criminality. In the end, however, the Irish government is
committed to the peace process, believes there can be no
solution without Sinn Fein, and, although willing to
capitalize politically and rhetorically on Sinn Fein's
troubles, does not appear ready to get exceptionally tough on
Sinn Fein. Justice Minister McDowell's statement is
interesting in this light because it is exceptionally
forthright. McDowell has often been the "heavy" with Sinn
Fein, both at the request of the PM and by personal and party
belief (McDowell is a Progressive Democrat, the more
conservative junior partner in government.) We suspect he is
throwing down a gauntlet both to Sinn Fein and to PM Ahern,
with the goal of ensuring a tough GOI stance on IRA
criminality. End Comment.
KENNY