IRISH AGRICULTURE MINISTER INFLEXIBLE ON EU DOHA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 001418

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: EAGR ETRD EI WTO
SUBJECT: IRISH AGRICULTURE MINISTER INFLEXIBLE ON EU DOHA
OFFER

REF: DUBLIN 1322 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Ambassador James C. Kenny; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: In a November 15 meeting with the
Ambassador, Agriculture Minister Mary Coughlan reiterated GOI
inflexibility on the EU agricultural proposal for the Doha
negotiations. She remarked that Irish farmers would not
allow further concessions on agriculture, as they faced an
uneven playing field in trade with countries like the United
States and Brazil. She also observed that CAP reforms and
industry consolidation were taking a toll on farm
communities, to the detriment of Ireland's communal
well-being. The Ambassador said that he understood the
Minister's political concerns, but he stressed the importance
of advancing the Doha Round as an opportunity to lift
hundreds of millions out of poverty. Coughlan's arguments
were consistent with views shared recently with Post by other
GOI officials, who have pointed up the dangers of offending
farmers ahead of Ireland's 2007 general elections. End
summary.

Mandelson at the Limit
--------------


2. (C) In a November 15 meeting with the Ambassador, Irish
Agriculture Minister Mary Coughlan reiterated GOI
inflexibility on the EU agricultural proposal for the Doha
negotiations leading to the December Hong Kong Ministerial.
Coughlan noted that Commissioner Mandelson had "pushed the
boat to the limit" with the EU's latest offer and that he
might have even exceeded his mandate on market access issues.
She also pointed out that she had been among the first
Member State agriculture ministers to oppose the EU's
original proposal as excessively generous.

A Loss of "Social Capital"
--------------


3. (C) Minister Coughlan highlighted the continuing economic
and social significance of the agricultural sector, which
currently accounts for nine percent of employment and five
percent of GNP. She observed that while the sector's
contribution to the overall economy had diminished, farm
communities remained integral to the fabric of Irish society.
She elaborated that, unlike in other EU countries, Irish
farms were comprised primarily of small land holdings that
were worked by individual families. Irish farmers recognized
that, to be competitive, the farm sector would have to
undergo technological upgrades and consolidation; this
process, however, would mean a loss of "social capital," the
term recently used by Prime Minister Ahern to convey communal
heritage and well-being. Added to this difficult transition
was the 2003 CAP reform package, which had been similarly
hard on farmers. Minister Coughlan added that the EU sugar
regime reforms, to be discussed at the November 22-24 EU
Agricultural Council meetings, would be another blow to the
sector, particularly for Ireland's 3,600 sugar beet farmers.

A Perception of an Uneven Playing Field
--------------


4. (C) Coughlan remarked that a lack of "parallelism" in
agricultural trade accounted for Irish farmers' opposition to
the EU proposals for the Doha negotiations. Rising food
imports from non-EU countries, including, most notably, beef,
were displacing local products in the Irish market, she
noted. At the same time, Irish farmers felt that EU
regulation on traceability in their production had hamstrung
their ability to compete with non-EU countries, especially
those that took a more laissez-faire attitude toward such
controls. Coughlan added that while Ireland was a
long-standing advocate of the developing world, WTO
negotiators needed to distinguish Sub-Saharan African
countries from countries like Brazil, which had
internationally competitive agricultural sectors and
significant capacity for expanded agricultural production.


5. (C) Ireland, she continued, also sought "parallelism"
with the United States. She explained that Irish farmers
would never agree to income support cuts beyond the CAP
reforms in exchange for "mere" U.S. promises to reduce income
subsidies in the yet-to-be finalized U.S. farm bill. "Our
farmers want a level playing field and more definitive
movement from the United States to that end," she concluded,
adding that questions on the evolving U.S. farm bill
diminished the credibility of the U.S. agricultural offer.

The Ambassador's Push for a Successful Doha Round
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The Ambassador said that he understood the political
dynamic underlying Coughlan's concerns, but he stressed the
importance of moving forward with the Doha Round and of
helping developing nations through trade. He cited World
Bank estimates that a successful Doha Round would lift
several hundred million people out of poverty. He also
observed that, in 20-30 years, there would be over 2 billion
people living in Africa and that the WTO negotiations would
directly affect the prospects for economic growth and food
sufficiency on the continent over that time frame The
Ambassador added that China had moved 400 million people out
of poverty since President Nixon's opening to the country in
the 1970s, a success that was built largely on increased
opportunities for trade and investment. This example, he
said, could find a mirror image in today's developing
countries with a successful Doha Round.


7. (C) Comment: The meeting with Minister Coughlan was the
latest Doha-focused discussion that the Ambassador/Post has
had with high-ranking GOI officials in recent weeks. Per
reftel, these officials have uniformly explained that the GOI
cannot support further EU concessions on agriculture, lest
the governing Fianna Fail party "lose" the politically
influential farm community ahead of Ireland's 2007 general
elections.
KENNY