FIANNA FAIL, LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, BUT

UNCLAS DUBLIN 001330

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS EI
SUBJECT: FIANNA FAIL, LOOKING TO THE FUTURE, BUT
OVERSHADOWED BY THE PAST



1. Summary: Fianna Fail held its annual conference


(Ard Fheis) in Killarney, October 21-22, where party
leaders focused on rallying the rank-and-file ahead of
the general elections, expected in May 2007. The
party has lost ground in recent months, and this was
their opportunity to regain it. Fianna Fail attempted
to reclaim the mantle of being the "true republican
party" from Sinn Fein, by announcing the reinstatement
of the annual military parade marking the Easter
Rising of 1916, along with a public holiday to mark
the event. It also announced its intention to recruit
members in Northern Ireland, thereby challenging Sinn
Fein's claim to being the only all-Ireland party. The
party took every opportunity to attack the opposition
parties and their policies, while putting forward very
few of their own. Delegates agreed on a number of
motions aimed at increasing the number of women
involved in decision-making within the party.
Proceedings were overshadowed by the sudden death of
Liam Lawlor, a former Fianna Fail member of
Parliament, subduing the atmosphere of the conference.
End summary.


Fianna Fail - The Republican party
--------------


2. In an attempt to reclaim from Sinn Fein the
mantle of "the true republican party", party president
and Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Bertie Ahern, in his
opening address to the conference, announced the
reinstatement of the 1916 Easter Parade. The military
parade, discontinued in 1970 following the outbreak of
violence in Northern Ireland in 1969, will pass the
General Post Office (GPO),headquarters of the rising,
next year on the 90th anniversary of the 1916 rising.
Rejecting the IRA's assertation that they are the
successors to the volunteers of 1916, Ahern said, to
enthusiastic applause, that the Defense Forces are
"the only legitimate army of the Irish People and the
true successors of the volunteers."


3. Ahern also announced the establishment of a 1916
Centenary Committee to plan a major celebration of the
100th anniversary of the rising. Delegates also
passed a motion to commemorate Easter 1916 by
declaring April 24 a public holiday (the date on which
the rising took place in 1916). A motion, calling on
the National Executive to initiate an active
recruitment campaign for members in Northern Ireland,
also passed comfortably, although it was unclear if
the party intends to compete in elections in Northern
Ireland in the near future. Delegates agreed, as
members of the "only true Irish republican movement",
not to refer to the Provisional Movement of Sinn Fein
and IRA as republicans. (Note: As elections approach,
there is a rush to claim title to "republicanism". In
addition to Fianna Fail's efforts, Fine Gael, the
largest opposition party, staged a major commemoration
of Michael Collins' death to highlight that it is the
legitimate heir to Collins' movement.)


Need to gain ground
--------------


4. Fianna Fail has lost ground to the opposition
parties in recent months. The public perception is
that the government has been wasteful in a number of
public service projects, the cost of living is rising,
and the health service requires reform. Party leaders
know that they face a challenge to recover public
confidence and must use the next 18 months or so to
convince the public once more that they should be
trusted to run the country after the next election.
Successive speakers listed the positive changes
brought about during the party's last eight years in
government, attacked the record of the last opposition
government (1994-97) and criticized the opposition
parties and their policies, or lack thereof.
Ironically, the party put forward few concrete
proposals of their own. Major policy initiatives will
be announced at a later date. Finance Minister Brian
Cowen is expected to introduce a substantial childcare
package in his budget on December 7, while a ten-year
plan on transport will be presented later this month.


Overshadowed by the past
--------------


5. Two former, and controversial, members of the
party overshadowed much of the Ard Fheis. News of the

death of Liam Lawlor, a former member of parliament,


implicated in a number of planning scandals, filtered
through on the second day of the conference. The
circumstances of his death, in a car crash in Moscow,
dominated conversations. The Ard Fheis voted to send
"best wishes" to another former member, the
controversial, former Taoiseach, Charles Haughey. As
the party enters its 80th year, it emphatically voted
to extend best wishes to its former leader, currently
suffering from cancer, in his 80th year. Both former
TD's may have been shunned by the party in recent
years, but as one speaker put it, "Fianna Fail is a
family, and blood is thicker than water."


Getting the balance right
--------------


6. The focus of much of the debate at the Ard Fheis
was on party organization. Fianna Fail cited 2005 as
the "Year of Organization", a year in which the party
would get its house in order, in preparation for the
next general election. Internally, several members of
the party have been critical of the lack of female
participation, particularly at representational level.
The National Executive put forward a number of motions
to address this. Despite opposition to some of the
motions, on the grounds that candidates should be
chosen for their abilities, rather than their gender,
a passionate speech by Finance Minister Brian Cowen
convinced sufficient voters to pass them comfortably.
He admitted the policy was not ideal, but was an
improvement on the status quo. Delegates endorsed the
move to ensure ten of the twenty delegates elected by
the Ard Fheis to the National Executive are women.
Delegates also set a target of having women make up
one-third of election candidates by 2014, a policy to
be reviewed in 2009.


A leader in waiting?
--------------


7. The leadership of Fianna Fail is not an issue,
for now. In Bertie Ahern, the party has a strong and
popular leader who, unusually for Fianna Fail, enjoys
the support of the vast majority of the party. It is
Ahern's stated aim to retire from politics at the age
of 60. Ideally the 54-year-old would like to lead his
party into government for a third successive term in
2007, before handing over to his preferred successor,
Minister for Finance Brian Cowen. Cowen's
performances over the weekend suggested he was indeed
a leader in waiting. From his passionate speech
encouraging delegates to accept gender balance, his
speech outlining the economic successes under Fianna
Fail, to his introduction of the party leader for his
keynote address, Cowen struck a chord with delegates.
A leadership contest is a long way off, but on these
performances, Cowen will be difficult to beat.


Leaders Address
--------------


8. The party leader's half-hour keynote speech
usually defines the mood and direction of an Ard
Fheis. Bertie Ahern's keynote address to the
conference was designed to win back some of the trust
and support lost over recent months, particularly in
relation to the management of the public sector.
Ahern said he was focused on getting value for money
from the investments being made in the public service.
He will enter into a new round of social partnership
talks, he said, seeking reform and value for money.
Ahern conceded that reform was needed in the health
service, but pledged that he and Minister for Health
Mary Harney were committed to improve every aspect of
the health service. His speech, however, lacked a
major theme, and there were no major initiatives
announced. Instead, Ahern chose to emphasize the
achievements of his government.


Comment
--------------


9. The general election campaign is well under way.
Fianna Fail accepts that some losses are inevitable.
The party attempted to minimize losses to Sinn Fein
(its main competitor for votes in many constituencies)
by retaking ownership of the title of the Republican
party. Fine Gael and Labour's record in government,

and their lack of coherent policies, were attacked at


every opportunity. With general elections 18 months
away, Fianna Fail has time on its side, and there are
a number of factors which may give them the boost they
need. The Government will announce major changes in
how childcare is organized; the Tanaiste's health
service reforms will begin; roads will be built and
Special Savings Incentive Accounts (SSIA's) will have
matured (SSIA's are a Government scheme to encourage
people to save, where savers will get euro 1.27 per
month for every euro 5.08 they save over a minimum of
5 years). These developments, the party believes,
will create a feel-good factor that will bring Fianna
Fail back to power for a third successive term.

KENNY