Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DUBAI4706
2005-09-25 13:47:00
SECRET
Consulate Dubai
Cable title:  

FORMER IRANIAN MP: REFORMERS TRYING TO REGROUP

Tags:  IR PINR PGOV PHUM PREL KNNP 
pdf how-to read a cable
P R 251347Z SEP 05
FM AMCONSUL DUBAI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5676
INFO IRAN COLLECTIVE
/DEA WORLDWIDE
AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI 
AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 
CIA WASHINGTON DC
NSC WASHINGTON DC
USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 
AMCONSUL DUBAI
S E C R E T DUBAI 004706 


E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/25/2015
TAGS: IR PINR PGOV PHUM PREL KNNP
SUBJECT: FORMER IRANIAN MP: REFORMERS TRYING TO REGROUP

CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L. Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

S E C R E T DUBAI 004706


E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/25/2015
TAGS: IR PINR PGOV PHUM PREL KNNP
SUBJECT: FORMER IRANIAN MP: REFORMERS TRYING TO REGROUP

CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L. Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (S) Summary: Iranian reform leader and former member of
parliament Fatemeh Haghighatjoo (please protect) believes that
international pressure on Iran, but not war, will produce
positive results on both the nuclear and the human rights
fronts. She admits the reform movement is in disarray and to
date has suffered from an inability to unify; she believes the
solution is more extensive media efforts. She supports former
presidential candidate Karroubi's efforts to open a private
television channel, which will reportedly follow a BBC/CNN
model. On the recent presidential election, she thinks a
combination of fraud and a genuine response to his
not-so-genuine promises of economic relief brought Ahmadinejad
to power. Now in office, the new government is pursuing
corruption cases against reformers. End summary.


2. (S) Fatemeh Haghighatjoo (please protect),an Iranian reform
leader and former member of parliament from Tehran, came to
ConGen Dubai September 21 to pick up an exchange visitor visa
(J) for herself and her family. She is going to MIT for a
fellowship in its Center for International Studies, where she
will focus on human rights issues. She gave PolEconChief the
following overview of her perspective on current Iranian affairs.

Recommendation for Foreign Governments: Pressure
-------------- --------------


3. (S) Haghighatjoo called the Iranian Government's recent
threats on the nuclear issue, such as pulling out of the NPT,
"lies". Saying "I know this government," she predicted that
serious international pressure, including from the United
Nations Security Council, would make it cave. However, she
repeatedly underscored that she did not believe war against Iran
was the solution.


4. (S) On the human rights front she also said she believed
outside pressure on Iran was effective. She thought foreign
statements spotlighting specific cases, such as Iranian
political prisoner Akbar Ganji, on the balance offer more help
than harm to the affected individuals. It should not be
forgotten, however, that there are lots of other political
prisoners in Iran, she noted.


Recommendation for Iranian Reformers: Organize
-------------- --


5. (S) Haghighatjoo repeated what we hear from all sources: that
the reform movement in Iran is in disarray, and that reformers
have not been able to form an alliance amongst themselves. She
cited a "lack of internal media support" as one of the main
reasons for this, indicating that without media coverage of
their point-of-view and issues, reformers could not succeed.
Unsurprisingly, she said the state media organs, as well as the
legal framework of Iran, work against reformers. She added that
the government knows that the Iranian people are generally
pro-American, so it deliberately slants press coverage against
the U.S. in an attempt to discredit it in the eyes of the
people. She believes such efforts are successful only with the
"uneducated class" in Iran.


6. (S) In the absence of a free domestic press, she said
reformers should work on media projects from outside Iran. She
praised Radio Farda and the BBC's Persian service, and mentioned
that a Dutch government project to open a FARSI language TV
channel was attracting quality Iranian journalists. On the other
hand, she criticized the Los Angeles-based FARSI language
commercial television channels as "lacking" in terms of
intelligent content.

Karroubi Hits the Airwaves
--------------


7. (S) Haghighatjoo confirmed reports in the press and from
other contacts that former presidential candidate and former
Majlis Speaker Mehdi Karroubi is planning to launch an private
Iranian television channel. She said she had recently seen
Karroubi and encouraged him to pursue this project. (Note: press
reports refer to Karroubi's station as Iran's first
privately-owned station, but indicate that the station will be
based outside the country, in Dubai -- which we have not been
able to confirm. Called 'Saba' Television, it will launch at the
end of Ramadan and be modeled after the BCC, CNN, al-Jazeera,
and al-Arabiya. Contacts say it is supposed to be more
"objective" in its news coverage than Iranian state TV. Karroubi
is also reportedly opening a newspaper.)

Election Assessment
--------------


8. (S) Haghighatjoo said Ahmadinejad won the presidency with a
combination of organized fraud and real votes by people
responding to his populist economic message. She claimed all
candidates, even conservatives Qalibaf and Larijani, complained
of cheating, but most then agreed to stay quiet. She is
personally convinced that Karroubi, not Ahmadinejad, got more
legitimate votes in the first round and should thus have made
the second round. (According to published results of the first
round of voting, Ahmadinejad came in second place with 19.48
percent of the vote, and Karroubi in third with 17.28 percent).


9. (S) Those who actually voted for Ahmadinejad were responding
to his campaign promises to improve their economic situation,
Haghighatjoo said. She added that Karroubi was the only other
candidate to speak directly on economic issues. Reformer
candidate Moin only spoke indirectly about the economic
hardships facing the people, claiming that with democracy, the
economy would improve. Despite Ahmadinejad's campaign rhetoric,
Haghighatjoo was dismissive of the chance of structural economic
change coming soon to Iran.


10. (S) Haghighatjoo also said that after eight years of
President Khatami, many wanted a president who came across as
strong. However, Haghighatjoo echoed a common view that
Ahmadinejad has no power himself, that the Supreme Leader
retains control. As to why Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps (IRGC) would want to move into the realm of political
power, she thought perhaps they were inspired by the political
role the military has played in Pakistan and Turkey.
Furthermore, the military was likely worried that if reformers
managed to retain the presidency, they could eventually succeed
at reducing the military's power.


11. (S) In her view, Supreme Leader Khamene'i decided
post-election that he no longer needs defeated presidential
candidate Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, although she doubts he will
actually run Rafsanjani out on corruption charges. She confirmed
that the government is, however, pursuing corruption cases
against some former officials, mostly reformers. Regarding her
own situation, the Iranian judiciary was threatening to bring
her up on charges related to speeches she had given calling for
the release of student activists.

Comment
--------------


12. (S) Comment: We note that Haghighatjoo is unlikely to have
any first-hand knowledge of the Iranian government's negotiating
positions on the nuclear issue or actual evidence of fraud in
the elections. Nonetheless, she is an astute observer of the new
government and an experienced reform leader. Now 37, she told us
she started her own political activities while still at
university. She impressed PolEconChief as a very capable and
charismatic activist who feels driven to work for real change in
Iran.


13. (S) Haghighatjoo is one of three noteworthy Iranian
reformers we know of issued J or H-1B visas within the past
month for academic work in the U.S., including noted blogger
Omid Memarian (going to UC Berkeley's School of Journalism) and
Akbar Atri (going to the Human Rights Center at Yale). She
mentioned that her husband is a journalist and plans to pursue a
master's degree in journalism while they are in the U.S.


DAVIS