SCENESETTER - VISIT OF ENERGY SECRETARY BODMAN TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DOHA 001823

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2015
TAGS: EPET ENRG ECON ETRD EINV PGOV QA ALJAZEERA
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER - VISIT OF ENERGY SECRETARY BODMAN TO
QATAR

Classified By: Ambassador Chase Untermeyer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Mr. Secretary, we are pleased to welcome you to Doha.
Your visit is an important one: you will be the first
cabinet-level U.S. official to meet with Qatari officials in
Doha this year. Your visit will demonstrate the importance we
place on the future of our energy relationship and will help
support U.S. businesses as they take advantage of the
enormous opportunities here.


2. (C) We have requested meetings with the Amir, Sheikh Hamad
bin Khalifa Al-Thani (addressed as "Your Highness"). Your
effective host will be His Excellency the Second Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry, Abdullah bin
Hamad al-Attiya, whom you know and with whom your staff met
with in June on their visit to the region. He will be your
host at Ras Laffan Industrial City and at the inauguration of
RasGas Train III and has arranged a dinner in your honor the
evening of your arrival. During your visit, you will also
meet with American business people in energy and related
sectors based in Doha and will visit CENTCOM and our troops
at Camp Al Sayliya. Your trip should provide you with a
well-rounded perspective of our growing relationship with
Qatar.

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Energy Sector
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3. (U) Qatar's economy is one of the fastest-growing in the
world, achieving a 20.5% increase in GDP in 2004. Per capita
income is nearing $35,000, exceeding that of the U.S. and
soon to be the highest in the world. Qatar's vast wealth has
resulted from the successful development of its natural gas
resources over the past 10 years with plans for even greater
expansion over the next decade. Under the leadership of
Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, the minister of Energy and
Industry, Qatar Petroleum is moving on all fronts to maximize
utilization of Qatar's natural resources to diversify the
economy and provide business and employment opportunities to
Qataris. Since 1999, there has been $60 billion in foreign
investment in Qatar's energy sector, about $40 billion of it
coming from U.S. companies. Qatar plans to invest $70
billion in the natural gas sector over the next seven years.


4. (U) The GOQ estimates Qatar's oil reserves are at 27
billion barrels. Qatar's daily average production is
currently estimated to be 806,000 barrels per day; at current
production rates, oil reserves are expected to last about 80
years. Qatar's goal is to increase overall production
capacity to over 1 million bpd by 2006. Occidental and
Anadarko are the two U.S. companies operating in this sector.
Qatar's 900 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves are
the basis for the country's current economic boom; the
resource is expected to last approximately 200 years at
existing production rates.

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Oil Production
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5. (U) Foreign oil operators in Qatar include Maersk Oil
(Denmark) in Al-Shaheen at 300,000 bpd; Occidental Petroleum
in Idd Al-Shargui North and South Domes with a combined
100,000 bpd (90,000 in the North Dome and 10,000 in the South
Dome); TotalFinaElf (France) in Al-Kahleej
with 30,000 bpd; and, Anadarko (USA) Al-Rayyan with 15,000
bpd. Qatar's oil exports target primarily the Asian market:
Japan 71.5%, Thailand 8%, South Korea 8%, Singapore 5.5%,
China 3.5% and other countries 3.5%.


6. (U) The U.S. independent Anadarko was awarded Block 4 in
August 2004. A subsequent controversial decision made by QP
awarded 150 miles of this block to Maersk Oil. QP is looking
to tender prospective exploration, production and sharing
agreements (EPSA) for four additional blocks: 1, 3, 7 and 14.
There are currently no onshore blocks being evaluated for
possible production. The last onshore block QP awarded was
Block 2 to ChevronTexaco in 1998. QP and ChevronTexaco signed
an EPSA for Block 2 which covered an area of approximately
10,900 kilometers. ChevronTexaco has conducted surveys and
exploration drilling. In 2001, EnCana (Canadian) and Svenska
(Swedish) acquired a stake in Block 2 from ChevronTexaco and
now the block is operated through a consortium.

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Natural Gas Production
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7. (U) The majority of Qatar's current development in the
energy sector is focused on its natural gas reserves.
Discovered in 1971, Qatar's North Field contains 15.3% of
world natural gas reserves, third behind
Russia and Iran. Estimated at 900 trillion cubic feet (tcf),
the North Field is the largest non-associated gas field in
the world. The North Field extends over an area of
approximately 6,000 square kilometers and is expected to
support planned production for over 200 years. QP manages the
natural gas sector through its two major joint ventures,
Qatargas and RasGas. The GOQ's primary goal is to supply 78
million tons of LNG annually to the international market by
2012 in order to meet about 30% of the global energy needs
for LNG. GOQ officials have said that QP would increase its
LNG output from 15.1 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 2003 to
20.2 mtpa by the end of 2004. In October 2004, Minister
al-Attiyah said that Qatar plans to invest $70 billion in the
natural gas sector over the next seven years. The production
facilities for
Qatargas, Rasgas and other natural gas related projects are
located at Ras Laffan Industrial City.

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Qatargas
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8. (U) Founded in 1984, Qatargas built the first LNG plant in
Qatar. Its first sales agreements were signed in 1992. The
main activities of Qatargas are divided into two projects
with separate shareholder groups: the upstream joint venture
(offshore production and the onshore receiving facilities)
and the downstream joint venture (onshore LNG plant).
ExxonMobil has a 10% stake in both ventures.

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Rasgas
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9. (U) Rasgas was established in 1993 as a $3.3 billion
venture owned by QP (63%),ExxonMobil (25%),Koras (5%),
Itochu Corporation (4%) and LNG Japan Corporation (3%).
Rasgas can produce and sell 10 mt of LNG per year and
additional quantities of related hydrocarbon products for at
least 25 years. Rasgas and Qatargas operate three LNG trains
each and are developing trains 4-7.

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Al-Khaleej Gas Pipeline Project
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10. (U) A Memorandum of Understanding was signed between QP,
ExxonMobil and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) in July
2000 to develop a project to transport natural gas from Qatar
to Kuwait. A protocol for gas Sale and Purchase Agreement
(SPA) between QP and KPC was signed on January 30, 2002
concurrently with the signature of a term sheet between QP
and ExxonMobil. In March 2003, the project was awarded to a
consortium composed of Japan's Chiyuda Corporation, Mitsui,
Italy's Snamprogetti and Al-Mana Group from Qatar. The
execution of this project awaits the approval of the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia to allow part of the pipeline to go through
Saudi territorial waters. The GOQ has actively sought USG
assistance with the Saudis to move this project forward. The
Saudis do not appear willing to budge on the matter, and now
Qatari gas resources have been reallocated to other projects.

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Ships Ahoy
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11. (U) Qatar is rapidly expanding its fleet of LNG tankers.
Qatar has 20 ships currently and has plans to expand to a
total of 75 though the QP subsidiary Qatar Gas Transport
Company. Qatargas and Rasgas have entered into charter
agreements with Japanese and Korean companies that will
source the construction of the vessels; Qatar Gas Transport
-- Nakilat in Arabic -- will take up to 30% of the various
projects. Nakilat has been one of the hottest stocks in the
new Doha Securities market; shares were sold to Qataris at
QR5 and quickly rose to QR60. It is capitalized at over $8
billion.



12. (SBU) Qatar is experiencing strong demand for its gas, to
the extent that current gas customers must compete for any
increase in shipments. Qatar is looking for the best price
while taking into consideration risk factors. Gas-to-liquids
(GTL) projects already signed will proceed; these projects
are with Shell, Exxon-Mobil, and Sasol. Projects that had
been under discussion have been put on hold. Ministry and QP
officials have said that this is because GTL has a higher
risk associated with it and a high investment price tag.
Rather than over-investing in this technology, Qatar plans to
market its gas as LNG and sell to reliable customers at a
good price with low risk.

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What's Happening to the Gas Reserves
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13. (SBU) Natural gas coming on-line in the near term is
fully allocated, including gas proposed for the pipeline to
Kuwait. Expansion of the Dolphin project (a pipeline to the
United Arab Emirates) is an example of how gas has been
re-allocated rather than assigned to new customers. Qatar
appears to be holding back on overly-rapid expansion of gas
extraction while it analyzes the reserves in the North Field
and how extraction is affecting the subsurface flow. QP has
capped current daily production at 25 million cubic feet.

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Trade Issues
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14. (U) Qatar signed a Trade and Investment Framework
agreement with the U.S. in March 2004 but has not yet
achieved a Free Trade Agreement of the sort the U.S. has with
Bahrain and soon will have with Oman and UAE. Achieving an
FTA will require Qatar to remove such trade obstacles as
mandatory majority Qatari ownership of most businesses, the
government telecom monopoly, restrictions to foreign
investment in the financial services sector, labor issues,
and transparency in government procurement.

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Political Reform
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15. (U) Qatar's own program of reform, launched by the Amir
after he assumed power in 1995, took a significant step
forward in June of this year when its first constitution
officially came into force. The constitution calls for a
two-thirds elected national legislature. These elections have
not been announced but are expected to take place sometime in
early 2007. Qatari women will have the right to vote and
will be encouraged by the government to run for office. In
municipal elections in 1999 and 2003, women here were the
first in the Gulf region to cast votes, and one woman was
elected to the council.

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Dramatic Changes in Education
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16. (U) Education reform, headed by the Amir's wife, Sheikha
Mozah, is a becoming a showcase. This reform includes a
sweeping revamp of Qatar's pre-university and higher
education system based on Rand Corporation recommendations.
Also as part of this effort, Qatar has brought to its
"Education City" branch campuses of Texas A&M University,
Virginia Commonwealth University, Carnegie-Mellon, and
Weill-Cornell Medical College, and Georgetown University.
These have been ground-breaking efforts that have been hailed
by many as models for other states in the region.

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Al-Jazeera
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17. (S/NF) Al-Jazeera remains the chief stumbling block to
what is otherwise robust cooperation, impacting an increasing
number of areas. In response to our repeated protests and
appeals, Al-Jazeera's management has reduced the air time
given to Al-Qaeda and kidnappers' videos and has made efforts
to address the inflammatory nature of its reporting from
Iraq. The channel has highlighted to us its coverage of
pro-democracy movements in Lebanon and Egypt as well as
broader coverage of Middle Eastern politics. Al-Jazeera
Managing Director told the Ambassador, "If the Americans want
to find a proper partner in its effort to get democracy and
reform, they won't find a better one than Al Jazeera."


18. (S/NF) In her meeting with the Qatari foreign minister in
September, Secretary Rice reflected the consensus of opinion
among USG agencies monitoring Al-Jazeera that the station has
shown some signs of improved broadcasting but still a threat
to U.S. forces in Iraq due to its anti-American editorial
bent.
UNTERMEYER