ELECTION APPROACHES; INTERIOR MINISTER DISCOURAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000298

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER;
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL DJ
SUBJECT: ELECTION APPROACHES; INTERIOR MINISTER DISCOURAGES
PROTESTS

Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita D. Ragsdale.
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Ambassador met March 27 with Minister of Interior,
Abdoulkader Doualeh Wais, at the Minister's request to
discuss election activities. Wais updated the Ambassador on
preparations for election day, stating all materials and
judicial texts were complete. Training for voting office
officials would be held that day for the city of Djibouti and
on the 29th for interior districts. Wais expressed interest
in meeting the U.S.-sponsored pre-election assessment team
comprised of representatives from the International
Republican Institute (IRI) and the International Foundation
for Electoral Systems (IFES). He stressed that he found it
very important that visiting observers receive all the
necessary information about the electoral process. He said he
hoped the U.S. would send observers for the day of the vote.
Wais said the International Organization of Francophone
Countries (IOFC) currently had a preliminary evaluation team
in Djibouti to decide whether to send observers. He also said
observers were expected from the European Union (EU),African
Union (AU) and the Arab League (AL). He added that the
Government of Djibouti intended to organize the election in a
legal, regulated and transparent manner.


2. (C) Wais explained to Ambassador the presidential campaign
process, during which incumbent President Guelleh and
representatives from the majority's coalition, Union for
Presidential Majority (UMP),would be conducting campaign
meetings throughout the country over the next two weeks.
While Wais was authorized to take part in the campaign, he
said he preferred to stick strictly to organization and
logistics. He noted that the new party, Union of Reform
Partisans (UPR),would also be supporting the government's
campaign. As for the opposition, he commented that Djiboutian
Party for Democracy (PDD) did not support the boycott, but
could not fund its own candidacy. There were two schools of
thought within the opposition regarding the boycott, he
continued: 1) that the opposition was not confident it could
get enough votes to ensure the 5 million DF (28,000 USD)
deposit required to be put forward for candidacy -- returned
only if the candidate received 5 percent or more of the total
vote -- would be returned, and therefore did not want to risk
losing that much money and 2) the opposition could get
sufficient financial and physical support and should
participate.


3. (C) Wais agreed that it was the right of the opposition,
or any individual, to participate or not. He advised
Ambassador that he saw only three legitimate positions a
party boycotting could advocate among the electorate: 1) "We
won't participate, so don't vote," 2) "We won't participate,
but give your support to X candidate," and 3) "Vote if you
like, don't if not." Wais said that any other position could
be construed as attempting to impede the political process.
He made clear that making trouble on election day or
interrupting the process would not be tolerated. He also said
that he was very clear on this point in his last two public
speeches and that the opposition knew the law.


4. (C) Comment: Post believes Wais's intent in asking for the
meeting was to ensure the U.S. understands the government's
position regarding the potential for protests by the
opposition. Persons protesting on election day could be
charged with disturbing the peace or unlawful demonstration.
Post cannot find specific laws that prohibit demonstrations
on election days, but it may be the tenor and method of
protest that will be the determining factors for the
government. The Minister of Interior's statements could well
be viewed by the opposition as lightly veiled threats aimed
at discouraging expressions of discontent on election day. It
is too early to tell what portion of the population will side
with the opposition and possibly demonstrate. However, it is
rumored that the Afar populations - opposition aligned or not
- are not supportive of Guelleh due to claims of unfulfilled
promises and will likely not turn up in large numbers at the
polls. End Comment.
RAGSDALE