TACTICAL MANEUVERS FOR UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000182

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV SCUL SOCI PHUM PINR DJ
SUBJECT: TACTICAL MANEUVERS FOR UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS

Classified By: Pol/Econ Erinn C. Reed for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In less than sixty days, April 8, Djibouti will hold
its third multi-party election since its independence in

1977. As presidential elections approach, a frenzy within the
ruling party is increasingly visible in its efforts to seize
every chance to win. Two months before election day, the
legal framework that governs the electoral process is not in
place. However, the ruling party's campaign to gain votes of
the unhappy is in full swing. The only parties not gearing up
for the elections are the three opposition parties that make
up the Union for Democratic Alternance (UAD) coalition. UAD
announced in a press statement February 13th, that it would
boycott the elections. The decision is based on the belief
that the process of the current elections is not transparent
and would not yield a fair election. The fourth opposition
party, the Djiboutian Party for Democracy (PDD) whose leader,
Mohamed Daoud Chehem, announced his candidacy in the fall of
2004, is apparently still participating in the elections. End
Summary.


2. (C) The primary mission of the Independent National
Electoral Commission (CENI) is to control the regularity of
the election process. It is also tasked to supervise the
establishment and revision of the electoral lists (done by
the Ministry of Interior) and monitor the distribution of
ballots. The electoral law stipulates the CENI must be
established at least three months prior to election day and
cease its activities fifteen days after the vote. The CENI is
composed of twenty members: three designated by the President
of the Republic, three by the President of the National
Assembly (taking into consideration political configuration
(read from different tribes)),three chosen from a pool of
magistrates with at least six years experience, three
representing civil society, and one designated by each
political party (eight in total). All political parties must
approve the composition of the CENI prior to its
establishment. This approval has been difficult to get in the
past and this year UAD has refused to participate in the
CENI. Election results pronounced by the commission are
contested regularly.


3. (C) Another legal procedure controlling the elections is
the Electoral Lists Control Commission (ELCC). This
commission, which is presided over by the Minister of
Interior, is composed of the six Commissars of the districts,
two elders from each district, one magistrate and one
representative from each political party. Being an internal
government commission, the opposition parties have
purportedly not always been called for meetings or to review
the electoral lists.


4. (C) The final method of control is the most important one,
the Constitutional Council (CC). The current CC members were
appointed in July 2001. CC members take an oath before the
President of the Republic. The CC controls the general
counting of the votes. It also examines all complaints
regarding election irregularities. If widespread
irregularities are observed, the CC can cancel the elections
and call for a new vote, after consulting the Supreme Court.
The CC gives the official proclamation of the election
results. The CC is suffering from a lack of resources,
without which many believe it cannot be truly independent.
The government is currently the sole fund source for the
Constitutional Council.


5. (C) Tactical maneuvers to gain votes are always something
that parties turn to when elections are approaching. Top
leaders of the Peoples' Rally for Progress (RPP),the party
of President Guelleh, have already begun consultations with
political and tribal personalities that are known to be out
of the circle of influence. In these maneuvers to curry favor
among the influential, tribal affiliation is especially
important. An example of the process a party might go through
to persuade a politically influential person would be first
via the tribe, then via their profession, and finally through
financial means. Persons a party deems necessary to have in
its corner are frequently offered promotions, tax breaks,
debt forgiveness and other gifts in return for their
allegiance. These offers are only made to those who have
significant weight in the political arena. At the moment,
rumors indicate that almost all the political opponents to
Guelleh have already passed through a similar procedure to
curry their favor.


6. (C) Reportedly, three months prior to the upcoming
elections, the head of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and
his deputy, both members of the ruling coalition were offered
new vehicles. This move was just before PSD held its congress
to declare its candidate. The move was designed to ensure
that individuals would stay with the party line. Djiboutian
nationals often observe these maneuvers of the ruling party
and describe it as normal.


7. (C) During the month of January, the Government's weekly
council meetings, normally held in the capital, were moved to
the large cities in the districts. These meetings were all
led by President Guelleh. Throughout his tours in the
districts for these meetings, Guelleh spoke with village
elders, tribal leaders, women and youth in order to get an
update of what the demands of citizens will be during the
campaign. Many speculate that Guelleh will satisfy the
immediate demands given during these trips by the start of
the elections.

8. (U) The opposition coalition, Union for Democratic
Alternance (UAD),is using the structure of the electoral
process as grounds to boycott the upcoming election. In its
press release announcing the decision to boycott, it cited
nine areas of the process that need reform before any
election can be held. The UAD calls for the following and
says without these actions they will not participate.
1-An overhaul of the electoral lists to reflect the reality
of the electoral populus.
2-The establishment of these lists by voting bureaus located
in the interior districts.
3-The publication of all electoral lists so they are
available to all political parties.
4-The establishment of a true National Independent Electoral
Commission (CENI),composed of an equal number of opposition
and government parties under the leadership of an independent
person accepted by the two sides.
5-The joint elaboration (Government/Opposition) of the
Special Statute for the Capital (a piece of legislation which
is supposed to accord a special status for the capital city
separate from that of the interior districts).
6-The modification of articles 27 and 54 of the electoral law
regarding the proclamation of the results and the submission
of the proces-verbal, following the counting of the votes.
For a real transparency of the elections, each party must
submit its own copy of the Proces-Verbale and the results
proclaimed by the CENI.
7-The abandonment, pure and simple, of the practice of the
old system of a single party designating the election
assessors. These assessors must represent the parties in
competition.
8-Equal and free access to the media for all political
parties.
9-The amendment and effective application of the 1992 law
regarding communication, which authorizes the liberal opening
of radio and television.


9. (U) The UAD follows this list with the statement that
without their participation, the elections should not be
held. UAD calls on the Djiboutian people to join them in
their boycott and not accept "this dictator responsible for
corruption, unemployment, poverty, sickness, immorality and
illicit enrichment of an elite circle." UAD calls for the
international community to "take their responsibilities and
put pressure in all forms on opposition to the dictator."

10 (C) Comment: The opposition parties' boycott of the
upcoming elections may prove to do more harm than good to
their cause. It is likely that this boycott could lead to a
further splinter of the opposition membership due to vote
currying by the ruling party. Post believes that the
opposition cannot hold together without a strong leader and a
strong platform that presents an actual alternative to the
government's plan of action. Since the death of Ahmed Dini in
August 2004, the opposition parties do not have a person
capable of bringing them together or facing Guelleh in an
election. Rumors suggest that the opposition coalition is
boycotting merely because it cannot find a common candidate
to put on the ballot. There are also rumors surrounding the
continued candidacy of PDD's leader, Mohamed Daoud Chehem,
that indicate that Chehem is being backed by the ruling party
to ensure that the presidential elections will not be a one
candidate race. There is also talk that a Djiboutian
businessman will run as an independent candidate. (Note: Post
cannot yet confirm the reliability of these rumors. End Note.)

RAGSDALE