BANGLADESH STRIKE WINDS DOWN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 000425

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BG
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH STRIKE WINDS DOWN

REF: A. DHAKA 0360


B. DHAKA 0361

Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, Reason(s): 1.5 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: The 60-hour strike called to protest the
January 27 grenade attack that killed former Awami League
finance minister Kibria is winding down amid reports of
scattered violence and injuries. AL MP's are boycotting
tonight's delivery of President Ahmed's annual address to
Parliament. The AL meets later today with its allies to
consider new strikes that might spill into the SAARC summit,
which the BDG affirms will open on schedule February 6.
Local press highlighted the suspicious transfer of two police
officers involved with the attack investigation. End Summary.

Three Days of Sporadic Clashes
--------------


2. (SBU) On January 27, an explosion in Habiganj, 250
kilometers northeast of Dhaka, killed five Awami League (AL)
members and wounded at least 70 others. Killed were MP and
former Finance Minister Shah A.M.S. Kibria, his nephew Shah
Manjurul Huda, and AL activists Saddique Ali, Abdur Rahim,
and Abul Hossain (ref a). The AL quickly declared a 60-hour
country-wide strike (hartal) that ends at 1800 local January

31.


3. (SBU) As the strike heads into its final hour, sporadic
clashes centered in Dhaka have left one person dead and at
least a 150 injured. There have been disruptions in
inter-city bus, rail and air traffic, and many shops,
schools, and businesses were closed in the major cities. In
Dhaka, seven vehicles were set on fire, and police used tear
gas and batons to stop a procession of AL MP's, reportedly
injuring two MP's and two press photographers in the process.
In Dhaka and Chittagong, police confined AL activists to
party offices in some areas and other locations to prevent
them from demonstrating. Police arrested 15 AL leaders in
Chittagong, but arrests in general appear to have been few.


4. (SBU) AL MP's are scheduled to march on Parliament at 1500
local.


5. (SBU) At approximately 1530 local, an explosion occurred
in the vicinity of the residence of S.Q. Chowdhury, the PMO's
Parliamentary Affairs Adviser and an arch-villain for many AL
activists. There are no reported injuries.

AL: The BNP/Jamaat Alliance Did It
--------------


6. (SBU) AL president Sheikh Hasina, other party leaders, and
Kibria's widow and son quickly blamed the grenade attack on
the BDG. "Shah AMS Kibria was killed as part of the
BNP/Jamaat-led government's cleansing operation against Awami
League to hang on to power. The government high-ups
instructed kill Kibria," Hasina declared at her January 28
press conference. On January 29, AL SYG Abdul Jalil
broadened the charge to include PM Zia and her son Tariq
Rahman. "Kibria's killing is not an isolated incident," he
noted. "but a sequel to the killings of Ivy Rahman (at the
August 21 attack) and Ahsanullah Master" (the AL MP
assassinated in Dhaka on May 7).


7. (C) Saber Hossain Chowdhury, Hasina's political secretary,
told us the Kibria hartal has been a "big improvement" in
terms of organization and popular response. Demonstrators,
he said, are on side streets as well as thoroughfares.
Chowdhury predicted a two-day break for remembrance services
February 1 and 2 before resuming with a one-day hartal on
February 3.


8. (SBU) AL leaders support a two or three day hartal from
February 5 that would spill into the formal start of the
SAARC summit on February 6. Pre-summit meetings with lower
officials begin February 1. The AL's leftist partners,
traditionally resistant to hartals because of their
unpopularity, are reportedly divided. A joint meeting of the
loose opposition partnership is expected to make a decision
later today.

BNP: AL is Exploiting Kibria's Death for Political Gain
-------------- --------------


9. (SBU) Mannan Bhuyian, Local Government Minister and BNP
SYG, alleged January 30 that the AL is bent on creating a
political crisis through false and irresponsible charges of
BDG complicity in Kibria's killing. He urged the AL to
desist from strikes and cooperate with the bombing
investigation. Regarding prior attacks, he said on January
28: "We could not arrest the culprits involved in bomb and
grenade attacks. It may be due to our weakness or the
administration." Citing this statement, some AL leaders have
called for the BDG's resignation.

Mrs. Kibria: Prompt Medical Care Might Have Saved Him
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) During the Ambassador's January 29 condolence call
on the Kibria family, Mrs. Kibria denied BNP SYG Bhuyian's
claim that the BDG had offered a helicopter to evacuate her
husband after the attack. When Kibria eventually arrived at
the Dhaka Combined Military Hospital, where as a former
minister he had a right to service, there was an additional
delay while staff attempted to locate doctors. In her view,
prompt medical care might have saved his life.

Other Developments
--------------


11. (SBU) Parliament Boycott: To protest the speaker's
refusal to postpone for one day President Ahmed's annual
address to Parliament, AL MP's are boycotting tonight's
session. According to the AL, parliamentary tradition
requires adjourning after an obituary message is read for a
sitting member.


12. (C) Investigator Removed: The police officer
investigating the January 27 attack and his supervisor have
been suspended, according to press reports. Some press
reports speculated the suspensions aim to obstruct an
effective investigation. A Dhaka police contact upset with
the suspension told us the investigator had made a good start
interviewing witnesses, but Home Minister of State Babar
personally ordered his replacement with a Dhaka-based
officer. "The Home Minister does not want the truth
known...and this is the same thing that happened after the
August 21 attack."


13. (C) Another Arges Grenade: On January 29, DGFI DG Major
General Rumy confirmed to DATT press reports that the grenade
on January 27 was an "Arges," the same type used in the
August 21 attack. Contrary to Kibria family claims, he said,
there was a BDG helicopter available in addition to 2 private
helicopters for charter which the Kibrias opted not to use.
According to Rumy, the 73-year-old Kibria was sick the day of
the attack but was pressured by AL leadership to attend the
rally for sake of his nephew, who was conducting the event.


14. (SBU) EU/UK Response: Local EU missions have been
prominent in registering their condemnation and concerns
about the attack. UK Foreign Office Minister of State for
South Asia Douglas Alexander wrote Foreign Minister Khan
after he was unable to reach him by phone. He wrote: "Your
government must now give a clear signal that acts of
political terrorism are not acceptable nor government
sponsored. This will be important to the people of
Bangladesh, and the global community who are deeply concerned
by the terrorist attacks in Bangladesh over the last year."


15. (SBU) Request for FBI, Foreign Help: The BDG has asked
for help from FBI, Interpol, and Scotland Yard in the January
27 attack. After the August 21 attack, the BDG also
requested foreign help, which it then constrained but
subsequently cited as proof of the attack's complexity and
hence a reason for the failure to solve the case. Mindful of
that experience, the British High Commission and we stated
that are taking the new request under advisement. Local
papers prominently reported Embassy press guidance on the FBI
request:

For FBI assistance to be useful, we believe it would be
important for the government to establish clear terms of
reference and to make other provisions to ensure that FBI
consultants are given full access to all relevant evidence
and witnesses. If such terms of reference had been
established prior to the involvement of foreign consultants
in the August 21 attack, their contribution to the
investigation might have been more meaningful. In both
cases, the August 21 and January 27 attacks, the potential
utility of the FBI assistance was greatly undermined when the
crime scene was not properly protected from contamination.

Comment
--------------

16. (C) With three fatal attacks on senior AL leaders in
eight months. it is getting increasingly hard to counter
Hasina's insistence that someone (in her view, the BDG) is
out to destroy her party. There is a discouragingly familiar
pattern after such attacks with each side's allegations and
counter-allegations, even including delayed medical treatment
for the wounded at Dhaka's most serviceable hospital. Four
days after January 27, no BDG official, to our knowledge, has
publicly blamed the AL for the attack, though Communications
Minister Huda made this charge at a January 29 diplomatic
reception. Several BDG officials, however, including Law
Minister Ahmed, have attributed the attack to people who seek
to portray Bangladesh as a failed state teetering on Islamist
revolution--a possible reference to India or the AL. After
August 21, it was PM Zia herself who later insinuated that
the AL was responsible for the attack.


17. (C) The BDG's approach to these incidents has been to
tough out the initial adverse reaction from home and abroad
as it follows a two-track strategy of promising "to leave no
stone unturned" in the investigation, which it has done now
with Ambassador and others, and making sure that the police,
or any foreign consultants, don't solve the case. One wild
card in the current mix is the upcoming SAARC summit, which
could embolden the AL to press its agenda more aggressively
and correspondingly make the BDG more sensitive to any acts
of "lawlessness."
THOMAS