ZIA CUTS SHORT CHINA TRIP TO RETURN TO RATTLED

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 004108

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA AND DS/IP AND DS/ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER CASC BG
SUBJECT: ZIA CUTS SHORT CHINA TRIP TO RETURN TO RATTLED
BANGLADESH

REF: A. DHAKA 4089

B. STATE 152460

Classified By: A/DCM D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 b, d.


1. (S) SUMMARY: PM Zia is returning early to Bangladesh to
cope with the aftermath of the 503 blasts that injured 191
and killed two. The BNP and the AL have blamed each other
for the blasts, and the Awami League-led opposition has
called protests for August 19 and a nationwide general strike
for August 20. Bangladeshis are rattled but life is almost
back to normal. According to NSI, there is "no doubt" that
JMB members "with external training" (read India) conducted
the blasts. We have urged the BDG and the Awami League to
exercise restraint. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) According to police and media reports, 503 blasts
rattled 63 of Bangladesh's 64 districts, injuring 191 and
killing two. As many as 18 unexploded devices were
recovered, including one in the 64th district, and as many as
85 persons have been arrested.


3. (SBU) On August 18, local media reported that two suspects
made confessions in Satkhira district court, with one saying
that he had received his bombs from Moniruzzaman, a member of
the Ahle Hadith movement. Moniruzzaman was reportedly
arrested and has also confessed.

Political Reaction
--------------


4. (SBU) PM Zia issued a statement from China, where she was
on a five-day official visit, that condemned the blasts as
heinous "acts of terrorism," extended her condolences to the
victims, and described the attackers as "enemies" of
Bangladesh bent on creating panic. She urged Bangladeshis to
remain calm.


5. (SBU) At an early evening rally in downtown Dhaka, BNP SYG
and Local Government Minister Mannan Bhuyian promised that
the blast perpetrators would be identified in four days. "We
must be cautious of the forces who want to come to power by
any means and who don't believe in the politics of
development and democracy," he said, in an apparent allusion
to the Awami League (AL). Zia intimate Health Minister
Khondaker Hussain added in the same vein: "Those who try to
tarnish the country's image have committed this heinous
crime. They want to want to create political issues as they
don't have a genuine issue against the government." Law
Minister Moudud Ahmed said: "This is nothing but an immature
political game."


6. (SBU) At a separate rally, Jamaat Islami put the blame
more squarely on the AL. Social Welfare Minister Ali Mujahid
said the opposition conducted the blasts out of jealousy that
Bangladesh is advancing economically, while JI Senior
Assistant Secretary M. Kamaaruzzaman said that those who had
failed to gain public support for their 14-point reform
proposals planned the blasts to destroy Bangladesh's
democracy.


7. (SBU) AL President Sheikh Hasina, meanwhile, alleged that
the BNP, PM son Tarek Rahman, and BDG security services
orchestrated the blasts because they realize they will lose
the next election. Only the BDG, she said, had the capacity
to organize blasts on a national scale. AL SYG Abdul Jalil
added: "Fundamentalist forces with direct patronization of
the BNP-Jamaat led ruling coalition committed the crimes to
destroy the country's democratic process and movement by the
secular forces."

Zia Returning to Bangladesh
--------------


8. (C) After being told earlier in the day by NSI DG General
Haider and other senior BDG officials that PM Zia would stick
to her five-day schedule in China, PMO Political Secretary
Haris Chowdhury told us late August 18 that Zia has decided
to return to Dhaka on August 19. Chowdhury said that the BDG
is "confused" about the blasts since Jamaat ul Mujahidin
(JMB),the banned group which signed leaflets found at the
blast scenes, is too small to conduct such a campaign on a
national scale. He asserted the BDG would make every effort
to bring the attackers to justice, remarking that it is clear
who benefits from the current situation (i.e., the Awami
League and/or India).

Protests
--------------


9. (SBU) The AL called demonstrations for August 19 and a
countrywide general strike (hartal) on August 20 to protest
BDG responsibility for the blasts. The Islamist umbrella
group IOJ, a BNP coalition partner, has also announced a
rally for August 19. Post's standard hartal policy of
confining USG personnel to the diplomatic enclave will be in
effect.

Business Concerns
--------------


10. (SBU) The Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters
Association expressed concern that the attacks would hurt
business since foreign buyers were already voicing safety
concerns about Bangladesh. One major garment exporter
(pro-AL) told us August 18 that several of his foreign buyers
have canceled trips to Dhaka. The Dhaka Stock Exchange fell
sharply after the blasts but recovered most of the lost
ground by the end of the day.

Urging Restraint/Offering Assistance
--------------


11. (S) On August 18, Charge telephoned NSI DG General Haider
to offer condolences and repeat the USG offer of assistance
to blast investigators (ref b). Regarding the latter, Haider
undertook to discuss it with relevant ministries and get back
to us. Asked if PM Zia were considering an early return from
China, he said that the BDG has "everything under control"
and that she would stick to her original schedule. Haider
confirmed that explosive devices were local manufactured with
identical components, and that two suspects have confessed in
court. JMB members with "external training" are responsible
"beyond a doubt" for the blasts, he said.


12. (C) Charge made the same points in separate telephone
conversations with Foreign Secretary Hemayetuddin, just
before he departed for a SAARC meeting in Islamabad, PMO
Parliamentary Affairs Advisor S.Q. Chowdhury, and Home
Minister of State Babar. Chowdhury objected to Indian High
Commissioner Veena Sikri's reported statement attributing the
blasts to Islamic fundamentalists, which he maintained was
unhelpful. He took the point on the need for rhetorical
restraint, but urged Charge to ask her diplomatic colleagues
to do the same.


13. (C) In response to Charge's appeal for restraint, Saber
Hussain Chowdhury, Hasina's political secretary, asserted
that at the BNP rally yesterday BDG ministers said that
Sheikh Hasina should be arrested and interrogated. He
complained that the BDG, as it did after the August 21 attack
on the AL leadership, has set a negative tone that will again
undermine any investigation. AL members, he continued, have
been attacked throughout the country for their alleged role
in the blasts. Under these circumstances, he said, how can
the AL trust the BDG or the intelligence services to bring
the attackers to justice?

Comment
--------------


14. (C) The reflexive slanging match between the BNP and the
AL is disappointing but familiar. However, unlike August 21,
the BDG this time is clearly concerned about the political
and security implications of the nationwide blasts, and we
should have a sense soon whether it is pursuing this
investigation with genuine vigor, or whether it will again
meander without achieving, or wanting, concrete results. The
AL, for its part, will try to exploit the blasts and the
BDG's handling of this major embarrassment to finally build
some political traction against the BNP. Despite doubts
about JMB's capabilities, it is emerging as the group poised
to take the blame for the blasts. It also appears that at
least some members of the loosely connected Ahlhe Hadith (Dr.
Galib)-Bangla Bhai-JMB combine will be tried and convicted
for the blasts.
CHAMMAS