BANGLADESH 2005 FLOOD CONDITION REPORT NO. 1

UNCLAS DHAKA 003247

SIPDIS

AIDAC

DCHA/OFDA FOR ROBERT THAYER
AID/W FOR CHRIS LA FARGUE, ANE/SAA (A) DESK OFFICER
STATE/W FOR SA/PB
DCHA/FFP FOR MATTHEW NIMS AND LAUREN LANDIS
ROME FOR FODAG
BANGKOK FOR TOM DOLAN
KATHMANDU FOR BILL BERGER, REBECCA SCHEURER

E.O. 12958
TAGS: EAID BG IT TH NP IN
SUBJECT: BANGLADESH 2005 FLOOD CONDITION REPORT NO. 1


1. Summary. July and August are peak monsoon months
in Bangladesh. The monsoon was moderately active
during the first week of July. Currently there is no
flooding in the country and the last five days have
passed without measurable rainfall. All the rivers in
the four river basins of Bangladesh were flowing below
their respective danger levels as of July 9, 2005. End
Summary.


2. Rainfall. According to the GOB Flood Forecasting
and Warning Center (FFWC) only light to moderate
localized rainfall was recorded during the past three
days over the Ganges, the Meghna, and the South Eastern
Hill basins. Rainfall was insignificant in the same
period in the Brahmaputra basin.


3. General Rivers Condition. Yesterday, the FFWC
water level monitoring stations' records, available
from 76 reporting stations (out of the total 86
stations),indicated 32 stations rising, 42 stations
falling and 2 stations remaining steady during the last
24 hours. The Brahmaputra-Jamuna started falling at
upstream points while the Ganges-Padma continued
further rise at all but Bagyakul (near the Munshiganj
district) points. The rivers in the Meghna basin
continued further rise at 7 points and started falling
in the remaining 8 points. The rivers in the South
Eastern Hill basin registered falling levels at all
points.


4. Rainfall/Flood Prediction. Rainfall predictions by
the Bangladesh Meteorological Department are normal for
the next two weeks of July and above normal during the
end of July and first half of August. A heavier
monsoon at the end of July is likely to cause moderate
flooding in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna and the Meghna
basins.


5. Mission Strategy. The Mission continues to closely
monitor the monsoon condition through its NGO partners
and the Disaster Emergency Response local consultative
sub-group, consisting of BDG, donors and implementing
partner representatives.

CHAMMAS