Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DHAKA2243
2005-05-11 02:16:00
SECRET
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

LOYALTY AND ACCESS TRUMP TITTLES IN INFLUENCING PM

Tags:  PGOV PREL BG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 002243 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BG
SUBJECT: LOYALTY AND ACCESS TRUMP TITTLES IN INFLUENCING PM

REF: 03 DHAKA 3720

Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 d.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DHAKA 002243

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL BG
SUBJECT: LOYALTY AND ACCESS TRUMP TITTLES IN INFLUENCING PM

REF: 03 DHAKA 3720

Classified By: P/E Counselor D.C. McCullough, reasons para 1.4 d.


1. (S) Summary and Introduction. Reftel described the BDG's
dysfunctional decision-making process and its control by a
handful of individuals. Not much has changed since 2003.
Loyalty, proximity, and length of service to PM Zia still
count for far more than title or institutional position, but
for Zia loyalty is a two-way street. Many insiders have a
close relationship with her son and heir apparent, Tariq
Rahman. The good news is the USG has productive
relationships with 12 of the 17 insiders and is working to
strengthen relationships with Falu, Syed Iskander, Khondakher
Hussain, Mir Nasiruddin, and Motiur Nizami. Moreover, none
of those five, except for perhaps Jamaat Islami leader
Nizami, could be described as fundamentally hostile to the
USG. The bad news is that very few of them have the ability
or the interest to pressure Zia's basic outlook on politics
or governance. End Summary and Introduction.

The Inner Circle
--------------


2. (S) Zia aside, these people have the ability to influence,
but not determine, the outcome of key issues:

A) PM Zia Khaleda Zia: Maligned by critics as insulated,
lazy, uneducated, and susceptible to the last word whispered
in her ear, she is still clearly the lady in charge. Her
pedigree as General Zia's widow, backed by an effective
public persona, protects her from BNP dissidents, who
believe the party -- and their political futures -- would
unravel without her presence at the top. Good political
instincts and loyal to her friends. Seems to enjoy the
ceremonial aspects of her job the most.

B) Tariq Rahman: Zia's notorious senior son and heir apparent
(septel). Takes credit for the BNP's successful 2001
electoral strategy, including its alliance with Jamaat
Islami. Reportedly filled/sold up to one-third of the 60
cabinet slots. His many critics say he is ruthless,
exceptionally corrupt, inexperienced in politics or business,
poorly educated, and unworldly. His admirers say he is
dynamic, smart, and represents a new generation of forward,
not historically backward, looking leaders. His official BNP
title of Senior Joint Secretary masks, ineffectively, his

unrivaled authority, save for his mother, in the party.
Operates a "shadow government" from his "Hahwa Bhaban" think
tank, particularly on clearing government appointments and
contracts. Sometimes brutal with his business rivals. In
the last year, he boosted his stature with BNP workers with a
successful nationwide "listening tour." Emerging as an
effective public speaker. Key questions: Will Tariq run for
parliament in the next election? (Probably). When would he
and his mother try to arrange his elevation to the top? To
what extent does his mother control him or concur with his
actions? (Reports are mixed.)

C) Haris Chowdhury: PM Zia's Political Secretary and a close
Tariq ally. His history as a BNP youth leader, rough
demeanor, and his reputed involvement in violent actions
against the opposition account for his thuggish reputation.
Capable of outlandish statements, but very accessible. While
MFA dithered, Chowdhury got a BDG statement issued welcoming
the Iraqi election.

D) Salahuddin Qader Chowdhury is officially Zia's Adviser for
Parliamentary and Energy Affairs, but he's an all-purpose
player. Scion of an important pro-Pakistan political family
accused of "war crimes" during the 1971 war of independence,
critics vilify him as an alleged rapist, arms smuggler, and
killer. Yet, Georgetown educated, he is articulate,
personable, and direct. May have the best understanding in
the PMO of how Americans think and act. His influence is
reflected by his ability to survive three major
embarrassments in 2004: his defeat for OIC SYG after an
effective Awami League diplomatic campaign against him; his
vulgar attack on Sheikh Hasina afterwards; and widespread
speculation that he was involved with the Chittagong arms
haul shipment. After the latter incident, Kamal Siddiqui and
then Foreign Secretary/now Ambassador to U.S. Shamsher
Chowdhury predicted his exit from the PMO.

E) Syed Iskander: The PM's brother and link to the military.
As a retired army major, he exerts great influence on
military procurement contracts and on senior military
appointments. Also an MP and tied by business to Tariq.

F) Home Minister of State Lutfuzzaman Babar: His dynamic
management has turned a major political liability for the BNP
-- law and order -- into a modest asset, in part by creating
and launching the Rapid Action Battalion, arguably Zia's most
popular initiative this term with a crime-weary population.
A known smuggler, an ally of Tariq, and reportedly
pro-JI/pro-Islamist. His influence will grow as his ministry
becomes more active in the run-up to the next general
election. His health is a big question mark. He regularly
goes Thailand for medical treatment and is expected to visit
American doctors this summer for unknown ailments.

G) Kamaluddin Siddiqui: The PM's Principal Secretary is loyal
to Zia but not her son, whom he views as uncouth and
dangerous. Sometimes shockingly candid in talking to us
about corruption and BNP politics. His influence stems from
his role as Zia's gatekeeper and his bureaucratic ability to
get things done. However, he does not have the sway he
enjoyed during Zia's first term, when he was a major policy
force. Repeatedly over-promises to us. Projects himself as
the USG's best friend in the PMO.

H) Finance Minister Saifur Rahman: Dominates economic,
development, and financial matters, and is influential on
some political issues. Broadly respected for his competence
and experience, he has cut Bangladesh's dependence on foreign
aid while increasing its forex. Remains wary of FDI. He
seems to do nothing to control his son, a BNP MP who is,
after Tariq, the most corrupt and abrupt of the leadership
offspring. An accountant, not a reformist visionary in the
Manmohan Singh model. Rahman apparently miscalculated or got
out elbowed by cabinet colleagues when they refused to extend
in office the reformist central bank governor. Prone to
outlandish public statements denying obvious Bangladesh
problems, especially in the context of foreign criticism.
Compared to his shortsighted cabinet colleagues, he can look
at a broad range of issues in terms of national interest.
Rahman is the one minister the Ambassador can use to get
important bilateral points to the top.

I) Health Minister Khondakher Musharraf Hussain: Another
beneficiary of Zia's loyalty based on their long association.
Energy minister in Zia's first administration, corrupt, and
involved with coal mining deals with the Chinese, he is a key
member of her kitchen cabinet. A geologist, and a former
teacher of Tariq Rahman's, before winning his first election
to Parliament in 1991, he has Zia's trust, perhaps more than
any other minister. Also reported to be exceptionally
corrupt. In 2002, he held up a USAID-financed condoms
shipment for months looking for a payoff.

Middle Circle
--------------


3. (S) The next group is important, especially in specific,
technical areas.

A) Reaz Rahman: The Foreign Policy Adviser is de facto
foreign minister. An old-time BNP stalwart, he is close to
Tariq and Babar. Capable, articulate, and direct. Charged
with making the SAARC summit in Dhaka a logistical and
political success.

C) Mosadek Ali "Falu": The PM's former private secretary, and
reputed intimate companion, he is no longer in the inner
circle since leaving the PMO to take up his seat in
parliament he won in the controversial "festival of fraud"
Dhaka 10 by-election in July 2004. Owns a television
channel, N-TV, available on cable in the U.S. and the UK, as
well as in Bangladesh.

D) NSI DG Brig Mohammed Haider: Became, in Tariq's orbit, a
key player soon after his appointment in January as the head
of the National Security Intelligence Service, Bangladesh's
civilian intelligence agency. Works on many political
matters, and deputed to deal with important ambassadors on,
for example, the "Tuesday Group's" proposed election
conference in November.

E) Civil Aviation State Minister Mir Nasiruddin: Enjoys the
PM's favor, in part because he draws on his contacts as a
former ambassador to Saudi Arabia to ensure Zia is well
treated when she goes to Mecca. She forced her son Tariq and
other reluctant BNP leaders like S.Q. Chowdhury to go to
Chittagong in a last-ditch, unsuccessful effort to boost his
challenge to the Awami League incumbent in the May 9 mayoral
election. Not a dynamic campaigner or manager but wily.
Kamal Siddiqui privately told us Nasirruddin is holding up
the sale to Bangladesh of Boeing 777 jets because he wants a
bribe.

F) Industries Minister Motiur Rahman Nizami: Also leader of
Jamaat Islami, Nizami has access and stature as the BNP's key
coalition partner, but he does not exert, and does not appear
to seek to exert, major influence on policy. His initial
opposition to the proposed USD 2.5 billion Tata investment,
because in part it was Indian, was circumvented by giving the
BDG lead to the dynamic chairman of the Board of Investment.
Nizami now supports the project after part of it was slotted
for his constituency. His goal is to broaden JI's appeal and
turn Bangladesh into a theocratic state in the next 25 years.
One son is a graduate of the University of Maine. A son in
Manchester reportedly channels local contributions via the
NGO Muslim Aid to Bangladeshi madrassahs.

Outer Circle
--------------


4. (S) These people have access but less influence than their
title or reputation might suggest:

A) Law Minister Moudud Ahmed: This politically opportunistic
lawyer can be counted on to promote the BDG line, from
defending extrajudicial police killings to its request for an
umpteeneth postponement in separating the judiciary from the
executive. In a cabinet short on technocrats, his role in
legal matters and drafting legislation is vital. Accessible
and often constructive in dealing with us. Was the key
player in ramming legislation through parliament last summer
on workers' rights in the EPZ's to end the threat of lost GSP
benefits for Bangladesh.

B) Local Government Minister/BNP Secretary General Mannan
Bhuyian: Marginalized by Tariq's ascendancy and viewed with
suspicion by the PMO since BNP dissident MPs last year mooted
his name as an alternative leader to Zia. He is the BNP's
moderate public face in dealing with the opposition and
condemning acts of political violence. A former pro-China
communist, he retains close ties to the PRC; his duties
include keeping the opposition communist and socialist
parties at bay.

C) Foreign Minister Morshed Khan: Owes his position largely
to his business wealth and generosity to BNP coffers. An
unrespected leader of an unrespected ministry, he's unfairly
blamed for Bangladesh's poor international image. Khan,
however, did deliver on our Article 98 agreement and getting
cabinet support for at least eight UN counter-terrorism
conventions. On occasion, he has described to us the BDG's
inner workings and plans.

D) Chief of Army Staff LTG Hassan Mashhud Chowdhury: No sign
of political ambition or independence, but any army chief in
Bangladesh remains a potential player under the right
circumstances. Due to retire in June but might be extended.
The Awami League claims he is pro-Islamist but he comes
across as just unobtrusively pious. Mashhud aims to
modernize the military to ensure that Bangladesh can maintain
its lucrative role in UN peacekeeping operations.
THOMAS