Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DHAKA1976
2005-04-27 09:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dhaka
Cable title:  

THE SHAKY SEISMIC OUTLOOK FOR BANGLADESH

Tags:  PGOV EAID BG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001976 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAID BG
SUBJECT: THE SHAKY SEISMIC OUTLOOK FOR BANGLADESH

REF: DHAKA 1731

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DHAKA 001976

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV EAID BG
SUBJECT: THE SHAKY SEISMIC OUTLOOK FOR BANGLADESH

REF: DHAKA 1731


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Experts forecast a devastating earthquake
in Bangladesh in the next ten years. Bangladesh is woefully
ill prepared, but the BDG, backed by some academics, is
slowly starting to address the associated challenges. END
SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Bangladeshi and foreign experts estimate that the
Himalayan Arc tectonic plate line will experience at least
seven major earthquakes, of a magnitude greater than 8.0 on
the Richter Scale, at different times and in different
locations along its length within the next ten years. The
intensity of any earthquake near Bangladesh is increased by
its relatively loose soil, which amplifies vibrations. When
vibrations are heavy enough, soil can liquefy and cause
buildings to sink or collapse. Soil liquefaction is being
blamed for the April 11 Savar factory collapse (reftel) which
officially claimed 61 lives. Dhaka, Chittagong and Sylhet
are at serious risk for soil liquefaction, with Chittagong
and Sylhet already experiencing regular landslides. Dhaka
has at least three smaller fault lines in addition to the
Himalayan Arc.


3. (SBU) Dhaka is particularly vulnerable due to its high
concentration of old, poorly maintained buildings and new,
shoddily constructed buildings, all of which sit
cheek-by-jowl in a haphazardly growing city of 13 million
inhabitants. Proximity to each other makes these buildings
more susceptible to vibrations originating elsewhere. The
Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief (MDMR) estimates
that 40% of Dhaka's buildings would collapse in a 6.0 Richter
Scale earthquake, and a large percentage of the remaining
buildings would be damaged, as would other key
infrastructure. In 2004, an old multi-story apartment
building in Old Dhaka partially collapsed due to vibrations
from a nearby construction site. Emergency crews were unable
to reach the building or its inhabitants because the street,
as is common in Old Dhaka, was too narrow to accommodate
emergency equipment. Many if not most buildings and urban
areas lack central shut-offs for gas and power supplies, so
fire is another major concern. The hydro-electric Kaptai
dam, Bangladesh's only dam, was built in the late 1950's and
is reportedly unable to withstand a major earthquake; if
ruptured, flooding would likely kill thousands. Studies by
the prestigious Bangladesh University of Engineering and

Technology (BUET) suggest that an 8.0 Intensity Scale
(different from the Richter Scale) earthquake could cost
Dhaka upwards of $600 million in damages and lost growth, a
huge sum for Bangladesh. Recovery periods would be months,
probably years, given the country's already woeful
infrastructure.


4. (SBU) Dhaka did not have a building code until 1993.
Enforcement in the planning and especially the construction
phases is lax and often manipulated by corruption. BUET
seismologist Dr. Mehedi Ansary, who is part of a BDG
committee updating the code, told us that the code now falls
short of minimal earthquake standards. The city agency
responsible for enforcing Dhaka's building code is Rajuk (a
Bangla acronym for "Capital Development Authority"). It is
notoriously corrupt, under-trained, and under-staffed,
according to businesspersons and other sources. Sixty
inspectors and supervisors are responsible for inspecting
300,000 buildings. One consequence of this ratio is that
inspectors normally inspect only design plans. If they do
inspect a structure, it is generally only to ensure that
property lines are intact. Ansary estimates that Rajuk needs
at least 300 inspectors with 50, fully-trained, supervisory
engineers to do the job right.


5. (SBU) To that end, BUET is now training each year 35
engineers in structural evaluation for seismic safety. Last
year's short course drew 50% of its participants from
government, including Rajuk and the Public Works Department
(PWD),which has the equivalent of Rajuk's mandate for
government structures. The PWD is already better trained and
equipped than Rajuk, and sent more senior engineers to the
training. Ansary reports that some NGOs with an
architectural focus have begun looking for ways to assist in
retrofitting old buildings in two vulnerable areas of Old
Dhaka. CARE-Bangladesh is also working to raise awareness
about earthquakes nationwide.

6 (SBU) After the 2001 earthquake in India, the Asian tsunami
that barely missed Bangladesh in December, and the Savar
factory collapse, there are indications that the BDG is
focusing more attention on seismic matters. On April 18,
Prime Minister Khaleda Zia declared in a speech that
Bangladesh needs more search and rescue equipment and more
earthquake resistant buildings. The last issue of the
BDG-published "Standing Orders on Disaster" does not contain
any reference to seismic or industrial disasters. Instead it
is oriented to the yearly floods and storms. However, a new
section is being drafted on seismic issues for the next
Standing Order, due out in six months. According to the
MDMR, one week after the tsunami, an inter-ministerial
disaster management coordinating committee was convened and
it was agreed that Bangladesh is totally unprepared for an
earthquake. Training modules are now reportedly being
developed to educate the populace on how to respond in an
earthquake. Educational programs on BDG TV are planned for
this month, and Public Service Announcements are in
development.


7. (SBU) At the Savar factory collapse, Dhaka's emergency
response services demonstrated they were ill-prepared for
even a single building collapse. They lacked even low-tech
items like headlamps, hand-held hydraulic clippers, gloves,
and bodybags. The EMT response is also poor. As fire
fighters and Army personnel are generally untrained in first
aid, local Boy Scout troop leaders stepped in to provide
emergency care to survivors until they could be moved to
hospitals. But the BDG is trying to build capability.
Dhaka's 12 fire stations recently used their own funds to
purchase $3.2 million worth of disaster response equipment.
At Savar, 48 Dhaka-based fire fighters who had recently
participated in USAID-sponsored building collapse response
training used the training-grade equipment and their newly
acquired knowledge. The Army and the fire department are the
primary responders to disasters. The Army, experienced in
rolling out effective flood relief packages, has shown it can
organize and provide relief for large numbers, but, even
though it assumed command at the Savar site, it lacks
specific seismic-related skills and equipment. A recent
draft of a Seismic Response Plan being developed by the Dhaka
city government divides the area into eight zones and
dictates responsibility within each zone to either the Army,
the fire department, the police, or the paramilitary
Bangladesh Rifles. Ansary also wants to open communication
lines with Indian engineers and first responders to see how
they coped with massive earthquake recovery operations.
CHAMMAS