It's Kikwete: the CCM Party Chooses a

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000888

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 5/5/15
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: It's Kikwete: the CCM Party Chooses a
Presidential Candidate

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 855 B) Dar es Salaam 832, C) Dar
es Salaam 732, D) Dar es Salaam 538 and previous


1. (C) Summary: By a lopsided vote, the ruling CCM
party chose the Foreign Minister Jakaye Mrisho Kikwete
as its candidate for President. While only the 1,800
delegates to the CCM party Congress actually voted in
the final round, the general public appears
enthusiastic about the party's choice, and about
Kikwete himself. Kikwete has no significant
opposition and is virtually guaranteed to win the
Presidency in the general elections of October, 2005.
Kikwete's election breaks with the tradition of
alternating the Presidency between mainlanders and
Zanzibaris. The Party nominated Vice President Shein,
who hails from Zanzibar, to stay on as Kikwete's
running mate. Charismatic and articulate, Kikwete is
thought to be particularly popular among young people,
but administration is not his strong suit. End
Summary.

. . . and Then There was One
--------------


2. (U) The top echelons of the CCM party converged on
the remote capital of Dodoma for a week of nominating
sessions. On May 2, the 36-member Central Committee
convened to choose five of the eleven declared
presidential candidates to proceed to the next round:
Kikwete, Prime Minister Sumaye, Nyerere Foundation
President Salim Salim, Planning and Privatization
Minister Kigoda, and Transportation Minister
Mwandosya. On the following day, the 200 members of
the National Executive Committee (NEC) selected three
finalists, eliminating Sumaye and Kigoda. Finally, on
May 4, an Extraordinary Congress of the CCM, nearly
1,800 members strong, elected Kikwete.


3. (U) Most CCM-watchers viewed Kikwete as the front
runner. Some factions in the party were nonetheless
set against a Kikwete presidency. Kikwete's high
"negatives" among the CCM leadership fueled
speculation that the Party Congress would deadlock and
eventually settle for a compromise candidate. (This
was the scenario in 1995, when Kikwete garnered the
most votes in the first round, but lost the Presidency
to "dark horse" Benjamin Mkapa.) In the 2005
nomination, Kikwete won easily on the first ballot.
The NEC gave him more votes than anybody else when
choosing the three finalists. Kikwete's majority in
the Party Congress was overwhelming: he received
1,072 votes to Salim's 476 and Mwandosya's 122.

Electoral Strategizing and Ticket Balancing
--------------


4. (C) The party's choice of Kikwete seems to be
popular with the general public. While many of the
Embassy's government contacts favored Salim, and other
also-rans, Kikwete swept a highly unscientific sample
of Embassy FSN staff, Tanzanian friends, and Party
Congress participants. Some interlocutors said noisy
cheers broke out among friends and neighbors who had
gathered around their televisions to hear the
nomination announcement. CCM dominance on the
mainland is so strong, that it is difficult to imagine
a scenario in which the party's nominee could lose the
general election on October 30. Kikwete is virtually
guaranteed to become Tanzania's fourth president since
independence.


5. (U) Kikwete's nomination broke with the informal
tradition of alternating the Presidency between
Mainland Christians and Zanzibari Muslims. Although
the tradition was never a constitutional requirement,
Zanzibari party stalwarts may be put out about losing
their "turn." The party mollified Zanzibar somewhat
by nominating Vice President Shein, who hails from
Zanzibar's Pemba Island, to be Kikwete's running mate.
Interestingly, the tradition of alternating Christian
with Muslim remains intact: Kikwete is a practicing
Muslim, although he is considered moderate in his
religious views.

Kikwete's Biographical Notes
--------------


6. (C) Kikwete represents the "young Turk" segment of
the CCM party. He is popular, politically adroit,
charismatic and very ambitious. In socially
conservative Tanzania, however, Kikwete's relative
youth - he is 55 - has worked against him. So has his
playboy reputation. As the party has increasingly
emphasized experience and education, Kikwete has a
built an impressive resume. Since 1995, Kikwete has
been Foreign Minister and also the MP for Chalinze
Constituency. Previous government positions include
Minister for Finance (1994-95),and Deputy Minister,
then Minister for Energy, Minerals and Water (1990-
94.) For the twenty years before his government
service, Kikwete served in various positions in the
CCM party, and in its predecessor party, TANU.


7. (U) Kikwete comes from the small town of Msogo, on
the coast near Bagamoyo. He has a BA in economics
from the University of Dar es Salaam.


8. (C) An able politician, Kikwete is a somewhat
unenthusiastic administrator. On Embassy row, his
Foreign Ministry has a reputation for being
understaffed and minimally responsive. Kikwete
himself is personable, and conveys the impression that
he will at least consider the views of foreign
diplomats. Kikwete has signaled that he might discuss
signing an Article 98 agreement with the US; the
current President Benjamin Mkapa has firmly closed the
door on any agreement for the remainder of his
Presidency. For years, observers of the Great Lakes
conflicts have considered Kikwete to be virulently
pro-Hutu. Rumors that he was facilitating arms
transfers to Burundian Hutu rebels persisted, but have
never been substantiated. Kikwete's marriage to a
cousin of former Rwandan President Juvenal Habyarimana
may have fueled these rumors, which are now fading as
the Burundi conflict winds down.


9. (u) Please see Embassy Dar es Salaam's SPRNet site
for a complete update and background on the Tanzanian
elections.

STILLMAN