Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DARESSALAAM832
2005-05-02 05:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

Tanzania Elections Update

Tags:  PGOV PHUM TZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000832 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/25/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: Tanzania Elections Update

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 801 B) Dar es Salaam 772, C)
Dar es Salaam 732, D) Dar es Salaam 711 and previous

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000832

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/25/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: Tanzania Elections Update

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 801 B) Dar es Salaam 772, C)
Dar es Salaam 732, D) Dar es Salaam 711 and previous


1. (C) Summary: The next week or so will see
several decisive developments in voter registration,
nomination of candidates and preparation for the
October elections in Tanzania and on Zanzibar. The
following is a round up of the most recent
developments. End Summary.

Voter Registration Draws to a Close on Zanzibar . .
.
-------------- --------------


2. (U) To compensate for the irregularities and
political interference that marred voter
registration in Zanzibar?s Urban West Region, the
Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) extended voter
registration beyond the original April 22 end date.
Voter registration continued through the April 26
National Day holiday. The ZEC has not exercised its
option to extend registration even further, so it
would seem that it is satisfied that every Zanzibari
who wanted to register has now had a chance to do
so. Some CCM partisans complained anonymously to
the press about the extension; they seemed
particularly incensed that the ZEC invited the
people who had been denied registration to file a
?form 2-D? and appeal the denial.

. . . and on the mainland
--------------


3. (U) Meanwhile, the National Electoral Commission
(NEC) was also finishing up with its much larger,
but less politically sensitive project to register
voters on the Tanzanian mainland. Reports from
Embassy FSNs registering to vote in Dar es Salaam
varied widely. Several FSNs said that registration
was quick and easy, and that they were required to
show little, if any, documentation to demonstrate
their eligibility. One FSN reported waiting times
lasting up to nine hours at a chaotic registration
center in Dar es Salaam. Most registration problems
on the mainland apparently stemmed from problems
with organization, in contrast to highly polarized
Zanzibar, where everything is political. The final
phase of both registration exercises began April 27,
when the NEC went to Zanzibar to register those
Tanzanian voters ?- perhaps a few thousand in all --
who are eligible to vote in national elections, but
who have not lived in the isles long enough to be
eligible to register with the ZEC.

The Diplomatic Group Plans no Meetings, for Now

-------------- ---


4. (C) Heads of mission from the Diplomatic Group
did not meet formally with political leaders on the
margin of National Day events to discuss their
support for the ZEC?s efforts to conduct voter
registration. (See reftel A.) The diplomats had
originally planned to deliver their eleven point
message to Home Affairs Minister Mapuri and to CCM
Secretary General Phillip Mangula. However, given

SIPDIS
the crowds of political leaders and diplomats
converging on Dodoma April 26, and the press of
internal CCM business, it was impractical to arrange
additional meetings on the side. (The Swedish
Ambassador managed to buttonhole Mangula for just
long enough to urge him to revive the Secretaries
General Committee.) Nobody in the Diplomatic Group
doubts that there will be other opportunities to
discuss respect for legal electoral procedures with
Tanzania?s political leaders.

Violence Continues on Zanzibar
--------------


5. (U) Sporadic violence persisted as the extended
registration period came to a close. The most
recent incidents targeted the ruling CCM party. The
body of Chande Rashid Saleh, a local CCM agent who
had monitored voter registration, was found on April
24, apparently several days after his murder.
Police suspected a political motive, but have made
no arrests. On April 25, an improvised explosive
devise damaged the CCM?s Mpendae branch office,
located in Urban West Region. There were no
injuries in the blast. Police made three arrests,
including a former member of the Tanzanian People?s
Defense Forces.


6. (C) These attacks have received relatively little
press coverage. While it is likely that they were
politically motivated, nobody has blamed the
opposition CUF, or anybody else, in print. A CCM MP
from Zanzibar, speaking privately to the Charge at
Union Day events, also downplayed the Mpendae
bombing. This reaction contrasted with the outcry
that followed the last outbreak of violence on
Zanzibar, a year ago. In March 2004, when a spate
of small explosions targeted Zanzibar government
officials, several CCM officials loudly accused the
CUF party and a fundamentalist Muslim NGO, ?Uamsho.?
In this most recent outbreak of political violence,
the CCM newspaper ?Uhuru? cautiously hinted at a CUF
motive; otherwise, the silence has been deafening.

The CUF Party Announces its Nominees
--------------


7. (U) An extraordinary Congress of the opposition
CUF party convened on April 25 and nominated the
party?s Secretary General Seif Sharif Hamad as its
candidate for President of Zanzibar, and Party
Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba as its candidate for the
President of the Union. These nominations came as
no surprise to anybody: both party leaders ran for
these offices in 1995, and again in 2000. Some
anonymous grumblers told the press that if Hamad and
Lipumba failed to win office for a third time, they
should stand aside and let younger leaders take over
the CUF.

The CCM Deliberates over its Nominee for Zanzibar .
.
-------------- --------------


8. (C) The race for nominations in the ruling CCM
party is much less predictable. Incumbent Zanzibar
President Amani Abeid Karume is facing a
surprisingly strong challenge in the party from Dr.
Mohamed Gharib Bilal. Dr. Bilal, a US trained
physicist and a political ally of former Zanzibar
president Salmin Amour, is reportedly showing
unexpected strength among some CCM stalwarts on
Zanzibar. A CCM Special Committee composed of some
of the party?s most prominent Zanzibari leaders,
including Salmin Amour, Vice President Shein, former
President Mwinyi, and Presidential candidate Salim
Salim convened April 27 to try to reach consensus on
the Zanzibar Presidential nomination. This eminent
group was unable to make a decision; neither,
according to several press reports, was it able to
persuade Dr. Bilal to stand aside for the sake of
CCM party unity. The CCM?s National Executive
Committee (the ?other NEC?) will take up the
question when it convenes on May 3.

. . .and over its Nominee for the Union Presidency
-------------- --------------


9. (C) These deliberations are just the warm-up for
the marathon of negotiation and balloting among the
top echelons of the CCM party, which will culminate
on the afternoon of May 4. At that time, the CCM
Party Congress is scheduled to announce which of the
eleven declared candidates will be the ruling
party?s nominee for the Union Presidency. CCM party
luminaries have already gathered in Dodoma for the
series of high level committee meetings to nominate
the president. First, the 36 member Central
Committee will convene on May 2 to select five
nominees; the 207 member National Executive
Committee will then narrow the choice of nominees
down to three. Finally, the 1,800 members of the
Party Congress, the party?s highest organ, will
convene May 4 to make the final choice. Given the
overwhelming dominance of the CCM party on the
mainland, there is little doubt that the candidate
who receives at least 50 percent of the vote in the
CCM Party Congress will become the next president of
Tanzania.

STILLMAN