Zanzibar Registration Crisis Averted for

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000801

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/25/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: Zanzibar Registration Crisis Averted for
Now


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 772, B) Dar es Salaam 732, C)
Dar es Salaam 711, D)Dar es Salaam 551


1. (C) Summary: The Zanzibar Electoral Commission
(ZEC) is taking concrete action to fix the problems
that have plagued voter registration, and Zanzibar's
recalcitrant political leaders have rather
grudgingly indicated they will allow the ZEC a free
hand to do so. From April 18-20, Diplomatic Heads
of Mission from donor countries called on Zanzibari
political leaders to transmit a common message
urging respect for the ZEC and for the legally
established registration procedures. After an April
21 meeting to exchange information on the weeks'
events, the Diplomatic Group agreed that, for now at
least, the credibility crisis for the Zanzibari
voters register has been averted. The Diplomats
nonetheless believed that Zanzibar would continue to
lurch from one crisis to the next until election
day. The Heads of Mission plan monthly visits to
Zanzibar, to call on political leaders and reiterate
the message. End Summary.

The Diplomatic Group: Seeking the Right Strategy
-------------- ---


2. (C) In their April 15 meeting at UNDP
headquarters (please see Reftel A),the Diplomatic
Group assessed worrisome trends in voter
registration, and agreed on a common message to be
delivered to influential Zanzibar political leaders.
The final version of the message contains eleven
points, which in their most succinct form can be
summarized as follows: urge all stakeholders to
support the ZEC and allow the ZEC to conduct
registration in accordance with the law; urge the
political parties to show restraint and commitment
to non-violence, and to revive inter-party dialogue.


3. (SBU) Over the next several days, small groups of
diplomats conducted a series of meeting with the
political leaders who are thought to be particularly
influential, for better or for worse, in Zanzibar's
registration process. On April 19, the High
Commissioners of Canada and the UK, together with
the UNDP Resident Representative, traveled to
Zanzibar to call on the Acting Minister for Good
Governance Shamhuna and the ZEC Elections Director
Khamis Ame. On April 20, the Nordic Ambassadors
delivered their message to Zanzibar President Amani
Abeid Karume, during a previously scheduled meeting
to follow up on Karume's recent trip to the region.
CUF party Secretary General (and beleaguered
candidate for the Zanzibar Presidency) Seif Sharif
Hamad met with the British and Canadian High
Commissioners and a group of Nordic Ambassadors. On
April 21, the Diplomatic Group reconvened at UNDP
headquarters to exchange information on the
meetings, to assess developments, and plan their
next steps.

CCM, CUF Leaders: Saying the Right Things
--------------


4. (C) The separate meetings with CCM party
hardliners Shamhuna and Karume went as well as could
be expected. Initially, Acting Minister of Good
Governance Shamhuna indulged in some venting against
the opposition CUF party. He also defended the
shehas, the local government administrators who have
been blatantly, and illegally, usurping ZEC
authority in the Registration Centers of Urban West
Region. However, Shamhuna said that he would brief
President Karume and Chief Minister Nahodha about
the eleven point message. He also said that he
would call in the District and Regional
Commissioners (the shehas' superiors in the
government's chain of command) so they could remind
the shehas that their residential lists must be open
to ZEC scrutiny and that the shehas had no authority
to deny people registration. Shamhuna agreed that
inter-party dialogue might help ease tensions on
Zanzibar. He said it would be helpful to revive the
Secretaries General Committee, consisting of CCM

SIPDIS
Secretary General Phillip Mangula and his CUF

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counterpart Seif Sharif Hamad. (A historical note:
the Secretaries General met several times before the
Pemba by-elections of May, 2003. Their joint
announcement on the voting rights of members of the
security forces did more than any other single event
to defuse tension and ensure the by-elections were
peaceful.)

5. (C) Zanzibar President Karume appeared well-
briefed on the problems with voter registration,
saying that he agreed with the recent report by the
election-observation NGO "TEMCO." Karume blamed
insubordinate shehas who did not understand
registration procedures, implying that any problems
originated far below his pay grade. Karume
refrained from criticizing the ZEC, and said that he
"couldn't agree more" about the need to respect the
ZEC's authority to conduct registration and
elections. He assured the Heads of Mission that the
Zanzibari government would not interfere with the
registration process. President Karume agreed that
inter-party dialogue could help defuse the current
tensions; he even suggested establishing a telephone
"hotline" between leaders of the ruling CCM party
and the opposition CUF.


6. (C) Seeking to be even-handed, some Heads of
Mission met with CUF Party Secretary General Seif
Sharif Hamad, to urge that political opposition also
respect the ZEC's role in coordinating voter
registration. The consensus in the Diplomatic Group
is that Hamad and the CUF party are far more "sinned
against than sinning," in the confrontations
accompanying voter registration. Nonetheless, in
the mass rally called April 17 to protest the denial
of Hamad's registration, Hamad had made unhelpful
remarks, saying that the CUF party mistrusted the
ZEC and would publish its own election results. The
diplomats reminded Hamad that only the ZEC had the
legal authority to announce the outcome of the
election, and that the opposition had the most to
gain from adhering to the legal procedures. Hamad
took these points. Regarding the call for inter-
party dialogue, Hamad said that for the last ten
months, he had sought a meeting with his CCM
counterpart, Secretary General Phillip Mangula, but
that the CCM appeared reluctant to revive the
Secretaries' General Committee.

SIPDIS

ZEC: Doing the Right Things
--------------


7. (C) On April 19, the visiting Heads of Mission
found that ZEC Elections Director Khamis Ame was
planning concrete, practical measures to set the
troubled registration process right. First, higher
levels of the ZEC were reviewing the denial of
Hamad's registration, which even many CCM supporters
considered to be politicized and unfair. (Days
later, the ZEC reversed the original decision and
allowed Hamad to register.) Khamis reported that
the ZEC had also withdrawn credentials from two
shehas who had consistently interfered with the
registration process, denying the shehas access to
the registration centers, and sending a warning to
other shehas who might overstep their authority.


8. (U) Most importantly, the ZEC was addressing the
problem of the thousands of individuals, most of
them presumably opposition supporters, who had been
arbitrarily denied registration or the right to
appeal. Khamis said the ZEC would extend
registration in Urban West Region at least through
April 26, and had the authority to extend
registration for as long as was necessary to ensure
all eligible Zanzibaris had the opportunity to
register. (The extension period includes a weekend
and the April 26 Union Day holiday. This may
facilitate registration for Zanzibaris with jobs,
who have found it difficult to spare up to nine
hours to wait in line at the registration centers.)
Finally, the ZEC intends to set up a special table
at each center for the sole purpose of distributing
form 2-D to people who have been denied registration
and assisting them to initiate their appeals.


9. (C) Khamis said that the ZEC would also start to
publish statistics detailing the numbers of
registrations, denials and objections in each
district. The diplomats received this information
enthusiastically, noting that the publication of
district-level data would help build the credibility
of the register among the political parties and the
general public. (As an example, the British High
Commissioner later observed that the objection
process is now complete in the two regions of Pemba
Island, which had its share of registration
controversies. The ZEC demonstrated competence and
professionalism on Pemba, where 157,000 voters
registered and objections numbered a respectable,
and manageable, 2,442.) The Heads of Mission urged
ZEC officials to meet with party leaders and other
stakeholders, and to publicize the ZEC's voter
registration efforts more widely. Khamis, who
became the scapegoat for the troubles in Zanzibar's
previous elections, nonetheless hesitated to raise
the ZEC's profile further at this time.

The Diplomatic Group: Keeping Everything on Track
-------------- --------------


10. (C) British High Commissioner voiced the
consensus when he told the Diplomatic Group that
Zanzibar's voter registration appeared to be back on
the right track, for now. Pocock said that he
nonetheless thought it likely that Zanzibar would
continue to lurch from one crisis to the next until
Election Day in October. In a suggestion that was
generally well-received, Pocock suggested that Heads
of Mission from the Diplomatic Group plan to travel
to Zanzibar at least monthly to meet with political
leaders. He thought diplomatic group should
continue to reiterate the eleven points, until
circumstances dictated that the message be revised
and updated. The Diplomatic Group agreed that every
Heads of Mission visit to Zanzibar should include a
call on the ZEC, both to obtain regular updates on
the elections preparations and to demonstrate
diplomatic support for the Commission.


11. (C) The next round of calls for the Heads of
Mission is set for April 26, on the margins of Union
Day events in Dodoma. Charge d'Affaires Stillman
will join the High Commissioners of the UK and
Canada for meetings with Minister of Home Affairs
Omar Mapuri and CCM Secretary General Phillip
Mangula. The Diplomatic Group hopes to persuade
these national level leaders of the CCM party to be
part of the solution to the problem of restoring
credibility to the Zanzibar voter register. Mapuri,
in addition to his Home Affairs portfolio, is a
Zanzibari who helped negotiate and implement the
bipartisan Muafaka Accord on behalf of the ruling
CCM party. When conflict marred voter registration
on Pemba Island last December, Mapuri helped to
restore calm with a public call for the militias to
respect the authority of the police and the ZEC.
Mapuri said all the right things in public, even
though he reportedly faced harsh criticism in
private from CCM hardliners. CCM Secretary General
Phillip Managula is an old-fashioned CCM loyalist,
and the other half of the Secretaries General
Committee which was so helpful in ensuring the 2003
Pemba by-elections were free, fair and peaceful.


12. (C) Comment: These latest discussions with
Elections Director Khamis Ame demonstrate once again
that the ZEC has technical expertise and a real
commitment to conducting a credible election.
Clearly, Khamis knows what to do to correct the
distortions that threaten the credibility of the
voters register. The question that still remains is
whether the ZEC's many working-level officials can
actually defy the shehas, and implement these
measures in the 82 registration centers of Urban
West Region. It also remains to be seen if
political leaders will help the ZEC to rebuild
public confidence in the voter register. In
particular, the ZEC must effectively reach out to
those citizens - likely numbering at least several
thousand -- who have been denied registration and
the due process to file an appeal. The diplomatic
Group must continue to monitor the situation on the
ground, and continue to address the new problems and
controversies that will inevitably develop. End
comment.

STILLMAN