Zanzibar's Voter Registration Crisis: the

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000772

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/20/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TZ
SUBJECT: Zanzibar's Voter Registration Crisis: the
Diplomatic Group Responds

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 732, B) Dar es Salaam 711, C)
Dar es Salaam 551, D)Dar es Salaam 538


1. (C) Summary: As voter registration on Zanzibar
enters its final week, evidence continues to mount
that government interference with the registration
process is blatant, deliberate and sufficiently
widespread to affect electoral outcomes. Opposition
supporters who have been denied registration include
the CUF party candidate for President of Zanzibar,
Seif Sharif Hamad. On April 15, a group of donor
country diplomats who have assisted Zanzibar's voter
registration project met to discuss next steps to
salvage the integrity of the voters register. The
diplomatic group drew up a list of talking points that
emphasized support for the Zanzibar Electoral
Commission (ZEC),and respect for the legally
established procedures for voter registration. During
the week of April 18-22, teams of diplomats from the
group will deliver this message to a cross section of
top political leaders, urging them to allow the ZEC to
proceed with voter registration without interference.
End Summary.

Widespread Disregard for Registration Procedures
-------------- ---


2. (U) On April 15, the domestic election observation
NGO "TEMCO," circulated its most recent report on
Zanzibar's voter registration, confirming persistent,
widespread disregard for the legal voter registration
procedures in Zanzibar's populous Urban West Region.
TEMCO's report is consistent with the problems that
diplomatic observers, including emboff, had seen the
previous week in Urban West. (Please see Reftel B for
a detailed discussion.) By law, the highest ranking
ZEC official at a center determines who is eligible to
register. Local government administrators, called
"shehas" may advise the ZEC officials, but the sheha
have no legal authority to refuse registration to
anybody.


3. (U) TEMCO noted that in many centers, however, the
sheha alone decided who was eligible to register, in
contravention of the law. TEMCO and the diplomatic
observers saw many people turned away from the centers
without having the opportunity even to speak with an
official from the ZEC, or to file a "form 2-D"
documenting the refusal. Without this form, no
individual can appeal the refusal to higher levels of
the ZEC or to the courts. This massive disregard for
legal registration procedures is occurring against a
background of increasing violence and intimidation.
In several incidents, armed thugs have beaten people
who were waiting outside registration centers. Arson
attacks on homes and factories have proliferated since
registration began in Urban West.

Disenfranchisement of the Opposition
--------------


4. (U) TEMCO coordinator Rwekaza Mukandala and many
other observers conclude that the shehas are acting on
instructions from their superiors in the Zanzibar
government to limit registration by members of the
opposition CUF party. On April 14, the CUF Secretary
General and candidate for the Presidency of Zanzibar,
Seif Sharif Hamad was himself refused registration, on
the grounds that he had not resided continuously on
Zanzibar for the requisite 36 months. (Hamad
maintains a house on Zanzibar, but he also spends
considerable time in Dar or traveling overseas, as do
most political leaders.) CUF held a mass rally in Dar
es Salaam April 16, to protest problems with
registration. Hamad told the rally that the CUF had
lost all confidence in the ZEC's ability to conduct
free and fair elections next October, and that CUF
agents would tabulate election results independently
and announce them without waiting for the ZEC. The
CUF party claims that 32,000 of its supporters have
been denied registration in Urban West. While we
cannot confirm this figure independently, TEMCO's
observations suggest that it might not be far from the
mark.

The Diplomatic Group's Strategy
--------------


5. (C) On April 15, UNDP Resident Representative John
Hendra convened Heads of Diplomatic Missions
representing the donors that are supporting the
Zanzibari electoral process. Charge Chris Stillman
represented the US Embassy; the UK, Netherlands,
Canada, Norway, Sweden, Germany and the EU also sent
representatives. The diplomats' consensus was that
the credibility of Zanzibar's Permanent Voters
Registry, and ultimately the election, was in
jeopardy. The diplomats thought that the ZEC was
competent and committed to conducting free and fair
elections. Given a free hand, and perhaps a bit more
time to make up for lost ground, the ZEC could yet
salvage the integrity of the voters register. The ZEC
could succeed in doing so, however, only if top
leaders in the Zanzibar government could be persuaded
to halt what looks very much like a concerted campaign
to manipulate voter registration.


6. (C) Following the pattern established during
previous difficulties with voter registration, the
diplomats agreed on common message, then decided which
political leaders needed to hear it. The diplomat's
eleven-point message can be summarized as follows: we
support the ZEC in its endeavor to establish a
credible voter register, and we urge all other parties
to refrain from interfering with the ZEC. The message
urges all stakeholders to show restraint and to
discourage violence.


7. (C) On April 19, the High Commissioners from the UK
and Canada planned a series of meetings on Zanzibar,
to be followed by a previously planned meeting between
the Nordic Ambassadors and Zanzibar President Karume
on April 20. During these meetings, the diplomats
will approach Zanzibari government leaders who are
part of the problem: Karume, Chief Minister Nahodha,
Acting Minister for Good Governance Shamhuna, and CCM
Treasurer (and Karume brother in law) Mansoor Himid.
They will also approach political leaders who are
potentially part of the solution, including Tanzanian
Home Affairs Minister Mapuri (a Zanzibari who helped
negotiate the original Muafaka Accord) the Secretaries
General of both the CCM and the CUF parties, and ZEC
Chairman Masauni. On April 21, the diplomatic group
will re-convene to assess the situation, and decide if
the timing is right to take their concerns to the
highest level, President Mkapa. After May 4, when the
ruling CCM party announces its candidate for the
Presidency, the Diplomatic Group may also seek a
meeting with the nominee to emphasize the importance
of credible elections on Zanzibar.


8. (C) For the week of April 18-22, while voter
registration continues on Zanzibar and while CCM
leaders focus on their internal campaign, the
diplomats' message will be urgent, but private. For
now, the Diplomatic Group will refrain from press
releases, cancellation of assistance programs or any
other threatened sanctions that could provoke a
backlash or strengthen CCM hardliners. The consensus
among the Diplomatic Group was that the ZEC would have
a better chance to do its work to salvage the register
if the CCM hardliners were given room to back down
without a loss of face.


9. (C) During their discussions with Tanzanian
political leaders, the Diplomatic Group will draw on
the following eleven points:

-- As supporters of the Muafaka, we come as "Friends
of Zanzibar" and indeed as Friends of Tanzania.

-- The Diplomatic Group is extremely concerned about
aspects of the ongoing registration process,
especially actions by Shehas that appear to have
denied large numbers of people the opportunity to
register, and about indications of multiple
registration in some areas.

-- A credible voters register is critical to the
conduct of a peaceful and credible election on
Zanzibar.

-- Peaceful and credible elections are fundamental to
maintaining stability in Zanzibar.

-- If the elections are not peaceful and credible,
there could be serious consequences affecting
Zanzibar's economy, including tourism.

-- The Diplomatic Group is concerned that the ZEC be
enabled to uphold the credibility of the registration
process and to ensure the integrity of the Permanent
Voters Register.

-- The Diplomatic Group is seriously concerned about
the increase in elections-related violence, and by the
provocative actions by all sides, and strongly urges
all sides to act and speak with restraint.

-- The Diplomatic Group encourages dialogue among all
political parties, and urges that the Secretary
Generals' Committee be re-activated as a forum for
inter-party dialogue.

-- While the Shehas have a role in the electoral
process, it is of utmost importance that they fulfill
their stipulated roles and responsibilities in strict
accordance with the electoral laws.

-- The ZEC has considerable technical competence and
an impressive record of accomplishments to date. The
ZEC must be allowed to undertake its responsibilities
in an impartial manner, and to do its job free of
political interference and intimidation.

-- Every opportunity must be found to ensure that all
eligible voters who wish to register are able to do
so.

STILLMAN