Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DARESSALAAM732
2005-04-13 13:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

CCM Party Counts Down to Nomination Day

Tags:  PGOV TZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000732 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/13/15
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: CCM Party Counts Down to Nomination Day


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 711, B) Dar es Salaam 538, C)
Dar es Salaam 217, D)Dar es Salaam 57

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000732

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 4/13/15
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: CCM Party Counts Down to Nomination Day


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 711, B) Dar es Salaam 538, C)
Dar es Salaam 217, D)Dar es Salaam 57


1. (C) Summary: Top leaders in the government and
the ruling CCM party are converging on the capital
Dodoma for the events that will determine Tanzania?s
next President. Following the regular parliamentary
session of April 12-22, the CCM Party Congress will
convene to select the party?s nominees for the
October general elections. Because of the CCM?s
overwhelming dominance on the Tanzanian mainland,
the CCM candidate for Union President and most of
the CCM candidates for the national parliament are
sure to prevail. During the run-up to the
announcement of the CCM?s nominees on May 4, the
internal party campaigning will be intense, if
mostly conducted out of public view. In the
interim, we do not expect the Government of Tanzania
to get much else done. Unfortunately, while the CCM
is fully engaged in this intense, intra-party deal-
making, top party leaders might be reluctant to rein
in the CCM?s Zanzibar contingent and prevent the
Zanzibari government from undermining voter
registration before it concludes April 22. End
Summary.


2. (U) There is little doubt in anybody?s mind that
CCM nominee who will be announced on May 4 will
become Tanzania?s next President. Originally
Tanzania?s only legal political party, the CCM still
commands formidable party machinery and dominates
the Tanzanian mainland. The CCM is also likely to
retain its overwhelming majority in the National
Parliament, where it currently holds 256 out of 295
seats, after the October elections. A competitive
electoral contest is expected only on semi-
autonomous Zanzibar and in a handful of mostly urban
districts on the mainland.


3. (U) For now, all of the action ? and the top
government and party officials ? are shifting to the
isolated capital city Dodoma. The April 12-22
session of Parliament is now underway, and will vote
on legislation on matters ranging from rural
electrification to the auditing of cooperatives.
During this election year, however, the main event
will begin the last week of April, when the top
organs of the CCM select the party?s nominees for
electoral office.


4. (U) The party will tackle one of its hardest
tasks first. On April 27, a special committee of

the CCM?s National Executive Committee (NEC) will
meet on Zanzibar to chose the party?s nominee for
the Zanzibar President. (Please note: the CCM?s
?NEC,? a party organ, is not to be confused with the
National Electoral Commission, which is the
government office that organizes and conducts
national elections.) Incumbent President Karume is
running for a second term, but to the surprise and
consternation of some in the CCM, Dr. Mohammed
Gharib Bilal has challenged him for the party
nomination. Dr. Bilal represents the faction of
former Zanzibar President Salmin Amour, who lost the
party nomination to Karume five years ago. Opinions
are mixed as to whether the Amour/Bilal faction has
sufficient strength within the CCM to stage a
comeback, but the deep split within the Zanzibar
branch of the CCM can only weaken the ruling party
as it prepares to face the opposition CUF in the
October elections.


5. (U) The CCM?s NEC will return to Dodoma for a
planning session on April 29-30. The Central
Committee convenes May 2 to scrutinize the CCM?s
eleven candidates for the Union Presidency, and will
winnow their numbers down to five. On May 3, the
NEC reconvenes to vote on the top three candidates.
The big event is set for May 4, when the 1,800
member strong national party Congress, technically
the CCM party?s highest organ, convenes to vote for
the nominee. Since the regular party Congress
convenes only once every five years, the party?s day
to day administration, and the real power, resides
with the 200 members of the CCM?s NEC, and
especially with those NEC members who are also on
the Central Committee. Most of the 36 members of
the Central Committee also hold the top positions in
the national government. Five of the CCM candidates
for President are themselves Central Committee
members.


6. (SBU) The real decisions will likely be made
within the very top echelons of the CCM party: a
small, tight circle of individuals who know each
other very well, and who have been alternately
forming alliances and betraying each other for
years. Information about the decision-making and
its outcome is under extremely close hold, although
this doesn?t stop everybody else in the political
parties, in the press and in the diplomatic
community from speculating wildly about the identity
of the nominee who will be announced on May 4.


7. (SBU) Among the CCM?s eleven declared candidates
for President, Foreign Minister Jakaye Kikwete is
generally considered the man to beat. Other front
runners include the venerable CCM Party Vice
Chairman John Malecela, representing the party?s Old
Guard, former OAU Secretary General Salim Salim, and
possibly the embattled Prime Minister Frederick
Sumaye, if he can overcome the suspicions that he is
corrupt. The remaining seven candidates may hope to
emerge as a compromise choice (following the pattern
established in Mkapa?s 1995 nomination). Some may
be running to enhance their visibility within the
party, to gratify their egos, or to position
themselves for ministerial portfolios in next
administration. Occasionally, the rumor mill has
cited Vice President Mohammed Shein as a hot
prospect, but Shein has not yet filed his candidacy;
at this late date, he is probably out of the
running. (For a complete readout on the candidates
and their prospects, please see Reftel B.)


8. (C) For the next few weeks, at least, we expect
the government to be somewhat distracted. Foreign
Ministry officials admitted as much during a recent
demarche; they reported that Foreign Minister
Kikwete had turned much of the daily administration
of foreign affairs over to his deputy.


9. (C) The diplomatic community is increasingly
concerned that it will be difficult to focus high-
level government attention on Zanzibar, where the
CCM government faces a strong electoral challenge
and where irregularities in voter registration have
recently turned particularly ugly. Even if
Zanzibar?s embattled President Karume succeeds in
obtaining the CCM party nomination, he stands a good
chance of losing the presidency to the opposition
CUF party in the general elections. Developments in
recent weeks suggest that that the Isles contingent
of CCM is running scared, and may not be inclined to
allow free and fair elections on Zanzibar. From
April 2-22, the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC)
is registering voters in the populous Urban West
Region. Since April 2, however, evidence has been
mounting that local government headmen, called
?shehas,? have received instructions to illegally
bar CUF supporters from registering. (Please see
reftel A for a full update.) Reportedly, the shehas
are taking their instructions from top officials in
the Zanzibar Government, such as Chief Minister
Nahodha, or President Karume himself. The
diplomatic community plans to approach leaders in
both the National and the Zanzibar governments to
urge them to rein in the shehas and allow the ZEC to
conduct credible registration.


9. (C) Comment: In general, major policy decisions
and initiatives involving the Tanzanian government
are best put on hold until after the CCM?s
nomination fever subsides on May 4, and after we
have a clearer idea about who our long-term
government interlocutors will be. The serious
irregularities in the Zanzibar voter registration
cannot wait, however. For better or worse,
registration on Zanzibar will be completed April 22.
The voters register, and ultimately the Zanzibar
elections, will not be fair and credible, unless key
leaders at the very top levels of the CCM party
insist that the ZEC be allowed to register voters in
accordance with legally established procedures. We
believe that President Mkapa wants to leave a legacy
of a peaceful, democratic transition, although he
may not particularly want to be remembered as the
politician who ?lost? Zanzibar for the CCM. Mkapa?s
dilemma may find echoes among other influential
members of the Central Committee. We can assume
that considerable horse-trading is occurring behind
the scenes in the CCM, as the CCM?s presidential
hopefuls vie for allies and support. We can only
hope that the credibility of the Zanzibari election
is not one of the items to be traded away in the
coming days. End Comment.

STILLMAN