DUTCH ENVOY RACKE SAYS PALIPEHUTU-FNL REBEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 000701

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/C, AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 4/6/15
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM KPKO TZ BY NL
SUBJECT: DUTCH ENVOY RACKE SAYS PALIPEHUTU-FNL REBEL
TALKS WITH GOT PROCEEDING WELL

REF: BUJUMBURA 323 AND PREVIOUS

Classified by Charge d?Affaires Michael S. Owen for
reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Dutch Burundi Envoy Fred Racke told
Charge that the current talks between the Government of
Tanzania and FNL-Palipehutu rebels in Dar es Salaam are
proceeding well so far, and the GOT is becoming
cautiously optimistic. President Mkapa has insisted that
all talks must be within the framework of existing peace
mechanisms and that FNL leader Agathon Rwasa must
ultimately participate personally. If progress is made
over the next two weeks, then Mkapa plans to consult with
South African VP Zuma and other regional leaders on how
to proceed. Racke said the USG-led tripartite mechanism
is a significant factor in pushing the FNL toward
negotiations. End Summary.


2. (U) Charge met on April 7 with Fred Racke, Dutch
Special Envoy for Burundi, for a readout on the FNL-
Palipehutu talks currently underway in Dar es Salaam
(ref). The Dutch, French, and UK Ambassadors also
attended the hour-long meeting.


3. (C) Racke said the FNL delegation was led by Pasteur
Habimana, and the GOT delegation was headed by the MFA
Director for African Affairs, H.W. Biswaro. The
Tanzanian Ambassador to Burundi was also participating,
and Racke is sitting in as an observer. From the GOT
perspective, the objective of the meeting is to determine
whether the FNL is really serious about negotiations with
the GOB this time. There had been ?many false starts?
with the FNL and the GOT was understandably suspicious,
Racke said, but it now appears the FNL is serious. The
GOT?s increasing confidence is evidenced by the fact that
the FNL delegation met with MFA Permanent Secretary
Philemon Luhanjo on April 5, and is scheduled to meet
with Foreign Minister Jakaya Kikwete on April 9.


4. (C) Racke said there had been a pause in the talks
on April 6, when the GOT had asked the FNL to develop a
specific agenda for the talks. Without a set agenda, the
FNL focused on the past rather than the future, he said,
so the agenda was important to move the talks forward.
The longer the talks go on, Racke said, the more
difficult it will be for the FNL to extricate itself from
the talks.


5. (C) If the talks proceed well, then Foreign Minister
Kikwete would report to President Mkapa within two weeks
with a recommendation on whether or not to continue, and
Mkapa would then go to South African Vice President Zuma
and regional leaders to consult on the way forward.
Whether or not to lift the terrorist group designation
for the FNL would be a key question at this stage, Racke
said. If Mkapa believes the FNL is serious, then he
would push hard at this stage for direct FNL/GOB talks,
leading to direct talks between President Ndiazeye and
Agathon Rwasa, the ultimate objective.


6. (C) Racke said that although Mkapa remains highly
suspicious of the FNL, he wants to do everything possible
to create a conducive atmosphere, without in any way
undermining the existing peace framework. Racke said
Mkapa had written to FNL leader Agathon Rwasa agreeing to
facilitate the talks on the following conditions:

a. the FNL had no preconditions for talks with the GOB
b. there would be a preparatory meeting first (the
current Dar es Salaam talks)
c. both the GOB and the FNL demonstrated seriousness
about the talks
d. the talks should not impact the calendar for Burundi
elections and other steps
e. the talks should be within the framework of the
existing regional peace mechanisms
f. Rwasa would participate personally in the talks


7. (C) Racke reported that Rwasa had agreed to all
conditions in a letter to Mkapa. Rwasa had originally
wanted the talks to be under the auspices of the UN, but
Mkapa had refused, insisting on utilizing existing
regional mechanisms, and Rwasa had acquiesced.


8. (C) Asked about why the FNL was apparently now
serious about talks with the GOB, Racke said part of the
cause was the evolving situation in the eastern DROC.
Recent new developments such as the USG-led tripartite
mechanism, the AU Libreville summit?s commitment to the
tripartite mechanism and MONUC, increased commitment by
the DROC Contact Group, and a strengthening of MONUC and
an apparent new ?willingness to fight,? had changed the
terrain, according to Racke. The FNL is legitimately
concerned that it is losing its refuge in eastern DROC,
he said, and equally concerned that it must join the
peace process now or risk being left behind for good.


9. (C) Racke expressed concern that the CNDD-FDD could
actively oppose talks with the FNL, and said the
international community would need to provide strong
support for President Ndiazeye if he does decide to hold
direct talks. Another complicating factor is that any
guarantees made to the FNL by President Ndiazeye would be
viewed with suspicion by the FNL, who could legitimately
wonder how such guarantees could be enforced once
Ndiazeye steps down. Racke noted that President Mkapa
was also taking a considerable risk by getting involved,
and suggested that if Mkapa does reach the phase of going
to Zuma and other regional leaders with a recommendation,
a statement of support from the international community
would be helpful.


10. (C) Comment: Although much work remains to be
done, the initial signs from these early talks appear
encouraging. It is also encouraging that President Mkapa
is insisting that any talks must be within existing
regional peace frameworks, and that ultimately the talks
must involve Agathon Rwasa directly. End Comment.

OWEN