Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DARESSALAAM57
2005-01-13 04:38:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dar Es Salaam
Cable title:  

Mkapa's New Year's Greeting Warns Diplomats

Tags:  PGOV PREL TZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000057 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: 1/11/15
TAGS: PGOV PREL TZ
SUBJECT: Mkapa's New Year's Greeting Warns Diplomats
on Electoral Assistance


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.5(b)

REF: A)04 Dar es Salaam 2602, B)04 Dar es Salaam 2600
C)04 Dar es Salaam 2341, D) 04 Dar es Salaam 1935

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000057

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: 1/11/15
TAGS: PGOV PREL TZ
SUBJECT: Mkapa's New Year's Greeting Warns Diplomats
on Electoral Assistance


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.5(b)

REF: A)04 Dar es Salaam 2602, B)04 Dar es Salaam 2600
C)04 Dar es Salaam 2341, D) 04 Dar es Salaam 1935


1. (C) Summary: At his traditional New Year Sherry
party for the diplomatic community, President Mkapa
briefly outlined a list of development programs and
regional international initiatives, but Tanzania's
upcoming elections were the real highlight of this
year's speech. In an apparent effort to pre-empt any
international criticism of next October's elections,
President Mkapa asserted that last year's local
elections were successful and demonstrated
overwhelming popular support for the ruling CCM party.
Echoing remarks Zanzibari President Karume had made
days earlier, Mkapa voiced what appears to be the new
CCM party line: that foreign donors should not assume
the CCM has to cheat to win the 2005 general
elections. End summary

Development and Diplomatic Priorities
--------------


2. (U) The President's sherry party, held this year on
January 7, is an annual tradition in which the
President informs assembled Ambassadors of Tanzania's
development priorities and international initiatives.
The 2005 speech began on a somber note, as President
Mkapa asked attendees to observe a moment of silence
to commemorate victims of the tsunami disaster. Mkapa
called for the establishment of a tsunami early
warning system for the Indian Ocean.

3.(U) During 2005, President Mkapa said Tanzania would
consolidate its economic reforms and strengthen public
institutions. The focus would be on investing in
infrastructure such as roads and bridges, and on
addressing the special needs of the large informal
sector. President Mkapa thanked the Norwegian
government in particular for its assistance in
implementing the Property and Business Formalization
Program. Health and education programs also got a
mention. President Mkapa said that the Tanzanian
Government would focus on its HIV/AIDS Care and
Treatment Plan for 2005. He thanked the Clinton
Foundation, President Bush's Emergency Plan for AIDS
Relief and the Global Fund for their assistance.


4. (U) President Mkapa also briefly outlined
Tanzania's foreign policy priorities for the coming
year. He reiterated Tanzania's commitment to

deepening regional integration through both SADC and
the EAC. He voiced Tanzania's support of various
peace processes. He opined that the Dar es Salaam
Declaration was the best foundation for peace in the
Great Lakes region, and he lamented that the ink on
the agreement had barely dried before tensions
escalated between Rwanda and the DRC. Mkapa welcomed
the peace agreement between the Sudanese government
and the SPLM, and called for the international
community to meet the challenge of resolving the
conflict and providing humanitarian assistance in
Darfur. Perhaps as a gesture toward the Palestinian
ambassador, who is the doyen, Mkapa eulogized Yasser
Arafat with some eloquence and at some length, and
said that Tanzania's thoughts and prayers would be
with the Palestinian people as they elected a leader
who "will take forward . . .the peaceful struggle for
an independent, stable and secure Palestine coexisting
peacefully with the State of Israel." President Mkapa
concluded by thanking all countries for their
overwhelming support for Tanzania's candidacy for the
Security Council.

An Election Year Warning
--------------


5. (C) Mkapa's speech will be most remembered,
however, for its focus on the general elections, now
set for October 30, 2005. While he emphasized his
support for ongoing electoral reforms, Mkapa also
attempted to pre-empt foreign criticism of the coming
year's campaign by declaring that the ruling CCM party
was strong, popular, and did not have to cheat to win
elections. Mkapa said that the November 2004 local
elections demonstrated Tanzania's commitment to
developing democratic leadership at the grassroots
level, and that the elections generated "unprecedented
interest and passion." (Comment: This
characterization of the local elections might have
surprised some of the assembled diplomats who had
observed low voter turn-out, poor organization and
short tempers at many the urban polling places. See
reftel B.) President Mkapa noted that 350,000
elective positions, all on the Tanzanian mainland,
were contested in the local elections. While returns
from a few of the more remote areas were still
trickling in almost two months after the elections,
the overall results of the elections had just been
compiled. President Mkapa reported an astounding
tally for the CCM: 96.6 percent of the vote went to
ruling party candidates; with the CUF party in second
place with 1.49 percent of the votes on the Tanzanian
mainland. The remaining sixteen registered political
parties each received less than one percent of the
vote.


6. (U) Mkapa reiterated his support for political
reforms during the nine years of his administration,
and said he would consolidate those reforms during his
final year in office. He gave a nod to the "spirit
of the Muafaka," the bipartisan agreement between the
CCM and the CUF that mandates electoral reforms on
polarized Zanzibar. Mkapa called for efforts to
strengthen political institutions and for a binding
code of political conduct to guide partisan behavior
during the campaign and voting.

The New CCM Party Line
--------------

7.(C) Although his speech touched on strengthening
democratic institutions, Mkapa clearly is placing most
of his energy into strengthening the ruling CCM party.
In an implied warning to the assembled diplomats, he
said "I strongly discourage the notion that if CCM
wins, it has rigged the elections . . .CCM is very
strong. We do not need to rig. We have more to gain
by winning peacefully, fairly and squarely."


8. (U) Mkapa's remarks appear to be the final
confirmation of CCM's new party line. Mkapa's speech
echoed the sentiments voiced by Zanzibari President
Karume just a few days earlier, when Karume
inaugurated the new headquarters for the Zanzibar
Electoral Commission (ZEC). On that occasion, Karume
decried foreign "meddling," saying that some foreign
observers believe an election is free and fair only if
an opposition party wins it. Karume had also
reiterated the discredited accusation that one British
diplomat had observed voter registration on Pemba
without the knowledge of the ZEC or the Zanzibar
government. (In fact, a half-dozen diplomatic
missions, including the US Embassy, sent observers at
the invitation of the ZEC and the Foreign Ministry.
Please see Reftels A and C). Karume also advised
foreign donors (rather unnecessarily) to look at other
issues, and not only elections.

The Diplomats Take the Measure of the CCM
--------------


9. (C) Diplomats sipping sherry on the Statehouse
terrace after the speech had an opportunity to
exchange views on the remarks of both Presidents, and
to speculate what they meant for the CCM's election
campaign. Diplomats representing the Basket Group
that had funded the renovation of the ZEC headquarters
described an uncomfortable situation at the
inauguration. Karume had made his unhelpful remarks
in Swahili, frequently directed an unsmiling gaze
toward the assembled donors, who only partially
understood him. According to some of the diplomats
who had been present, Karume never even thanked them
for the building. The Dutch Ambassador speculated
that Karume had been misinformed about the diplomatic
group that had observed voter registration; or perhaps
Zanzibar government officials were miffed by the way
the invitations had been issued. (The Foreign
Ministry of the Union Government had issued the
invitations to embassies on behalf of the ZEC.)
UNDP Country Representative John Hendra observed that
voter registration was going well nationwide,
notwithstanding the ritualized hand-wringing over
foreign observers. Over 90% of potential voters had
registered in most districts on the mainland. On
Zanzibar, registration teams finished on schedule in
southern Pemba, then moved to the north. These teams
have been registering just under 90% of potential
voters in most districts, and the violent
confrontations of the early days of voter registration
have not been repeated.


10. (C) Comment: Mkapa's New Year's speech indicates
the diplomatic community can generally expect more of
the same from Tanzania's international relations in

2005. The Foreign Ministry, short on staff and often
overwhelmed, will continue to work mostly through
international organizations and will follow the
regional consensus, rather than take the initiative on
most issues. The Tanzanian Government, heavily
dependent on foreign assistance, will continue to
welcome cooperation with donors on various long-term
assistance projects. Electoral assistance, however,
is proving to be the major exception: Mkapa's speech
represents a clear effort to set election-year limits
on outside assistance and advice.


11. (C) Comment continued: The CCM's sweep of 96.6%
of the vote in a field of 17 competitors indicates the
strength of the ruling party; but it also indicates
the continuing weakness of multiparty democracy on the
Tanzanian mainland. Only on Zanzibar, where the
opposition CUF is strong, are there prospects for real
electoral competition in 2005. The donor community
has tended to see President Mkapa as an ally in the
effort to strengthen Tanzanian democratic
institutions, and to help Zanzibar overcome its
history of electoral conflict. Donors believed Mkapa
was concerned about his legacy, interested in
promoting a strong democratic transition nd capable
of reining in embattled CCM hardliners on Zanzibar and
preventing their worst excesses. With his January 7
speech, however, President Mkapa indicated that he
would be a CCM partisan first, and a small-d democrat
second. Mkapa seems more inclined to support
hardliners like Karume, rather than rein them in.
This first week of the New Year opened with a rather
discouraging display of CCM party solidarity. End
Comment.

Owen