Bumps in the Road for Voter Registration on

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 000551

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: 3/16/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID TZ
SUBJECT: Bumps in the Road for Voter Registration on
Zanzibar


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 532, B)Dar es Salaam 342,
C) Dar es Salaam 317, D) Dar es Salaam 214


1. (C) Summary: At the midpoint of voter registration,
the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) continues to
conduct a generally peaceful and credible exercise.
Informed observers nonetheless note some disturbing
recent developments that could undermine the
credibility of the Permanent Voters Register (PVR).
The astonishingly large turnout at some constituencies
in North Ugunja, and the disproportionate registration
of young men at some centers, gives weight to
accusations that some party activists are resorting to
irregular tactics to pad the voter rolls. The ZEC's
surprise announcement that it would undertake
redistricting now, rather than after the elections, is
fueling suspicions of pre-election gerrymandering.
Members of the diplomatic group feel blindsided, but
see few alternatives to their previously unreserved
support for the ZEC. End Summary

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The ZEC Posts Astonishing Registration Results
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2. (U) The ZEC's voter registration teams completed
voter registration on Ugunja Island's Northern Region
February 18, then opened registration in the Southern
Region a few days later. Registration has proceeded
quietly in the pro-CCM south, even as the ZEC compiled
and published the final tallies for voter registration
in the north. Zanzibar is highly politicized, so it's
not surprising that Zanzibaris are turning out in
droves to register. The results in some Northern
Region constituencies, however, are causing raised
eyebrows among opposition party leaders, academics,
and foreign diplomats alike. According to the ZEC,
110 percent of the estimated electorate registered to
vote throughout Ugunja's Northern Region. In the
northern constituencies of Bumbwini, Donge and
Tumbatu, registration tallies were respectively 115
percent, 121 percent and 122 percent of the estimates.
The Northern Region figures are particularly startling
when they are compared with registration figures for
Pemba Island, the stronghold of the opposition CUF,
where a more reasonable 83 percent of the estimated
electorate turned out to register.


3. (C) The estimated size of the electorate is based
on data from the 2002 Census. Midway through the
North Region's registration process, the Acting
Minister for Good Governance had told poloff that he
expected very high registration tallies, because so
many people had moved to Ugunja Island since 2002.
These three constituencies are far from Uguja's
booming tourist destinations, however, and it does not
seem likely they have received such a large influx of
newcomers in the last three years. All three of these
constituencies do have one characteristic in common:
these are constituencies where the opposition CUF
party is strong enough to pose a challenge in what is
otherwise a pro-CCM region.

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Rough Edges Appear in a Smooth Procedure
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4. (C) The January newsletter by the Tanzanian
election observation NGO "TEMCO" had a generally
favorable portrayal of voter registration on Zanzibar,
and reported only minimal procedural errors and
irregularities. (TEMCO's observation of voter
registration on Zanzibar is supported entirely through
ESF funding.) In a March 8 meeting, TEMCO director
Rwekaza Mukandala said that the next newsletter would
be more critical. Mukandala described several
practices that became widespread during registration
in Ugunja's Northern Region, which seemed intended to
pad the voter rolls.


5. (C) Professor Mukandala was especially concerned
about registration activity in the two newly-
established and controversial centers in Bumbweni
constituency, Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri. These
two centers are very remote, yet large numbers of
voters registered there, including a disproportionate
number of young men. Mukandala thought these facts
supported the opposition's complaints that the CCM
government had deliberately transferred members of the
volunteer security forces to register in the most
competitive constituencies. (In a March 9 meeting,
CUF Secretary General Seiff Sharif Hamad produced
numbers: he said that 1,700 voters had registered in
Pangatupo, even though the nearby village had a
population of only 350 people. Hamad said that two
thirds of Pangatupo's registered voters were male,
with the 18 -20 age cohort predominating.)


6. (C) Professor Mukandala thought that both CCM and
CUF partisans were guilty of another irregular
practice that may have been widespread in Northern
Region, the registration of underage voters. In
addition, CCM party agents questioned the eligibility
of prospective voters originating from pro-CUF Pemba
Island, while CUF agents challenged those who traced
their roots to the mainland. At least some of these
challenges may be justified, in the light of reports
that activists from both parties sought to facilitate
registration of visitors whose current residency on
Zanzibar was open to question. Mukandala noted that a
mere 20,000 votes could swing Zanzibar's Presidential
election. The contests in some of the Isles' small
constituencies could be swung by a mere handful of
extra votes.

-------------- --
Subjective Decisions Cloud an Objective Process
-------------- --


7. The ZEC's computerized voter registration
technology, funded in part by ESF, is capable of
storing vast amounts of data, photographs and
thumbprints of registered voters, and of cross-
checking for duplication. Given the paucity of
reliable documents on Zanzibar, however, local
officials at the registration centers often must make
subjective decisions about which applicants are
eligible for entry into this sophisticated database.
Under the reformed voter registration procedures,
mandated by the bipartisan Muafaka Accord and later
written into law, the highest-ranking ZEC official at
a registration center makes the final determination
about eligibility for registration.


8. (C) Troubling reports suggest that the local shehas
(the government-appointed village headmen) sometimes
made the final decisions about voter eligibilty.
(March 15 press reports said the prominent opposition
leaders in the Southern Region, including IV grantee
Naila Jiddawi, were denied registration after running
afoul of the local sheha.) Many shehas keep an
informal list of the individuals living in their
districts. Reportedly some ZEC officials relied on
the shehas' lists to determine residency, even though
some CUF leaders had previously discouraged the party
faithful from registering with the "pro-CCM" shehas.
An academic specialist on Zanzibar politics, Dr.
Kjetil Tronvoll, told a group of donor-country
diplomats that some party agents may also have had
undue influence. Under the reformed procedures, party
agents stationed at registration centers are
authorized to observe and advise on the registration
proceedings. In some centers, however, the CCM agents
reportedly co-opted agents from some of the smaller
opposition parties to build cheering sections big
enough to shout down CUF agents and ZEC officials
alike.

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The ZEC Opts for Re-districting Now
--------------


9. (C) As political tensions increased, the ZEC added
fuel to the fire with its late February announcement
that it would complete redistricting before the
elections. All observers agree that redistricting is
necessary and overdue, since the 2002 census showed
significant population movements from Pemba to Ugunja
Island. The timing of the ZEC's announcement
nonetheless raised suspicions. Previously, the ZEC
had planned redistricting for March 2004, but the
exercise threatened to be administratively difficult
and politically contentious; ZEC Commissioners
privately told several diplomats that they would
postpone redistricting until after the 2005 election.
The ZEC's recent reversal sparked controversy.
Politically-diverse Ugunja Island stands to gain three
seats in the Zanzibar House of Representatives, and
the opposition is convinced the government will
attempt to gerrymander the new districts to minimize
their influence. Reportedly, the ZEC will divide
small, rural pro-CCM constituencies to accommodate the
new seats, rather than adding new districts to
populous, pro-CUF Stonetown. CUF leaders fret that
the new constituencies will give the CCM government
more opportunities to slip extra voters onto the
rolls, since new boundary lines might not coincide
with those used during voter registration.

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The Diplomats Discuss their Options
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10. (C) A group of donor-country diplomats, assembled
at the Norwegian Embassy for a March 10 lecture by Dr.
Tronvoll, were dismayed by some of the recent
developments in voter registration. The consensus was
that the top Zanzibar government officials and CCM
party leaders had bullied the ZEC into conducting a
questionable re-districting process and opening the
Pangatupu and Kichaka Pwiriri centers to quietly
register militia members and other "extra" voters.
Canadian First Secretary Jeff McLaren told the group
he felt betrayed by the ZEC's apparent tolerance for
shoddy and opaque procedures.


11. (C) Poloff and others reminded the group that,
whatever the ZEC's failings, the law gave the ZEC sole
authority to organize and conduct elections and
declare the winner. Ultimately, it was up to the ZEC
to ensure that the process was credible and acceptable
to the Zanzibari electorate. The diplomatic community
could best help by

-- continuing to encourage the political parties to
challenge disputed registrations, using the legal
procedures established by the ZEC,

-- continuing to support independent observation of
voter registration,

-- encouraging the ZEC to consult regularly with the
political parties and the other Zanzibar stakeholders,
to keep them informed and to obtain their input on
redistricting and other electoral procedures, and to
build stakeholder confidence in those procedures,

-- talking regularly with top CCM and government
leaders to urge them to respect the ZEC's
independence, and to remind them that there will be
repercussions if Zanzibar has a third conflictive
election.


12. (C) Comment: During the by-elections of 2003, the
ZEC demonstrated that it could conduct a free, fair
and credible election. During the "Pemba phase" of
voter registration, the ZEC demonstrated that it could
handle the sophisticated technology and procedures for
establishing a Permanent Voters Register; the ZEC also
demonstrated that it could withstand considerable
political pressure and maintain its operational
independence. Unfortunately, as registration proceeds
in the high-stakes and closely-contested
constituencies of Unguja Island, the ZEC is
demonstrating that it can sometimes also be bullied.
Muafaka stakeholders and the international community
have already made a significant investment in
strengthening the ZEC, and in building its capacity to
conduct credible elections. Democratic development on
Zanzibar can only lose if we give up on the ZEC. At
the moment, there are no real alternatives to pressing
ahead with our efforts to support the ZEC. End
Comment.

OWEN