ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER'S DECEMBER 23

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAR ES SALAAM 002339

SIPDIS

AF FOR DON YAMAMOTO
ALSO FOR AF/E BYODER AND AF/RSA FOR JNAY
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM UG ET ER BY TZ OVIP FRAZER
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER'S DECEMBER 23
CONVERSATION WITH TANZANIAN PRESIDENT JAKAYA KIKWETE

REF: DAR ES SALAAM 02337

Classified By: Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer for reason
1.4(d)


1. (U) December 23, 2005, 11:30 a.m., Dar es Salaam,
Tanzania



2. (U) Participants:

U.S.
Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary of State

D. Purnell Delly, Charge d'Affaires
Maureen B. Latour, Political Officer

TANZANIA
Jakaya Kikwete, President
Pastor Ngaiza, Director for Europe and Americas, Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
Omary Mjenga, Special Assistant to Jakaya Kikwete as Foreign
Minister
Notetaker for President Kikwete


3. (C) SUMMARY: In a December 23 meeting with AF Assistant
Secretary Frazer, President Kikwete spoke confidently of

SIPDIS
overcoming the problems on Zanzibar, agreed Uganda,s
president Museveni is making the wrong decision by staying in
office, and suggested pressuring Ethiopia to accept the
ruling of the International Court of Justice's Boundary
Commission. Meeting two days after his inauguration, Kikwete
listed his priorities as education, the fight against
HIV/AIDS, and building international relations, as well as
continuing the peace and stability, and the unity, of the
country. A/S Frazer welcomed Kikwete,s idea of coming to
Washington for a visit as soon as possible and suggested they
try to arrange a visit early in the new year. END SUMMARY.

ZANZIBAR
--------------


4. (C) Kikwete said Zanzibar presents a challenge to be
overcome and that the present situation "gives me some
discomfort," but he is confident of the ability to find ways
of working together with the opposition Civic United Front
(CUF). A/S Frazer told Kikwete she had met with CUF leader
Seif Sharif Hamad and that he seemed distraught, but slightly
open to working with the new government, and with Kikwete in
particular. Kikwete commented that he tried to meet with
Hamad, noting "let,s see if we can work out something."


5. (C) A/S Frazer highlighted that the youth in Zanzibar
feel disenfranchised, not finding an opportunity to feel a
part of the electoral system. Kikwete noted the danger on
Zanzibar is the idea of secession creeping in and that is a
danger "which we must prevent." Kikwete said he would
address this issue as soon as possible and A/S Frazer
complimented his decision to make it a priority from the
outset of his administration.

PEMBA
--------------


6. (C) A/S Frazer shared her surprise that her meeting on
Pemba with Muslim clerics did not address politics or the
elections, but focused on basic living standards. Kikwete
said that poverty is the essence of problems on Pemba and
that, though both islands are poor, Pemba is less developed
than Unguja. Kikwete noted the improvements (e.g., roads,
electricity) made on Pemba during Zanzibar President Amani
Karume,s first term and said Karume feels frustrated that
the election results did not match the efforts he put in on
Pemba. The government needs to continue social services and
can do more in education, health and political relations,
Kikwete said, and "in time, we,ll get there."

MUSEVENI
--------------


7. (C) A/S Frazer praised Tanzania as a model for handing
power from leader to leader, in contrast to Uganda,s
President Yoweri Museveni. A/S Frazer said that while
integration is critical for the economy and that increasing
trade among Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania is important, it
should not be a reason for staying in power. Kikwete agreed
that Museveni is making the wrong decision and commented that
to die in office and leave people vying for office does a
disservice. Kikwete said Ugandans had asked both himself and
former president Mkapa for help and that the historicals (a
group of people who were with Museveni in the bush) have
tried to impress upon Museveni that he is making the wrong
decision and that it is better to help make a transition.

8. (C) Kikwete described Museveni,s decision to remain in
power as his "not opposing those who want him to continue"
and offered three reasons for this: to oversee the
implementation of Uganda,s comprehensive industrialization
strategy; distrust of Sudan,s President Omar Bashir; and the
desire to be in power to see East African integration.
Kikwete rejected these reasons for staying in power stating
that industrialization is a process that may take fifty to
one hundred years, asking how Museveni can be the guarantor
of the process in another country, and explaining that East
African integration will be a long process.


9. (C) Kikwete cited Museveni as saying he would stay in
office until 2013, and added that Museveni then may move to
the East African presidency. However, Kikwete is not sure
East Africans will accept him because of his record and his
reputation of not caring for the opinions of others. "It,s
not a matter of seniority," added Kikwete.


10. (C) A/S Frazer said the USG anticipates Uganda may be
going through some trouble. Kikwete agreed that Uganda may
experience a period of instability and alluded to future
violence, saying there is great animosity and both sides have
former generals. Though Kikwete hopes there is not another
civil war, he described the situation as precarious.

EAST AFRICA INTEGRATION
--------------


11. (C) Kikwete said the vision exists for East Africa
integration, but that Tanzania and Kenya have been busy with
the election and referendum processes, respectively, so he
does not anticipate moving forward on integration until at
least June 2006. Kikwete added that "we want to bring in
Rwanda and then Burundi a few months later," but emphasized
that they would need time to study the situation so that they
do not give up some of their sovereignty unaware.

PEACEKEEPING
--------------


12. (C) A/S Frazer commented that the USG wants to work with
the GOT on peacekeeping and stand-by brigades, stressing that
regional organization is critical. Kikwete responded that he
would get his advisors together, develop an agenda and get
back to A/S Frazer soon.
ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA
--------------


13. (C) Kikwete shared A/S Frazer,s concern about the
situation in Ethiopia and Eritrea, saying he wants to give
these countries an opportunity for peace, but acknowledged he
is not as familiar with the situation. A/S Frazer commented
that Eritrea,s President Isaias Afwerki is doing everything
that is counter to his objectives and making the situation
very difficult by refusing to see anyone and not attending
meetings (because they are in Addis Ababa). Kikwete said
that all parties agreed on going to the International Court
of Justice (ICJ) and to respect the decision of its Boundary
Commission, so all countries should put pressure on Ethiopia
to accept the decision. (Note: Kikwete repeatedly mixed up
the International Court of Justice decision with that of the
Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission, suggesting a lack of
familiarity with the Horn Crisis. End Note.)


14. (C) A/S Frazer raised the issue of the future of the
United Nations Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE),
commenting that the Indians want to leave and are
uncomfortable with Isaias, actions. Kikwete does not
believe Afwerki has enough military power to take down
Ethiopia.

BURUNDI
--------------


15. (C) On Burundi, Kikwete said he will continue efforts
in this area and will try to bring the "crazy guys,"
including FNL leader Agathon Rwasa, to Tanzania. Kikwete
described them as always asking to pray and quoting the Bible
in their letters, so he asked them why they keep killing
people; their reply was "we do it in the name of god."


16. (C) Comment: This unplanned meeting came about on the
suggestion of Kikwete,s personal assistant which he conveyed
to the Assistant Secretary upon arrival at the first
scheduled event of the day. The speed with which this
meeting with the newly elected and very popular president was
arranged two days after the inauguration and following an
initial meeting held on inauguration day (reftel) indicates
Kikwete wanted this meeting.

17. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer cleared this cable.
DELLY