Zanzibar Elections: Worrisome Prospects

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 001241

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: 6/25/15
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: Zanzibar Elections: Worrisome Prospects

Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1090 B)Dar es Salaam 1001,
C) Dar es Salaam 908, D) Dar es Salaam 772


1. (C) Summary: The Diplomatic Group convened June
17 to discuss Zanzibar's elections preparations, and
to plan its response to troubling recent
developments. Earlier in the week, Zanzibar
Presidential candidate Seif Shariff Hamad had called
on several Western embassies to describe the
opposition CUF party's struggles on an uneven
playing field. Hamad also said CUF would stage a
massive "peoples' power" civil disobedience campaign
if the Zanzibar elections were "stolen again." On
June 15, the election observation NGO "TEMCO" held a
conference for Zanzibar's stakeholders to discuss
voter registration, highlighting the many problems
that could undermine the credibility of the
Permanent Voters Register (PVR) and the elections.
On the positive side, Zanzibar President Karume
opened TEMCO's Conference and said all the right
things about fair elections. Observers concur that
the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) still could
implement technical measures to resolve the problems
with the PVR. It remains to be seen if the ZEC will
in fact do so, and if the rest of the Zanzibari
government will refrain from interfering during the
critical run-up to the October 30 elections. End
Summary.

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Debate and Contingency Planning
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2. (U) Voter registration on Zanzibar ended April
26, and the official campaign does not open until
August 20. During this interim period, the ZEC is
receiving objections to names that may have been
wrongly entered on the PVR or wrongly omitted.
Together with the courts, the ZEC is adjudicating
these cases. Meanwhile, Zanzibar's election
"stakeholders" are debating the prospects for
credible elections; some are making contingency
plans in the event irregularities and violence once
again undermine the electoral process.

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TEMCO Provided a Forum for Debate . . .
--------------


3. (U) A June 15 conference on Zanzibar's voter
registration, hosted by TEMCO, highlighted both the
serious problems with the PVR, and Zanzibar's
widening political polarization. TEMCO, the
Tanzanian NGO that USAID funded to observe voter
registration on Zanzibar, presented TEMCO presented
its findings to a cross section of "stakeholders."
Conference attendees included Zanzibari government
officials, representatives of the CCM and CUF
parties and nearly a dozen smaller parties, NGOs and
the Diplomatic Group itself.


4. (U) In Zanzibar's volatile political atmosphere,
the conference was interesting primarily for who
attended, and how they reacted to TEMCO's findings
and to each other. The most encouraging
presentation was the opening statement, delivered by
Zanzibar President Karume. Karume's brief and
rather bland speech hit all the right notes about
the government's support for free and fair
elections, and Karume's determination to work with
TEMCO, the donors and others to ensure the
credibility of the PVR. (Karume's speech might have
caused dismay only to the diplomat who had bet a
bottle of scotch that the embattled CCM incumbent
would never show for the conference.)


5. (SBU) Karume departed soon after the opening,
but he left his Minister for Women's Affairs, and
several CCM party stalwarts to deliver the CCM hard
line in the discussion sessions. Predictably, they
lambasted TEMCO and questioned the NGO's neutrality
in Zanzibar's electoral contest. Representatives of
several of the smaller opposition parties spoke
passionately, and at great length, to denounce the
bipartisan Muafaka Accord signed between the CCM and
the CUF. It was clear that the other opposition
parties still resent their exclusion from the
Muafaka negotiations in 2001; about the permanent
voters register and other reforms mandated under the
Muafaka they had little to say. As the target of
most of the criticism about voter registration, the
Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) kept a low
profile. The ZEC was represented only by its
information officer, who did not speak during the
day. One of the TEMCO observers, however, told the
diplomats privately that TEMCO and the ZEC
commissioners regularly exchanged views. One
Commissioner had even told her he was grateful to
TEMCO for saying what the ZEC could not say in
public.

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. . . and Noted Problems with Voter Registration
-------------- ---


6. (U) In their presentations, several TEMCO
observers delivered hard-hitting criticisms of the
voter registration process. These came as little
surprise to the diplomatic group whose members had
also observed voter registration in the field.
TEMCO observers cited the following problems, also
reported extensively in reftels:

-- Excessively high levels of voter registration in
some constituencies, in some cases exceeding 200
percent of the expected turnout.

-- Evidence that the government sent members of the
irregular security forces to register en masse in
certain constituencies.

-- Widespread interference with registration by
government-appointed village headmen ("shehas"),in
contravention of electoral law and ZEC procedure.

-- Numerous cases in which shehas selectively denied
individuals access to the registration centers. In
contravention of ZEC procedures, many of these
individual were not allowed to document or to appeal
their denial.

-- Strong social and familial pressure led many
individuals to register even when they were underage
or otherwise ineligible.

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--
The CUF Party Lists Complaints about the Process . .
.
-------------- --------------
--

7.(C) The opposition CUF party, which stands a good
chance of winning Zanzibar's elections, did not send
its top officials to TEMCO's conference. Instead,
Seif Sharif Hamad, the CUF's candidate for President
of Zanzibar, made the rounds of Western embassies in
Dar es Salaam the week of June 13 -17 to outline the
CUF's concerns about the PVR and other elections
preparations. (Hamad met with US Emboff June 14.)
In addition to the well-known problems with the
voters register, Hamad listed the following
concerns:

--Hamad has publicly stated that he would concede
should he lose a free and fair election. Incumbent
President Karume has yet to make such a commitment.

-- The ruling CCM, contrary to the spirit of the
Muafaka, refuses to talk with CUF. It took months
of effort for the CUF to schedule a June 11 meeting
between the Secretaries General of the two parties.
The CCM canceled it, however, after a murky incident
in which CUF militants reportedly stoned the home of
CCM Presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete.

-- Zanzibar's security forces, assisted by police
from the Mainland, were clamping down on the
opposition. Hamad claimed that "Operation Dondola"
continued, resulting in the arrest of 270 CUF
supporters but nobody from the CCM. (Reftel B)

-- The government has launched a crash program to
issue an ID card to each Zanzibari by September.
While the new ID cards are not a requirement for
voting, Hamad worried that on election day, the
police would check ID cards as a pretext to prevent
CUF supporters from moving freely to the polling
places.

-- The Zanzibari Government is paying $5 million
dollars for the ID cards, but is slow to provide
basic operating funds to the ZEC.

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. .. and Plans a Peoples Power Campaign
--------------


8. (C) Hamad informed his diplomatic interlocutors
that if the CCM again manipulated the Zanzibar
elections to keep its hold on power, the CUF would
take to the streets in a "Ukrainian-style People's
Power campaign." The CUF would stage massive, but
non-violent, demonstrations on Zanzibar and in
selected mainland cities. Hamad said speakers at
CUF rallies were already instructing party activists
on tactics for non-violent protest and "avoiding
police provocations." Several diplomats challenged
the CUF to list positive steps that can be taken now
to help ensure the credibility of the October
elections. Hamad's to-do list included:

-- ZEC should publish the preliminary voter
registration lists for Unguja Island and begin the
objections process there. (Administrative problems
have delayed the posting of the lists until the
first week of July.)

-- ZEC should contract with the South African
company Waymark for the purchase of software to
detect duplicate images (thumbprints and
photographs) in the PVR's computer database.

-- Foreign Embassies should issue a public statement
of standards for free and fair elections on
Zanzibar. In response to emboff's questions, Hamad
said that these standards could draw on Zanzibar's
own Electoral Law, or on the SADC election
standards, which the Tanzanian government has
already accepted.

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The Diplomatic Group Contemplates Next Steps . . .
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9. (C) TEMCO's conference and the CUF's demarches
highlighted serious problems that could undermine
the credibility of the PVR, and ultimately
Zanzibar's elections. The week's events also
revealed Zanzibar's growing political polarization,
foreshadowing a conflictive campaign season.
Despite these grim developments the Diplomatic
Group, and we, are determined not to give up on
Zanzibar just yet. For now, the diplomats are
urging fractious Zanzibaris to take concrete steps
to re-establish dialogue, reduce tensions and
resolve problems with the PVR. When Seif Sharif
Hamad made the rounds of Western embassies, several
of his interlocutors urged him to approach the
missions of democratic African countries as well, to
show that democratic principles are universal, and
not exclusively Western. At the TEMCO Conference,
several of the diplomats in attendance encouraged
TEMCO director Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala to emphasize
the ZEC's role in "scrubbing" the PVR, lest the
whole conference become an exercise in fruitless
"ZEC bashing."

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. . .Recalibrating the Diplomatic Message
--------------


10. (C) In their June 17 meeting, Heads of Mission
in the Diplomatic Group decided to stay the course
for now. The diplomats will continue to meet with
Zanzibari and Tanzanian political leaders and to
reiterate their six-point message in support of a
credible voters register and a peaceful election.
The UK High Commissioner suggested nonetheless that
the Diplomatic Group make contingency plans to
increase the political pressure if circumstances
warranted it. He suggested that the Diplomatic
Group draft a joint statement, which could be signed
by the Heads of Mission and released publicly in the
event of an upsurge of political conflict, or of
apparent government interference with preparations
for the elections. Some diplomats also suggested
staging a joint consular visit to the isles in
August, to assess the security situation during the
run-up to the elections, and to consider possible
coordination on travel advisories to their
nationals. Many thought that a relatively high
profile assessment of Zanzibar's security might also
remind the Zanzibar government that another
conflictive election could undermine Zanzibar's all-
important tourism sector.

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. . .and Emphasizing Practical Fixes
--------------


11. (C) The Diplomatic Group is also contemplating
immediate steps to resolve problems with the PVR and
build its credibility. Donors from the nine-member
Muafaka Basket are identifying funds to purchase new
software from Waymark which would detect duplicate
thumbprints and photographs in the PVR. Waymark,
the company that provided equipment and technical
support to establish the PVR, had been working on a
feasibility study for the software last May, when
the ZEC abruptly broke off contract negotiations.
Reportedly, Waymark's feasibility study revealed
that up to 6 percent of the records in the PVR were
duplicates; this closely held and potentially
explosive information might have been a factor in
the ZEC's sudden reluctance to obtain the software.
While the ZEC now indicates that it will sign a
contract with Waymark, the donors worry that any
further delay could cost the ZEC the opportunity to
eliminate dual registrations from the PVR.


12. (C) The diplomats are also urging the ZEC to
reopen voter registration in order to accommodate
those Zanzibaris, perhaps numbering several
thousand, who were previously denied access to the
registration centers. The ZEC has the legal
authority to reopen registration, although it
remains to be seen if the ZEC can better control the
shehas during a second round of registration, and
prevent them from again unilaterally blocking access
to the centers, in contravention of the established
voter registration procedures.


13. (C) Comment: We have not lost hope for free,
fair and peaceful elections on Zanzibar, although
some of these recent developments do not bode well.
The ZEC still has sufficient time, technical
expertise, legal authority, and donor assistance to
resolve many of the problems with the PVR. Although
the Zanzibar government has a record of interfering
with voter registration and sometimes undermining
the ZEC's authority, President Karume still publicly
proclaims his support for fair elections and
unbiased electoral assistance. Finally, an
active, committed Diplomatic Group is in a position
to assist the ZEC with technical solutions, and to
apply diplomatic pressure to hold President Karume
to his word. End comment.

OWEN