Deteriorating Security Situation on Zanzibar

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 001001

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E

E.O. 12958: 5/23/15
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EAID SCUL TZ
SUBJECT: Deteriorating Security Situation on Zanzibar


Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason
1.4(b)

REF: A) Dar es Salaam 972, B) Dar es Salaam 832, C)
Dar es Salaam 801, D) Dar es Salaam 772 and previous


1. (C) Summary: Violence broke out in Zanzibar's
Urban West Region during voter registration; weeks
later, Stonetown and its environs are still on edge.
A police operation to keep order during registration
has ended, with a mixed verdict on its results.
People who go out in the evenings still run the risk
of random arrest or a police beating. Civilian gangs,
many associated with the ruling CCM party, also are
said to be operating. Individuals who come from Pemba
Island, considered a hotbed of the opposition CUF,
appear to be the target of most, but not all, of these
attacks and arrests. Stonetown's lively nightlife has
become subdued, and many observers worry that the
atmosphere of confrontation and intimidation could
worsen as Zanzibar approaches a contentious election
in October. The bipartisan Muafaka Accord urged
greater professionalism and political neutrality for
the police force; the US mission has made a
considerable investment in police training. The next
months will be a test of police capacity to play a
positive role, rather than a negative one, in ensuring
free, fair and peaceful elections. End Summary.

Confrontations and Violence in Urban West
--------------


2. (U) Zanzibari interlocutors of all political
persuasions expected there would be trouble during
voter registration Urban West Region, and events
proved them right. During the registration period of
April 2-26, Stonetown and its environs saw numerous
violent incidents, most affecting CUF supporters
although CCM adherents also were victimized. These
incidents, reported previously, included: an arson
attack that damaged the home of a CCM agent; a mob
attack on CUF candidate Hamad's home with damage to
some vehicles in the neighborhood; an arson attack
that destroyed a building materials factory, whose
owner comes from Zanzibar's Pemba Island; arson
attacks and home invasion against eight different
homes in a Stonetown neighborhood that has a large
population of people from Pemba Island; the murder of
a CCM party agent, whose body was found in a shallow
grave on his own farm, and an attack "by unknown
persons" on citizens waiting at a registration center,
which resulted in the hospitalization of six would-be
registrants. Different sources disagree on whether
CCM or CUF supporters were the victims in this last
attack. Reportedly, groups of red-shirted thugs,
nicknamed "the Janjaweed" are attacking and
intimidating the Pembans. Pemba is known as hotbed of
support for the opposition CUF; the Janjaweed are
associated with the ruling CCM.

Police Launch "Operation Dondola"
--------------


3. (C) In an effort to keep the peace in Urban West
Region during voter registration, the regular Field
Force Unit (FFU) of the Police launched "Operation
Dondola." Six police officers from the mainland
directed Zanzibar's FFU contingent in the operation.
Some of the police involved have benefited from INL
and ILEA training in civil disorder management or in
basic criminal investigation. Speaking in a May 11
meeting with RSO and poloff, Police Commissioner
Tibasana characterized the operation as a standard
police sweep, targeting areas of known criminal
activity so as to reduce the potential for violence
during the tense registration period. Tibasana said
that about 30 people were arrested under Operation
Dondola, and that most had since been released.
Charges included traffic and drug offenses, as well as
offenses related to registration, or disorderly
conduct near registration sites. Operation Dondola,
which received substantial publicity, ended along with
voter registration on April 26. Tibasana said the
police had received no complaints from either party.
He emphasized that he continually reminded the police
on the street to act within law and to remain non-
partisan. In particular, he said he often reminded
police and government leaders alike that the police
cannot interfere with lawful political demonstrations.
Tibasana is now planning for the elections and post
election period, when a more visible police presence
will likely be necessary.


4. (C) Two representatives of the International
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC),who met with Charge
the following day, corroborated the number of arrests
under Operation Dondola. They said the ICRC had had
access to the detainees. The ICRC representatives
also noted that police, in what is unfortunately still
common practice, had beaten and mistreated some of the
detainees. However, the ICRC did not find evidence of
a deliberate policy of abuse of detainees under
Operation Dondola.


5. (C) A fundamentalist Muslim NGO, known as "Uamsho"
or "Islamic Revival" presented a more disturbing view
of the Operation Dondola arrests. (Uamsho's leaders
almost certainly support CUF, although they publicly
deny an association with any political party.) Uamsho
invited poloff to Zanzibar to discuss the experiences
of three men who had been arrested. In a lengthy May
17 meeting in the Uamsho offices, poloff met with each
man in turn. Two said they had attempted to register
at the Kinononi registration center, but that the
local sheha said that they were ineligible because
they came from Pemba Island. Later that same night,
police came to their homes to arrest them on
disorderly conduct charges. One man reported that
when he was en route to the station, the police beat
him so badly that he required hospitalization. The
other said that when he was released several days
later, an "intelligence official" demanded a 150,000
shilling bribe. The two reported that six other
Pemban men who had tried unsuccessfully to register at
the Kinononi center during the day, had also been also
arrested that night. They said that all eight have
since been released, but that the local sheha was
threatening to arrest them again. A third man told
poloff that he had been arrested and charged with
weapons offenses, early one morning when he had been
out jogging. Four others were arrested, apparently at
random, and charged in the same case. One of these,
who originated from Unguja Island, was quickly
released, but charges are still pending against the
other four, who are all from Pemba. No weapons,
pictures of weapons, or evidence of a weapons cache
were presented in court.

Tensions Persist after Close of Registration
--------------


6. (C) In the weeks since voter registration ended,
Urban West Region remains tense and confrontations
have persisted. The ICRC representatives said that
Pemban neighborhoods in particular were "under
pressure." Many men in these neighborhoods are not
sleeping in their homes at night, for fear of attack.
The ICRC blamed the "janjaweed" gangs for the home
invasions and beatings. In a May 16 discussion, the
CUF party's International Affairs Director, Ismail
Jussa Ladhu, also said that the youth gangs were
beating people randomly in the streets and that some
women have been raped.


7. (C) Although Operation Dondola has ended, the
heightened police activity continues. Several
interlocutors report increased patrols, especially in
Pemban neighborhoods, random sweeps of people gathered
in the streets, and even the closure of popular
nightclubs. Jussa reported that he was in the CUF's
party headquarters on the night of May 14, when police
surrounded the building and threatened to open fire on
people who did not leave immediately. Jussa said that
he telephoned an official at police headquarters, who
then ordered the police around the building to leave.
However, Jussa said that the police vehicle struck the
corner of a building as it was backing away through
the narrow, twisting streets around the CUF
headquarters. The following day, CUF leaders were
called into police station to respond to accusations
that CUF supporters had stoned the vehicle, causing
the damage. Jussa and others reported that during the
previous week, police units in full riot gear had
closed down several dance halls, sometimes hours
before their official closing time. None of these
nightspots is linked to any particular political
party. During high season, which will start in June,
some are frequented by foreign tourists.


8. (U) Several interlocutors reported that the police
continue to sweep the streets in the evening hours,
arresting people and sometimes beating them, more or
less at random. Typically, those arrested are charged
with loitering. Loitering is in fact a popular
pastime on Zanzibar, and usually it is not treated as
illegal. After evening prayers, a Zanzibari will
often go to a favorite street corner or ally to meet
with friends and exchange the day's news. Longtime
residents of Stonetown know the location of "CUF
corner" and dozens of other popular gathering spots
associated with one group or another. While many
observers believe that the crackdown
disproportionately affects CUF supporters and Pembans,
almost anybody risks getting caught up in a sweep.
Several newspapers reported that Zanzibar's Deputy
Attorney General was beaten during a police sweep.
Many interlocutors noted that Zanzibaris were now
staying home at night, and that the streets were
unusually empty after evening prayers.


9. (C) Discussions with a wide range of interlocutors
are yielding a mixed view of the security situation in
Zanzibar's Urban West Region. While government
officials, such as Zanzibar Water Minister Mansoor
Himid, are inclined to say that all has been calm
since voter registration ended, almost everybody else
paints a disturbing picture of police crackdowns on
public gatherings, assaults by partisan thugs, and
heightened tension. The situation bears watching.
Early June marks the beginning of high season, when
foreign tourists return to Stonetown, raising the
possibility that foreigners could be caught up in
political confrontations. The heightened political
tensions do not bode well for a peaceful election
campaign.

The Role of the Police is Pivotal
--------------


10. (C) The verdict is also mixed on the role of the
police in either quelling or provoking political
confrontations. The police have always been a crucial
factor in Zanzibar's brief history of troubled
elections. During the contentious 2000 campaign, the
police were accused of pro-CCM bias and blamed for
using excessive force to quell opposition protests.
The Muafaka Accord subsequently negotiated between the
CCM and the CUF, called for better police training and
suggested guidelines to ensure an effective, non-
intimidating police presence during elections.
Developments since then suggest an improved police
capacity to keep order, even when political tensions
are running high. The police received very good
reports for their efforts in the 2003 by-elections and
in voter registration on Pemba late in 2004. As the
high-stakes 2005 elections approach, however, it is
far from certain that the police will continue to
build on these hard-won lessons. Agustin Ramadhani,
the Deputy Chairman of the Zanzibar Electoral
Commission (ZEC),thought that the police were the
single most important factor determining if the
elections would be peaceful. Ramadhani admitted that
sometimes the police were biased. He said the ZEC
planned a major a civic education campaign, focusing
especially on the police.


11. (C) The role of Zanzibar's police is also of
particular interest to the US mission, which has made
a considerable investment in police training programs
on Zanzibar and the mainland. Tanzanian police have
attended courses offered through ILEA in Gaborone or
in the Roswell Academy, which emphasize basic
investigative techniques. The US mission built and
equipped a forensic laboratory on the mainland. It is
our expectation that this training will enable the
police to investigate crimes and build evidence-based
cases against the perpetrators, thereby reducing
pressure for the police to make random arrests or to
use beatings to obtain confessions. Some police have
also attended civil disorder management training,
learning techniques to quell violent disturbances by
using minimal, proportionate force. One goal of this
training is to prevent a repetition of Zanzibar's
post-election violence in 2000, when anti-riot police
moved too quickly to the use of live ammunition, with
tragic results. Zanzibar's police, and their
training, could soon be put to the most difficult of
tests: CUF's Jussa said that, should the 2005
elections once again be "stolen," CUF would take to
the streets in massive, peaceful displays of "people
power, like in Ukraine."


12. (C) Comment: Tension is growing on Zanzibar,
jeopardizing prospects that the electoral contest will
be either fair or peaceful. While the capacity of
Zanzibar's police is slowly improving, the force is
still a long way from being fully competent and
professional. There is still a risk that the police
will once again be visibly part of the problem, in the
event of the elections are fraudulent or violent. The
greater risk is that Zanzibar's embattled political
leaders will pressure the police to forget their
training, and to become a partisan tool for a
government determined to retain power by any means.
Ultimately, the police work for the Zanzibar
Revolutionary Government; this government has always
been CCM and is set on remaining so. In our
discussions with Zanzibar's governmental leaders, we
will urge that police be allowed to do their jobs: to
guarantee respect for law and order and an environment
of security that is fundamental to a free and fair
political campaign. End comment.


13. (u) Please see Embassy Dar es Salaam's SPRNet site
for a complete update and background on the Tanzanian
elections.

STILLMAN