SARG GENERALLY AVOIDING COMMENT ON MEHLIS REPORT;

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 006472

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: SARG GENERALLY AVOIDING COMMENT ON MEHLIS REPORT;
OTHERS OFFER MIXED ASSESSMENT


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.


1. (C) Summary: As of midday December 13 there has been
very little official SARG reaction to the release of the
second Mehlis report on the assassination of former PM Rafik
Hariri. One Ministry of Information official was quoted as
saying that Syria had other witnesses like Hussam Hussam and
Zuhier Siddik to refute the Mehlis report. He questioned
whether there was sufficient evidence to justify detaining
Syrian suspects. A proxy for the regime told PolChief the
report was much weaker than the first report, with no
evidence, "just probabilities." Another contact noted that
the SARG is paralyzed, frozen between two camps, one of which
argued for limited cooperation and the other for defiance.
Human rights activists welcomed the report, pointed to a few
positive aspects, and urged the U.S. not to support
implementing any sanctions that targeted the Syrian people.
End Summary.


2. (C) NOT MUCH OFFICIAL REACTION: Local journalists
reported that Ministry of Information officials avoided
offering any response December 14 to the second Mehlis
report, hiding behind the dodge that the report was not yet
available in Syria in Arabic, In fact, it was printed in
several Lebanese newspapers widely available in Syria. One
journalist speculated that the SARG wanted to wait and see
how the UNSC debate was shaping up before putting out a
public reaction.


3. (SBU) The recently appointed Director General of Syrian
TV and Radio, Dr. Fayez Sayegh, was quoted in a statement to
AFP saying that "Syria has new testimonies other than that of
Hussam Taher Hussam and Zuhier Siddiq which it has not
revealed (yet) to refute the Mehlis report." Sayegh
indicated that any request to arrest Syrian suspects "should
be referred to Syria which would then submit it to the Syrian
Investigative Committee." Sayegh stressed that the report
does not contain incriminating evidence that requires the
detention of Syrian witnesses. One unidentified SARG
official was quoted in Reuters saying that the government was
studying the report "and no comment will be made before this
is finished." Al-Hayat quoted Syrian sources as saying that
legal and political experts were preparing an official
response which FM Shara'a will deliver to the UNSYG.


4. (C) SECOND REPORT CALLED WEAKER, LESS PERSUASIVE THAN
FIRST: Foreign affairs analyst Dr. Imad Shueibi, who
maintains close ties to the regime and often serves as its
unofficial spokesperson in the media, told Polchief the
report was "biased and supportive of the enemies of Syria."
Shueibi also insisted that it did not contain any new
evidence. He described the report as weaker and much less
persuasive than the first Mehlis report, deriding it for
disseminating nothing more than "probabilities" about who
killed Hariri. Shueibi also asked sarcastically how a
serious criminal investigation, citing 36,000 pages of
testimony and evidence, had not turned up a single indicator
that a party other than Syria or its proxies could have
committed the crime. In his view, that was not credible.
Shueibi mentioned that he had spoken in the past few days
with suspects Rustom Ghazaleh and Jama'a Jama'a and was
convinced neither they nor other elements of the SARG
security services had been involved in -- or were capable of
undertaking -- the Hariri assassination. Shuebi questioned
why the report demanded the detention of Syrian suspects.


5. (C) MORE INSTABILITY IN LEBANON PREDICTED: Shueibi
predicted that the situation in Lebanon would continue to
deteriorate, even to the point of affecting US interests, if
the USG did not take steps to engage with Syria and start a
dialogue on how Syria could meet U.S. demands on Iraq,
Lebanon, and the Palestinian issue.


6. (C) REGIME PARALYZED: Sunni economist and civil society
activist Dr. Riyad Abrash characterized the Syrian regime as
"puzzled (by the U.S.) and paralyzed," torn between two
camps, one of which wanted to cooperate to some limited
degree and the other which wanted to defy UNIIIC and the
UNSC. Abrash hinted that the SARG may have gone about as far
as it can or is willing to go in cooperating, and already
fears the evidence that has been acquired.


7. (C) HUMAN RIGHTS ACTIVISTS WELCOME REPORT: Among human
rights activists, the assassination of Gibran Tueni clearly
overshadowed the release of the second Mehlis report. Human
rights activist and lawyer Haithem al-Maleh admitted to
having only heard press reports summarizing issues and having
not yet read the complete report. Maleh, who has been
advising the family of key witness Ziad Ramadan on legal
issues, was unaware that Ramadan had met with UNIIIC
investigators on December 1. Maleh noted that the SARG will
now be under enormous international pressure, but it is
unclear whether or not the SARG will understand the
situation. Maleh stressed the need to pressure the SARG, not
the Syrian people: "make them (the regime) feel like they are
in jail." He pleaded for the UNSC to target sanctions only
against individuals implicated in the Hariri assassination.
Maleh drew attention to the fact that Mehlis did not directly
characterize the SARG as uncooperative but instead described
it as not fully cooperating. He then noted that if the
regime is smart, it will follow Mehlis's recommendation,
arrest the five suspects, and make them available for
worldwide interrogation. He was unsure how the Syrian public
would react to the report.


8. (C) Fellow human rights activist and lawyer Rezan
Zeituneh was also distracted by the Tueni assassination,
noting to Poloff in a separate December 13 interview that
she had spent most of the previous day emotionally distraught
and distracted by the events in Beirut. Zeituneh commented
that the report was better than she had expected, following
weeks of speculation that Mehlis's investigation had stalled.
She was pleased that the issue of the sixth Syrian suspect
was clearly addressed as a postponement and not ignored and
that Mehlis acknowledged the issue of Hussam Taher Hussam's
testimony by showing evidence of witness tampering and
stating that Hussam's original testimony had been
corroborated by other witnesses. Zeituneh does not expect
the SARG to imprison the suspects as requested by Mehlis.
Zeituneh was also uncertain how the Syrian public would react
to the report.


9. (C) COMMENT: Unlike the previous alacrity with which the
SARG attacked the first Mehlis report -- within hours of its
release -- the regime seems to be attempting to keep most of
its powder dry this time around. Possibly warned by allies
on the UNSC like Russia and Algeria, and others, that it
should not be seen as attacking the report so as not to give
ammunition to its foes in the anticipated UNSC debate, the
regime has thus far merely committed to getting an official
response to SYG Annan in the coming days. However, with no
specific finding of non-cooperation and a perception here
that there is little new in the second installment, the
regime may feel for the moment at least that it has dodged a
bullet.
SECHE