Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05DAMASCUS5934
2005-11-14 13:26:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Damascus
Cable title:  

ASAD SPEECH CONTINUES TO REVERBERATE IN DAMASCUS

Tags:  PGOV PREL SY 
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O 141326Z NOV 05
FM AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5502
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD 
CIA WASHDC
NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 005934 


PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: ASAD SPEECH CONTINUES TO REVERBERATE IN DAMASCUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 005934


PARIS FOR ZEYA; LONDON FOR TSOU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: ASAD SPEECH CONTINUES TO REVERBERATE IN DAMASCUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen A. Seche, per 1.4 b,d.


1. (C) Summary and Comment: Damascus continues to buzz with
a range of often conflicting reactions to Syrian President
Bashar al-Asad's November 10 speech and with worry over its
implications for the future. Most contacts expressed concern
that the speech had been too confrontational, but noted that
it included signals that Syria was interested in "making a
deal," as long as the extended Asad family was protected from
the Mehlis investigation. The most pessimistic view of the
speech, by a contact who knows the regime well, is that the
regime "has grasped that there is no hope" and is opting for
defiance. Another contact close to the regime noted that if
the international community humiliated Syria and its armed
forces by insisting on Beirut as the venue for questioning
Syrian suspects, it could lead to chaos, a fate Syria would
share with others, he warned.


2. (C) Summary continued: A prominent religious leader
expressed disappointment with Asad's cynical attempt to use
the crisis to de-legitimize the need for political and
economic reform. Several more populist views applauded
Asad's assertion of Snational dignity and his refusal to
submit to Syria's humiliation. Most contacts called this the
most successful aspect of the speech but questioned the
strength of renewed public support for the regime and whether
Asad would be able to maintain it, given most people's
economic concerns, anxiety over the future, and long-standing
antipathy for the regime. End Summary.


3. (C) HARD-LINE SPEECH WITH NO CONCILIATORY PUNCH LINE:
Contacts offered a range of views on Asad's November 10
speech, with most acknowledging the speech's strident tone.
Independent MP Basil Dahdouh called the speech "too
confrontational." Some of the rhetoric was expected, as it
had become increasingly clear that the government felt
compelled to cease cooperating with Mehlis' demands.
Nonetheless, Dahdouh and his friends, who watched the speech
together with increasing alarm, kept waiting for "a
conciliatory punch line that never came." Overall, he
described the speech as "very disappointing," with some of
the Arab nationalist rhetoric seemingly out of a time warp
that betrayed a complete lack of appreciation for Syria's

diminished regional clout and the immense reach of U.S. power
in the region.


4. (C) Like others, Dahdouh pointed to indicators in the
speech that the SARG remains willing "to do a deal," but he
noted that the independent legal thrust of the Mehlis
investigation has overwhelmed the political likelihood of
such a deal. Dahdouh discounted Asad's implied threats to
sow chaos if Syria is humiliated, given Syria's weak regional
position, but acknowledged that Syria was entering "a very
dangerous period." The Christian MP questioned whether there
was any USG interest in communicating to Asad that he would
be shielded from legal consequences himself, as a way to
encourage his cooperation, but admitted that in his hard-line
speech Asad had to a significant degree tied his fate to that
of the six witnesses summoned to Beirut by UNIIIC head Detlev
Mehlis. Dahdouh worried that the speech may indicate that
Asad has fears that he himself could be in legal (and
political) jeopardy.


5. (C) REGIME REALIZES THERE IS NO WAY OUT?: Economist and
civil-society activist Riyad Abrash also took a gloomy view
of Asad's speech, insisting that it indicated the regime "has
finally grasped that there is no hope. The only option is to
stand up and confront its fate." Abrash dismissed Asad's
half-hearted expressions of willingness to continue to
cooperate with Mehlis, saying they were there "just to absorb
the shock" and to soften with "hints" what would otherwise
have sounded like a blunt refusal. He noted that the regime
is trying to get the Saudis and the Egyptians to plead with
the international community to accept "half measures" such as
an alternative venue for the interrogations.


6. (C) Abrash, a Sunni who served as a Deputy Minister of
Planning two decades ago, maintains by his own account --
despite his pro-U.S., pro-economic reform tendencies --
relatively close ties with senior security service elements
and has served as an informal advisor to Asad on occasion.
He claimed to have heard from his sources that in the run-up
to the speech, there had been "very active family
discussions" about how to proceed, often led by the
President's sister, Bushra, whom he described as very strong
and active behind the scenes. (Note: She is married to
Shawkat.) Abrash recounted that Shawkat had been heard
saying to associates "I will set Damascus on fire before I am
sent out of here."


7. (C) POLITICAL DEAL POSSIBLE, MINUS THE FAMILY: Al-Hayat
Damascus bureau chief Ibrahim Hamidi attempted to put a more
positive gloss on the speech, terming it "Asad's most
sophisticated speech to date," while acknowledging doubts
that "Washington is listening to any nuances." Hamidi said
the speech was full of signals that Asad was looking for some
kind of deal and that "everything, except the family, is on
the table." He pointed to Asad's expressed willingness to
cooperate on Iraq and to be supportive of whatever the
Palestinians accept as a political deal. The biggest mistake
in the speech was Asad's harsh language towards Lebanese PM
Siniora and towards Lebanon in general, said Hamidi, although
he noted that Asad, reflecting his strong feelings on the
subject, had over the past 18 months adopted a consistently
strident tone in public when speaking about Lebanon.


8. (C) ASAD BATTLING FOR SYRIA'S HEARTS AND MINDS: Asad's
repeated point that Syria is being targeted and humiliated,
its dignity under attack, was his attempt to yoke the fate of
Syria with that of the regime and to battle with the U.S. and
the international community for the hearts and minds of
Syrians. Like others, Hamidi termed the effort partially
successful. Hamidi said that MFA legal advisor Riyad Daoudi,
who had met with the Syrian leadership a few days before the
speech, said that he had urged full cooperation with Mehlis
as the only alternative. Daoudi told Hamidi that his view
had not prevailed.


9. (C) Foreign affairs analyst Dr. Imad Shueibi, who can be
counted on to speak for the regime, also pointed to "positive
signals" of cooperation in the speech, especially the
President's extended remarks on Iraq. Shueibi acknowledged
what he called "the fiery rhetoric" in the speech, saying it
was meant as a warning: If the international community wants
to humiliate Syria and its armed forces by insisting the
suspects be questioned in Lebanon, that means "you want a
weak regime and chaos. If there is chaos for us, there will
be chaos for everybody," Shueibi warned.


10. (C) WHAT HAPPENED TO REFORM? Sunni religious leader
Sheikh Salah Kuftaro expressed disappointment with the
speech, highlighting in particular Asad's cynical attempt to
de-legitimize the need for political and economic reform by
pointing to outside influence and condescension from the
West. The consensus among elite opinion is that Asad's
speech is a clear sign that the regime is "leading the
country to catastrophe," said Kuftaro. (Note: Kuftaro noted
efforts by the regime and its proxies to spread scurrilous
rumors about Mehlis, such as that Mehlis is a paid asset of
the CIA. He gave Polchief a copy of a CD that he described
as full of such propaganda, saying that a Syrian businessman
close to the regime was distributing 20,000 copies of the
CD.)


11. (C) Human rights activist Anwar al-Bunni told Poloff the
speech was "frightening." He expressed deep concern about
the future of Syria and about what the regime might do to
critics like himself, in order to keep its hold on power.


12. (C) ASAD SCORES POINTS ON SYRIAN DIGNITY: More populist
views indicated that Asad's speech was effective to a limited
degree in rallying Syrian public opinion to support the
regime. Several Syrians with whom Polchief spoke, including
a part-time UN driver and an Arabic language teacher,
pointed with approval to Asad's proud assertions of Syrian
dignity and refusal to submit to humiliation. One
acquaintance, not known for defending the regime, noted that
Syrians had been waiting to hear this note of defiance after
a long period in which their country had been insulted and
unfairly singled out, while neighboring Israel flouted with
impunity Security Council resolutions.

SECHE