ASAD FIRES PRO-REFORM ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAMASCUS 002165


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/28/2015
TAGS: ECON EFIN PGOV PREL SY
SUBJECT: ASAD FIRES PRO-REFORM ADVISOR

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Stephen Seche, Reasons 1.4 b/d


1. (C) Summary: On April 14, President Bashar al-Asad
sacked his French-educated and reform-promoting advisor Dr.
Nibras al-Fadil. Asad himself reportedly convinced Fadil to
return to Syria in 2003, after more than twenty years abroad,
to assist in moving the country forward. However, rumors of
Fadil's dismissal began circulating months ago in response to
public statements he had made that were critical of the
existing system and the slow pace of judicial, financial and
economic reforms. The timing of Fadil's departure, less than
two months before the much anticipated Ba'th Party
Conference, suggests he may have been pressing too hard for
approval of his reform proposals. In response, those
favoring the status-quo or more modest changes may have
demanded his ouster. End Summary.


2. (U) On April 14, Minister of Presidential Affairs Dr.
Ghassan Laham informed Dr. Nibras al-Fadil that President
Asad has instructed that his contract as an advisor to the
Presidential Palace be canceled, according an article in the
April 22 edition of the London-based, Arabic language daily
Al-Hayat. The article mentioned that Fadil had played an
important role in EU-Syria Association Agreement negotiations
and had worked as a coordinator on financial, judicial and
administrative reform. He is expected to return to France
where his wife and children live.


3. (U) Fadil was quoted in the same article as saying that
he hoped Syria would benefit from the economic reform plans
(completed in February 2005),financial reform plans
(completed in July 2004) and judicial reform plans (completed
in August 2003) that he had submitted to President Asad
during his tenure as a presidential advisor. He also
reportedly said that he regretted not having been able to be
more involved because of the nature of his job, the absence
of job specifications, lack of authority, and the weakness of
available resources.


4. (C) Rumors had been circulating for months that Fadil
would soon be fired, starting from the time of an October
2004 interview with al-Hayat in which he asserted that
judicial reform would not be possible "without a political
dimension," "defining the future of the country was not the
monopoly of any party," and "wrong practices that have
accumulated and become entrenched over the past
decades...must be corrected in a firm and bold manner."
Fadil also reportedly told a group of Syrian expatriates in
Dubai in March that, at its current pace, economic reform in
Syria would need about a 100 years. There has also been the
suggestion that Fadil's continued work as a private
consultant may have complicated his position as presidential
advisor. (Note: Many Syrian public employees supplement
their meager government salaries by working other jobs so, in
principle, Fadil's private consulting work should not have
been a problem, provided he did nothing to would reflect
badly on the President or other senior Syrian officials. One
contact said Fadil had used Asad's name improperly to attract
business in the Gulf for his consulting practice, angering
the President, but we have no corroboration of this claim.)
Citing current tensions in Syrian-French relations, another
contact asserted that Fadil's close ties to France may have
been a contributing factor.


5. (C) Comment: Fadil's post-dismissal remarks betray his
frustration with having worked so hard on so much for so long
but, in the end, seeing very little happen. He was viewed by
many as perhaps the most important advocate of reforms in the
SARG with regular access to Asad. With the upcoming Ba'th
Party Congress, Fadil may have concluded it was time to press
harder on securing agreement on some or most of his
proposals, However, as a French-educated expatriate more
than twenty years outside of Syria, he lacked a political
base beyond his relationship with Asad to support him. The
same had been true for former World Bank official and now
former Minister of Economy Ghassan al-Rifai, another
reform-minded shining light who quickly vanished from the
scene, his reputations in tatters. Some are now saying that
another one of the best apples has been removed from the top
of the crate, and the rotten ones below are generating little
enthusiasm from potential buyers. The lesson many reform
supporters are drawing is that sticking one's neck out for
reform in Syria, whether economic or political, remains
professionally risky and sometimes dangerous, even when the
reformers are close to Asad himself.

SECHE