NORWEGIANS SEE HOPE FOR LTTE-GSO AGREEMENT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 COLOMBO 000438

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS; NSC FOR E. MILLARD
PLEASE PASS TOPEC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV CE NO LTTE
SUBJECT: NORWEGIANS SEE HOPE FOR LTTE-GSO AGREEMENT ON
RECONSTRUCTION MECHANISM

REF: (A) COLOMBO 404 (B) COLOMBO 373

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASON 1.4 (B AND D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Both sides have been flexible
on negotiations for a "mechanism" for
distributing reconstruction assistance to the
North and East, and the Norwegians believe an
agreement is possible in the next few days.
Such an agreement would not only assist in the
reconstruction effort, but would have great
political significance. GSL and LTTE stressed
to Solheim their commitment to the Cease Fire
Agreement. Solheim toured other parts of the
country, seeking to build support for peace and
the Norwegian role. Solheim does not think the
Tigers will retaliate for the Kausalyan killing.
(We are not as sanguine.) If an agreement on a
mechanism is reached, the USG should praise it
publicly. Suggested text para 10. END SUMMARY.

"Mechanism" Deal Near?
--------------


2. (C) Norwegian Special Envoy Eric Solheim
briefed major donors Feb 28 on his week-long
visit to Sri Lanka and Norwegian Ambassador Hans
Brattskar also briefed on status of negotiations
between the LTTE and the GSL on a "mechanism" to
deal with reconstruction assistance in the North
and East. Brattskar, who has been brokering
this negotiation for the past two months, said
that a week earlier he had not been hopeful.
Now he was much more optimistic. He had
facilitated extensive talks on Friday and
Saturday and the two sides were now looking at a
common piece of paper. "If they both want it,"
Brattskar said, and no new issues come up to
disturb the process--like the killing of LTTE
leader Kausalyan--"it is quite possible they
will have an agreement in a few days."


3. (C) Brattskar noted that this progress was
the result of the hard work of the two parties.
While an agreement on a mechanism would be
necessary for fair and equitable distribution of
assistance in the North and East, it would also
have political aspects. It would be the first
time the LTTE and the GSL would cooperate on the
national level, and it would strengthen ongoing
cooperation at the regional and district level.
Brattskar said that if the mechanism is agreed
upon, donors will need to re-think some of their
reconstruction plans.

Political Significance of Mechanism
--------------


4. (C) Both Solheim and Brattskar stressed
again the political significance of a possible
agreement. Such an agreement would be limited
to tsunami assistance, and only in the affected
coastal belt. Solheim said that the progress
made was in part because the Norwegians forced
both sides to avoid issues which belonged in the
peace process itself. The formal participation
of the Muslims in the mechanism would also mark
a first in the peace process. Of course there
could still be problems even if an agreement is
reached, Solheim said, and any mechanism would
have to work on a consensus basis if it were to
be successful.

Building Support for Peace
--------------


5. (SBU) Solheim spent part of his week-long
visit touring areas of Sri Lanka and meeting Sri
Lankans whom the Norwegians have not concerned
themselves with previously. He went to both the
South and East (Galle, Matara and Ampara) and to
Kandy, where he met the monks who head two of
the most important monastic institutions in Sri
Lanka. The monks were supportive of the peace
process and the Norwegian role. "We should have
done this sooner," Solheim said, and also said
that they would do it again.

Support for Cease Fire
--------------


6. (C) Both government and LTTE officials
stressed to Solheim their commitment to the
Cease Fire Agreement. The LTTE was disturbed by
the Kausalyan killing, and believed it was not
done by the Karuna faction, but by others
working in collusion with the Sri Lankan
military. Solheim opined that one reason the
Tigers had not retaliated for Kausalyan's
killing was because of the statement protesting
the killing made by UN Secretary General Annan.
The Tigers have two assets, Solheim said:
military strength and international recognition.
Since they received recognition from the
statement, they did not need to use their
military strength. Would there be retaliation
in the future? "A good chance not" Solheim
said. Reverting to an earlier theme, Solheim
said that if there were no agreement on a
mechanism, the Cease Fire Agreement would come
under stress.

LTTE Visit to Europe
--------------


7. (C) Solheim said that an 8-10m member LTTE
delegation was to visit several European
countries in March. Solheim told them that they
should not come until they had agreement on the
mechanism. Solheim also warned them that they
would face increased questioning about child
recruitment following the recent report
delivered to the Security Council (more on this
report septel).


8. (C) COMMENT: The normally restrained
Norwegians were almost jumping up and down with
excitement (Norwegian style excitement, anyway)
because of the prospect of agreement on a
mechanism. They cautioned that the two sides
had "come 990 meters, but they still had the
last ten meters to go." Both sides are showing
unusual flexibility, however, and this might
actually happen. If so, we believe the
Department should issue a statement praising the
agreement. Suggested text below.


9. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: We are not as
sanguine as Solheim, however, that the Tigers
have foresworn vengeance for Kausalyan's killing
because of Annan's statement. The Tigers have
shown time and again that they will wait for the
time they think is right to take revenge. It is
much more likely that the prospect of the
mechanism is restraining them than some abstract
satisfaction at a UN statement. They know that
a killing now would make it much more difficult
to agree on a mechanism.

NOMINAL TEXT OF STATEMENT
--------------


10. (C) Since we have not yet seen the text of
the agreement, it is difficult to give a
specific response. Pending further information,
we think a statement should be along the lines
of:
The United States is very pleased that the
Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam have reached agreement on
a mechanism to coordinate reconstruction
assistance in the North and East of Sri Lanka.
We commend the flexibility shown by both sides
in the discussions leading to this agreement.
If implemented properly, this mechanism will
ensure that tsunami victims receive the
assistance they deserve on a fair and equitable
basis, without regard to ethnic or political
factors. We hope that successful functioning of
the mechanism will build confidence and trust on
both sides and stimulate progress towards a
political settlement.
LUNSTEAD