MALDIVES: SECENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000335

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS
NSC FOR DORMANDY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV EAID MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: SECENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER
PRESIDENTS BUSH AND CLINTON FEBRUARY 21

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SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Nearly one-third of the population of Maldives was
affected by the December 26 tsunami. A preliminary
assessment estimates total losses at about 55 percent of GDP,
with the greatest negative impact felt by the crucial tourism
industry. Entire populations on some islands were displaced
and had to be relocated to others, and the harbors, jetties
and communications infrastructure in one-third of the
country's 199 islands were destroyed. Despite these
challenges, parliamentary elections were held on January 22,
and pro-reform candidates made a solid showing. Your visit
offers an opportunity to demonstrate our commitment to
address the humanitarian crisis in Maldives while
underscoring our interest in encouraging democratic reform in
this moderate Muslim nation. End summary.

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TSUNAMI TOLL

SIPDIS
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2. (U) 83 people were killed in the December 26 tsunami; 25
are still missing, and nearly 12,000 remain displaced.
Nearly one-third of Maldives' entire population was affected
in some way by the disaster. Of 199 inhabited islands, 20
experienced severe damage, while the buildngs on another 13
islands were completely destroyed, forcing their populations
to relocate to other islands. Harbors, jetties and other
important communications infrastructure were destroyed in
one-third of the islands. A draft needs assessment by the
World Bank, Asian Development Bank and UN estimated total
losses (both direct and indirect) at between $345-380
million, or 55 percent of GDP. The greatest impacts have
been experienced in the tourism sector, which, according to
some estimates, accounts for as much as 70 percent of GDP
(since the disaster, arrivals are down by 80 percent) and
fisheries. The widely dispersed population (290,000 people
on 199 islands across 900 kilometers) poses special
challenges for rehabilitation/reconstruction efforts.


3. (U) The Government of Republic of Maldives (GORM)
responded quickly to the disaster, establishing a Ministerial
Committee and Task Force the day of the catastrophe that
succeeded in restoring communications to some of islands
within 24 hours and delivering emergency relief supplies by
the second day. The GORM has developed a comprehensive
reconstruction plan (which it hopes to fund through a
government-administered trust fund) that includes a blueprint
for low-cost but durable housing and a $21 million program
for livelihood recovery.

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U.S. ASSISTANCE
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4. (U) USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA)
to date has contributed $1.2 million to UNICEF for the UN
Flash Appeal for Maldives, as well as $163,000 (including
transportation) in emergency relief supplies. In addition,
the U.S. military donated 45,000 humanitarian daily rations
and transported another one million pounds of relief and
rehabilitation supplies from the capital to other islands,
while the Combined Support Group-Sri Lanka/Maldives
Detachment delivered nearly 350,000 liters of drinking water
to seven devastated islands. The Federal Aviation
Administration has arranged for the loan of navigational aids
for the civilian airport in the capital of Male', while the
U.S. Geological Survey will begin an assessment of the
structural integrity of some of the affected islands on
February 21.

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IMPLICATIONS FOR REFORM
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5. (SBU) Before the tsunami, relations between the GORM and
advocates of democratic reform had grown especially
embittered. The optimism of May-June 2004 (May saw the
election of a Special Majlis to consider changes to the
constitution; in June President Gayoom publicly endorsed some
liberalization measures) evaporated after the Government,
alarmed when an August demonstration in the capital became
violent, clamped down on democratic debate, declared a State
of Emergency and arrested numerous prominent reform
advocates, including 12 Members of the Special Majlis.
Although the State of Emergency was lifted in October, many
remained in solitary confinement until November. By
mid-December four of the MPs had been charged with sedition,
which carries a potential life sentence, and reform
proponents complained that GORM repression and intimidation
had dissuaded many potential pro-reform candidates from
running in parliamentary (or People's Majlis) elections
scheduled for December 31. Immediately after the tsunami,
the GORM dropped all charges and postponed elections until
January 22. Despite significant logistical challenges, polls
were held on time. While the observer mission from the
Commonwealth Secretariat stopped short of calling the polls
free and fair, it noted the election was "well organized and
enabled a large number of people to exercise their right to
vote." Pro-reform candidates made a particularly strong
showing; one of the Special Majlis MPs who had been charged
with sedition secured a seat in the capital. The new
People's Majlis meets for the first time on February 27.


6. (SBU) Reform advocates are obviously encouraged by the
results and hopeful that their new strength will help propel
democratic change. They are not the only ones. The desire
for reform in Maldives is deep-seated and widespread,
especially among younger members of the population.
Government efforts to temper that desire--or to discredit it
to us as part of a "fundamentalist" plot--so far have been
unsuccessful. We believe the President is sincere in saying
he supports reform--but at his own pace and on his own terms.
We have repeatedly advised our GORM interlocutors that
attempts to stifle pro-reform sentiment risk turning it into
something more violent and harmful. The recent elections and
post-disaster reconstruction offer the GORM and its opponents
a chance to start over. The GORM should be commended for
holding the elections so soon after the tsunami--and
encouraged to take the stalled process of reform forward.

LUNSTEAD