MALDIVES: PRO- AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT GROUPS CLAIM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 000297

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SA, SA/INS
NSC FOR DORMANDY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MV
SUBJECT: MALDIVES: PRO- AND ANTI-GOVERNMENT GROUPS CLAIM
VICTORY IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION

REF: COLOMBO 107

Classified By: James F. Entwistle, Deputy Chief of Mission. 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary: In the aftermath of the December 26
tsunami, the Maldivian government proceeded with its

SIPDIS
rescheduled Majlis ("Parliament") elections on January 22, an
event that occurred largely without incident. Pro- and
anti-government groups declared victory, with the
anti-government Maldivian Democratic Party claiming its
supporters won 18 of the 42 contested seats. Local and
international observers highlighted the efforts of the
Election Commission to create an enviroment conducive for
voting, but the Commonwealth Expert Team stopped short of
calling the elections "free and fair." The Government agreed
that there needs to be election reform and seems to embrace
the results of the January 22 vote -- opposition candidates
and all. End Summary.

Unexpected wins for opposition candidates
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2. (C) As the final votes were being tallied January 26,
members of the Maldivian Democratic Party met with DCM and
poloff to provide their election analysis. They declared
that MDP supporters had won 18 of the 42 seats up for
election. (Note: The MDP has a habit of co-opting
reform-minded politicians, among others, by declaring them
pro-MDP even if the individual has not expressed specific
support for the group. Given the lack of political parties
in Maldives and the tangle of political alliances, it is
difficult at best to ascertain the number of pro-MDP winners
in the January 22 vote. End Note.) Such a victory was a
surprise to party co-founder Mohamed Latheef, who said his
best guess before the elections was 14 seats for the MDP
candidates. (MDP's Mohamed Nasheed estimated that "hardline
supporters" of President Gayoom had won 14-15 seats.)


3. (C) MDP-sympathetic candidates won both seats on the
capital island of Male' and both seats in the southern Addu
Atoll, which represents "the urban population," according to
interlocutors. Government of the Republic of Maldives (GORM)
officials told the DCM during a February 2-3 visit to Male'
there was no surprise that opposition candidates did well in
these areas -- with large youth populations likely
dissatisfied with the status quo. GORM officials also noted,
however, that voter turnout in urban areas was low,
indicating general apathy that anything will change as a
result of a fresh parliament.

Amid praise, allegations of voter fraud
--------------


4. (U) Officials from the Commonwealth, the South Asia
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the
indigenous Maldivian Human Rights Commission (HRC) were
deployed on several atolls in addition to voting places on
Male' to observe the election. Local and international
obvservers commented on the January 22 elections by citing a
variety of positive and negative polling activities. The
Commonwealth Expert Team of observers stopped short of
calling the election free and fair, instead noting it was
"well organized and enabled a large number of people to
exercise their right to vote." Observers from the HRC said
it was "not an election that in general was free, unbiased or
removed form undue influence." In response to the HRC's
comments, the Information Ministry replied that it did not
accept the claims of the commission and called into question
the independence and objectivity of its monitors.


5. (C) The HRC and the Commonwealth Expert Team had
laudatory comments for the Elections Commissioner and his
staff. The HRC praised the efforts of Elections Commissioner
Ibrahim Rashad that "in terms of voting, increased the
independence given to the citizens." The Commonwealth Expert
Team similarly lauded Rashad and called on the government to
review the recommendations in its report to further
strengthen the electoral system. Ahmed Mujuthaba, HRC Chair,
commented to the DCM on February 3 that the Elections
Commission has conducted the count fairly and accurately.


6. (C) Despite the success of its candidates, the MDP also
countered that the vote was not free or fair, claiming ballot
boxes were stuffed while in transit from the atolls to Male'
for counting. MDP interlocutors also stated that the GORM
used tsunami relief activities to prop up government
candidates before the election, e.g., by putting candidate
stickers on boxes of relief supplies. Nasheed said that the
MDP win, in the face of such election tampering, served to
illustrate the strength of support for the group.


7. (C) In February 2-3 discussions with the DCM in Male',
GORM officials conceded that there were issues with the
election, but characterized the problem as "money politics"
in that any candidate, whether pro- or anti-government, with
money used personal resources to buy votes, give gifts, and
erect lavish posters and billboards. Attorney General Dr.
Hassan Saaed told the DCM that he was working on a campaign
reform package to address "money politics" to level the
divide between candidates with money and those without. The
Attorney General added that he hoped to ensure tabulations of
future elections took place at the atoll level to increase
voter confidence.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Maldivian citizens seem to be the real winners in the
January 22 voting. During the campaign, speculation was rife
that the government would engineer the election in its favor
or that the opposition would create some public demonstration
during the voting. Neither prediction was fulfilled.
Instead, voters created the conditions for real progress on
democracy-strengthening reforms to take place. Significant
numbers of pro-reform candidates won seats in the Majlis.
The government, for its part, has accepted the results and is
viewing positively the mandate to work with opposition
candidates to achieve President Gayoom's reform agenda. Even
President Gayoom called all the candidates to congratulate
them. The new Majlis will hold its first official session on
February 27. We hope the Majlis brings with it a new era in
Maldivian democracy that remembers the civil lessons of riots
and protests of the past year and a half. End Comment.
LUNSTEAD