SRI LANKA: PM RAJAPAKSE WINS PRESIDENCY IN CLOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 COLOMBO 001975

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PTER PHUM CE LTTE
SUBJECT: SRI LANKA: PM RAJAPAKSE WINS PRESIDENCY IN CLOSE
ELECTION

REF: COLOMBO 1971

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JEFFREY J. LUNSTEAD FOR REASONS 1.4(b) and (d
)

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SUMMARY
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1. On November 18, Election Commissioner Dayananada
Dissanayake announced that Prime Minister and Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse won Sri
Lanka's November 17 presidential election with a mere 50.3
percent of the total vote. The deciding factor in the
election was a Tamil boycott of the polls in the north and
east, enforced by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE). The Election Commissioner apparently did not grant a
request by the campaign of United National Party (UNP)
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe for repolling in two northern
districts. Our public statement must address the LTTE's
tactics. Please see para 5 for proposed text. End summary.

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ELECTION RESULTS
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2. (U) Polling in Sri Lanka's presidential election came to a
close peacefully on November 17 with minimal reports of
violence and no curfew imposed (Reftel). At 1:30pm local
time November 18, Election Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake
announced that Prime Minister and Sri Lanka Freedom Party
(SLFP) candidate Mahinda Rajapakse won, defeating opposition
candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe with a mere 50.2 percent of
the total vote, besting the United National Party (UNP)
candidate's total by only 180,000 votes. Dissanayake said
that 9.7 million out of 13.3 million eligible voters
participated in the election. (Note: UNP sources told us
that they filed a request for re-polling in the north and
east, but Dissanayake made no reference to this in his public
statement. End note.) Rajapakse, in his acceptance speech,
stressed the peace process and economic development as his
key priorities upon assuming office. Rumors are that he will
be sworn in around 6pm local time November 18, which,
coincidentally, is his sixtieth birthday.


3. (SBU) Also on November 18, local election monitoring group
People's Action for Free and Fair Elections (PAFFREL)
released a statement noting that in southern and central Sri
Lanka, the election was "the best conducted in recent past,
without major incidents of violence or electoral malpractice
being reported." However, PAFFREL's statement added that in
the North and the East, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) campaign of voter intimidation disenfranchised Tamils
and compromised democratic processes. In addition, our EU
and UK contacts told us that the EU election monitors will
not make public statements as yet because they are still
cataloguing election irregularities, including reported
purges of Tamil names from election roll sheets.


4. (C) Rajapakse's advisor Kanchana Ratwatte told polcouns in
a November 18 phone conversation that his Sri Lanka Freedom
Party's (SLFP's) allies, the Marxist, Sinhalese nationalist
Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP) and the Buddhist monk-based
Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU),are not keen on holding
parliamentary elections immediately but said that a decision
would be made within the next few days. Ratwatte also said
that a new Cabinet would be appointed immediately, with the
post of Prime Minister going to either an "alliance" (i.e.,
JVP) partner or Ports Minister and fellow southerner Mangala
Samaraweera as contenders on the short-list.

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PROPOSED USG RESPONSE
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5. (SBU) The Ambassador is meeting with the head EU election
monitor later this evening, and we have been told by the UK
High Commission here that the EU does not intend to release a
statement on the election until the EU monitoring mission
does so. Embassy recommends that the Department Spokesman
issue the following statement. Begin text:

The United States congratulates Mahinda Rajapakse on his
victory in the November 17 presidential election and commends
those citizens of Sri Lanka who peacefully exercised their
democratic rights and responsibilities. Among the many
significant and immediate challenges confronting the new
President will be the need to strengthen the Ceasefire
Agreement
and bring renewed vigor to the peace process so that progress
may be made towards a negotiated solution that meets the
aspirations of all Sri Lankans. The United States looks
forward to working with the new President on these important
topics and remains committed to maintaining the historically
close ties between our two countries.

The United States deeply regrets that Tamil voters in the
northern and eastern parts of the island did not vote in
significant numbers due to a clear campaign of intimidation
by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). As a result,
a significant portion of Sri Lanka's people were deprived of
the opportunity to make their views known. The United States
condemns this LTTE interference in the democratic process in
the strongest possible terms.
End text.

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COMMENT: PRABHAKARAN AS KINGMAKER?
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6. (C) As most interlocutors had predicted, the election was
indeed close, at least in the southern and central areas.
The real wildcard was the LTTE, with leader Vellupillai
Prabhakaran demanding that Tamils in the north and east
boycott the polls. Most analysts believe that the vast
majority of Tamils in those areas would have voted for
Wickremesinghe, a moderate with a proven track record in
terms of implementing the Cease Fire Agreement (CFA).
Through the boycott, the LTTE demonstrated the breadth of its
influence, and in essence threw the election in favor of
Rajapakse, the candidate many viewed as a hardliner on the
ethnic issue.
LUNSTEAD